Cool and Dry Pattern

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 66, Low 40): Sunny. Cool.

Columbus Day (High 73, Low 43): Sunny. Cool.

Tuesday (High 77, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 76, Low 51): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 78, Low 57): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 75, Low 60): Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 69, Low 53): Mostly sunny.

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 40): Soleado. Fresco.

Día de la Raza (Máxima 73, Mínima 43): Soleado. Fresco.

Martes (Máxima 77, Mínima 46): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 76, Mínima 51): Parcialmente nublado.

Jueves (Máxima 78, Mínima 57): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 53): Mayormente soleado.

Much Cooler Weather on the Way, Some Rain Tonight and Tomorrow

(Forecast)

Friday (High 78, Low 63): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Saturday (High 65, Low 46): Sunny. Breezy and much cooler.

Sunday (High 66, Low 39): Sunny. Cool.

(Extended Outlook)

Columbus Day (High 72, Low 44): Sunny.

Tuesday (High 76, Low 48): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 77, Low 50): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 76, Low 53): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 78, Mínima 63): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvian muy dispersos.

Sábado (Máxima 65, Mínima 46): Soleado. Ventoso y mucho más fresco.

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 39): Soleado. Fresco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Día de la Raza (Máxima 72, Mínima 44): Soleado.

Martes (Máxima 76, Mínima 48): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 77, Mínima 50): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 76, Mínima 53): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Cooler Air This Weekend, Staying Dry, Plenty of Sunshine

Wednesday (High 84, Low 58): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 82, Low 60): Partly cloudy.

Friday (High 80, Low 62): Partly cloudy with isolated showers possible.

Saturday (High 67, Low 50): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 68, Low 42): Sunny.

Columbus Day (High 72, Low 44): Sunny.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 46): Mostly sunny.

Staying Sunny and Mild Overall, Big Cooldown Coming This Weekend

Tuesday (High 85, Low 57): Sunny. 

Wednesday (High 84, Low 59): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 82, Low 60): Partly cloudy.

Friday (High 80, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower.

Saturday (High 69, Low 50): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 66, Low 44): Sunny.

Columbus Day (High 70, Low 45): Sunny.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 57): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 84, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado.

Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvia.

Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 50): Mayormente soleado. 

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 44): Soleado. 

Dia de la Raza (Máxima 70, Mínima 45): Soleado.

Mild Dry Pattern Continues, Cooler Temperatures Next Weekend

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Mostly sunny. Mild.

Monday (High 84, Low 60): Mostly sunny. Mild.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 59): Sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 82, Low 60): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 81, Low 61): Partly cloudy. 

Friday (High 79, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 75, Low 54): Mostly sunny. 

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 88, Low 70): Sunny and breezy.

Monday (High 85, Low 70): Sunny. 

Tuesday and Wednesday (High 84-85, Low 68): Sunny.

Thursday and Friday (High in mid-80's, Low in upper 60's): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High ~85, Low ~67): Partly to mostly sunny. 

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

Lunes (Máxima 84, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

Martes (Máxima 83, Mínima 59): Soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 81, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado.

Viernes (Máxima 79, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 75, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Soleado y ventoso.

Lunes (Máxima 85, Mínima 70): Soleado.

Martes y Miércoles (Máxima 84-85, Mínima 68): Soleado.

Jueves y Viernes (Máxima a mediados de los 80, mínima en los 60 superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima ~85, Mínima ~67): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Plenty of Sunshine and Mild Temperatures for a While

(Forecast)

Friday (High 85, Low 60): Sunny. Mild.

Saturday (High 86, Low 60): Sunny. Mild.

Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Mostly sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 84, Low 62): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 58): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 82, Low 60): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 80, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 80, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 78, Low 59): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 76, Low 54): Mostly sunny.

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Máxima 85, Mínima 60): Soleado. Leve.

Sábado (Máxima 86, Mínima 60): Soleado. Leve.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 84, Mínima 62): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 83, Mínima 58): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado.

Jueves (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

(Territorio de las Hojas de Té)

Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 78, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 76, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is offering SKYWARN classes ahead of our November peak in severe weather. They are also having Open House on October 14th. 

(Discussion)

Rain has been scarce in the region lately. Overall we had a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with only a few passing clouds at times. A few isolated spots saw a few raindrops, but that's been few and far between lately. The High in Cullman was 81 with a Low of 63 this morning. Jasper got all the way up to 86 but was cooler in the morning, Low of 57 down there. Fort Payne had a High of 82 and Low of 61. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 86 and a Low of 63. Almost forgot Haleyville in the shuffle there, they had a High of 85, Low of 61. Huntsville had a High of 85 and Low of 62 today. Decatur saw a High of 84, Low of 61. Gadsden saw a High of 82, Low of 59. 

Elsewhere around the region, Birmingham had a High of 83 after a morning Low of 65. Atlanta only got up to 77 today after a morning Low of 61. They did have a lot of cloud cover through the day. Nashville was actually one of the places that got some rain and even some thunder earlier today, High of 71 and Low of 65 there. By contrast, Memphis had mostly sunny skies and 91 degrees, morning Low of 71. And over in Tupelo, they got up to 88, morning Low of 68, under sunny skies. 

High pressure will settle into the region tomorrow, and skies will be sunny, not expecting any rain and not many clouds either, High near 85, overnight Low near 60.

If anything the air gets drier over the weekend as the ridge of high pressure amplifies. We'll see sunny skies with a High of about 85 or 86, Low down around 60. 

On Sunday it looks like the core of the high pressure will shift up into the Great Lakes region. Around here, once again mostly sunny skies with a High in the mid-80's and a Low around 60 or so. 

Then in the extended period, on Monday the high pressure center moves into New England. Should stay mostly sunny down here, and guidance is showing a slight decrease in temperatures, maybe more toward lower 80's on Monday for the High, the Low still about the same, lower 60's.

We will be between the ridge and a trough to the West going into Tuesday, and looks like we may get a shot of drier air overnight between Monday and Tuesday, which would allow Lows to fall into the upper 50's, still expecting a High in the lower 80's.

Could see at least a slight increase in clouds as that trough approaches on Wednesday. Low probably near 60, and the High again only making it into the lower 80's.

It may be Thursday before that trough drags a front into our region again. And even this you see from the GFS, the ECMWF was not as aggressive with it, as is often the case. Might reintroduce a 20% chance of rain here with a High near 80, Low near 60. Or may leave the rain chance out since only the GFS shows it and the overall pattern is dry. And this is Day 7. 

Let's peek at Days 8-10 just for fun. 

The GFS shows a swift frontal passage on Friday, while the ECWMF does not, times the front coming through the area more on Friday. So in light of this, reasonable to blanket both days with a 20% rain chance. High should stay around 80, Low near 60. 

Then on Saturday there is decent agreement in drier air moving back in here, and behind that front, could see temperatures cool a few degrees anyway, not sure how far we might dip into 70's on Saturday, but at least the morning might be slightly drier and cooler, back into upper 50's.

Then on Sunday the 8th of October, looks like mostly sunny skies and a High probably in mid/upper 70's, Low down in 50's, maybe our first real taste of Fall weather. 

But please understand that beyond seven days, even in a calm pattern like this, the confidence drops off sharply. I noticed one of the better television stations has dropped their 10-Day outlooks, and I may soon follow suit. Even when I was keeping up this blog regularly, I only tried one about once a week. I guess you can get away with it in the summer time. Overall I'd rather be more honest and above-board with people who visit this blog. That's why I call it the land of tea leaves sometimes, because beyond 7 days out, you're looking at general trends at best usually. Yeah, even in a summer pattern. 

We do have a couple of tropical storms in the Atlantic. 

Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to remain over open water.

And Tropical Storm Rina is not posing any threat to land either. 

So the weather is pretty calm right now. If we do see any rain over the next 7-10 days, it will probably be very light, about a ten of an inch or less, and more likely to be focused on our western counties. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia

So while I've been out of the weather loop lately, it looks like that model guidance roughly a week ago turned out to be right, and parts of the East Coast can expect some tropical storm impacts. 

 000

WTNT31 KNHC 221751

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023

200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... 

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF 

NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina

* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 

located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is 

moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This 

general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, 

followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track, 

the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina 

tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern 

Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind 

data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 

mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is 

possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) 

from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, 

recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 

60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North 

Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 

a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft

Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft

Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft

Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft

Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft

South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft

Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft

Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft

Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous

waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the

surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North 

Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading 

northward through Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, 

with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North 

Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across 

remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 

to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday.  

This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding 

impacts.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east

coast of the United States through this weekend.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through

Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

000

WTCA41 TJSJ 221810

TCPSP1

BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Ophelia Advertencia Intermedia Número 5A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL162023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR

200 PM EDT viernes 22 de septiembre de 2023

...CICLÓN SE CONVIERTE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA...

...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUANDO A TRAVÉS DE SECTORES 

COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...  

RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...32.7N 76.0O

ALREDEDOR DE 150 MI...240 KM SE DE CAPE FEAR CAROLINA DEL NORTE

ALREDEDOR DE 185 MI...295 KM S DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 345 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...

* Beaufort Inlet, Carolina del Norte hasta Chincoteague, Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay al sur de Colonial Beach, Virginia

* Río Neuse y Río Pamlico

* Porciones de Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Cape Fear, Carolina del Norte hasta Fenwick Island, Delaware

* Albemarle y Pamlico Sounds

* Marea Potomac al sur de Cobb Island

* Chesapeake Bay al sur de North Beach

Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...

* Surf City, Carolina del Norte hasta Beaufort Inlet, Carolina del 

Norte

* Resto de Pamlico y Albemarle Sounds

Un Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay un peligro de 

inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del agua que se mueve 

tierra adentro desde la costa, durante las próximas 36 horas en los 

lugares indicados.  Para una representación de las áreas bajo 

riesgo, favor de consultar el Gráfico de Vigilancia/Aviso de 

Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible 

en hurricanes.gov.Esta es una situación que amenaza la vida. Las 

personas localizadas dentro de estas áreas deben tomar todas las 

acciones necesarias para proteger la vida y la propiedad del aumento 

del agua y el potencial de otras condiciones peligrosas.  Siga con 

prontitud las instrucciones de desalojo y otras de los oficiales 

locales.

Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que se esperan condiciones 

de tormenta tropical en algún punto dentro del área bajo aviso.

Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una 

posibilidad de inundación que amenace la vida, por el aumento del 

agua que se mueve tierra adentro desde la  costa, en los lugares 

indicados durante las próximas 48 horas.  Para una representación de 

las áreas bajo riesgo, favor de consultar el Gráfico de 

Vigilancia/Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica del Servicio Nacional de 

Meteorología, disponible en hurricanes.gov.

Para información específica para su área, favor monitorear los 

productos emitidos por su oficina de servicio nacional de 

meteorología.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 

Ophelia estaba  localizado cerca de la latitud 32.7 norte, longitud 

76.0 oeste.  Ophelia se está  moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a 

cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h).  Se espera que este movimiento general 

continúe durante el próximo día más o menos,  seguido de un giro 

ligero hacia el norte.  En la trayectoria pronosticada, el centro de 

Ophelia se acercará a la costa de Carolina del Norte esta noche, y 

luego se moverá a través del este de Carolina del Norte, el sureste 

de Virginia y la Península de Delmarva el sábado y el domingo.

Los datos de los Cazahuracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea y 

los datos de viento por satélite indican que los vientos máximos 

sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 60  mph (95 km/h) con ráfagas 

más fuertes.  Es posible algún fortalecimiento ligero antes de tocar 

tierra a lo largo de la costa de Carolina del Norte.

Los vientos de intensidad de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia 

275 millas (445 km) mayormente del centro. La boya 41025 de NOAA en 

Diamond Shoals, Carolina del Norte, informó recientemente un viento 

sostenido de 47 mph (76 km/h) y una ráfaga de 60 mph (97 km/h).  Una 

estación de NOAA C-MAN en Cape Lookout, Carolina del Norte, informó 

recientemente un viento sostenido de 45 mph (72 km/h) y una ráfaga 

de 52 mph (83 km/h). 

La presión central mínima estimada es de 992milibares...29.29 

pulgadas.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Los mensajes clave para Ophelia se pueden encontrar en la Discusión 

de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT1 de AWIPS, encabezado 

WTNT41 KNHC, y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica 

peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca 

de la costa se inunden por el aumento de las aguas que se mueven 

tierra adentro desde la costa.  El nivel del agua pudiera alcanzar 

la siguiente altura por encima del nivel de la superficie en algún 

lugar dentro de las áreas indicadas si el máximo de la marejada 

ocurre al mismo tiempo que la marea alta...

Neuse y Bay Rivers...3-5 pies 

Pamlico y Pungo Rivers...3-5 pies 

Chesapeake Bay al sur de Colonial Beach...2-4 pies 

Surf City, NC hasta Chincoteague, VA...2-4 pies 

Albemarle Sound...2-4 pies 

South Santee River, SC hasta Surf City, NC...1-3 pies 

Chincoteague, VA hasta Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 pies 

Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 pies 

Delaware Bay...1-3 pies 

Las aguas más profundas ocurrían a lo largo de la costa inmediata en 

áreas donde los vientos soplan hacia tierra, donde la marejada será 

acompañada por olas grandes y destructivas. Las inundaciones 

relacionadas con las marejadas dependen del momento relativo de la 

marejada y el ciclo de la marea,  y pueden variar mucho en 

distancias cortas.  Para información específica en su área, favor de 

referirse a los productos emitidos por su oficina local de 

pronóstico del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología.

VIENTO: Las condiciones de tormenta tropical están afectando 

sectores de la costa de Carolina del Norte dentro del área bajo 

aviso y continuarán extendiéndose hacia el norte hasta el sábado.

LLUVIA: Se pronostica que Ophelia produzca de 3 a 5 pulgadas de 

lluvia, con cantidades localizadas de 7 pulgadas a través de 

sectores del este de Carolina del Norte y el sureste de Virginia 

desde hoy hasta el sábado.  A través de los sectores restantes del 

Atlántico Medio hasta el sur de Nueva Inglaterra, se pronostica de 2 

a 4 pulgadas de lluvia desde más tarde hoy hasta el domingo.   Esta 

lluvia puede producir impactos de inundaciones  repentinas, urbanas 

y de riachuelos pequeños.

OLEAJE: Las marejadas generadas por Ophelia afectarán gran parte de 

la costa este de los Estados Unidos hasta este fin de semana.  Es 

probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y 

corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida.  Favor de consultar los 

productos de su oficina local de meteorología.

TORNADOS: Algunos tornados son posibles comenzando esta noche hasta 

el sábado para sectores de la Costa del Atlántico medio.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM EDT.

$$

Pronosticador Reinhart

000

WTNT41 KNHC 221453

TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023

1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the 

southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and 

wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to 

around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a 

front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more 

concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min 

visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer 

to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the 

strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the 

frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a 

sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this 

morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity 

is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 

scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10 

kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward 

through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the 

western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of 

the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning 

and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The 

track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the 

slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC 

forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the 

cyclone center just inland in 24 h.

Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone 

appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf 

Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also 

facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h 

as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and 

develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has 

been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early 

Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to 

the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong 

upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by 

48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and 

ECMWF models. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 

southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm 

Warning area today into Saturday night.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation

over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,

including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico 

Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where 

Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should 

follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and 

small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic 

states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.

east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening

surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 32.3N  75.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  23/0000Z 33.2N  76.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 24H  23/1200Z 34.9N  76.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 36H  24/0000Z 36.8N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  24/1200Z 38.3N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  25/0000Z 39.3N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

Sunshine and Some Cool Mornings on the Way

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 80, Low 63): An isolated, lingering shower is possible in the morning. Becoming mostly sunny.

Monday (High 78, Low 56): Sunny. Mild and dry.

Tuesday (High 79, Low 54): Sunny. Mild and dry.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 81, Low 57): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 80, Low 59): Mostly sunny. 

Friday (High 81, Low 60): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 80, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 87, Low 73): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

Monday (High 89, Low 69): Sunny.

Tuesday through Rest of Week (Highs in upper 80's, Lows in upper 60's): Mostly sunny.

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 80, Mínima 63): Es posible una lluvia aislada y persistente por la mañana. Volviéndose mayormente soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 78, Mínima 56): Soleado. Suave y seco.

Martes (Máxima 79, Mínima 54): Soleado. Suave y seco.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 81, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 80, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 81, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 80, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Domingo (Máxima 87, Mínima 73): Mayormente soleado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada.

Lunes (Máxima 89, Mínima 69): Soleado.

De martes a resto de la semana (Máximas en los 80 grados superiores, Mínimas en los 60 grados superiores): Mayormente soleado.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 161453

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN 

PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.5N 66.2W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a

Tropical Storm Warning for Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands,

and portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Westport, RI 

to Portsmouth, NH, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,

including Grand Manan Island

* All of Nova Scotia

* Prince Edward Island

* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through

Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee

was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 66.2 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35

km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the

center of Lee is forecast to make landfall near or just east of 

the U.S./Canada border this afternoon.  Lee is then expected to 

turn toward the northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight 

and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane strength

when it makes landfall later today.  Weakening is forecast

tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390

miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a 

gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) was recently reported on Grand Manan 

Island in New Brunswick, Canada.  An observation in Eastport, 

Maine, recently reported 39 mph (63 km/h) sustained winds with a 

gust to 50 mph (81 km/h).  An observation in Lunenburg in Nova 

Scotia reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (81 km/h) and a wind 

gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch

areas in Atlantic Canada later today.  Tropical storm conditions

are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and

will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today

and tonight.  The strong winds are leading to downed trees

and power outages.  Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to 

continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin

Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the

Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic

Canada.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.

RAINFALL:  Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall 

amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern 

Massachusetts,  eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New 

Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream 

flooding.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated along the New England 

Coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the

wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT43 KNHC 161454

TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia.  Data 

from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure 

has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little 

to 65 kt.  Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger 

just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas 

of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast.  In fact, an 

observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently 

recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h).  Radar data from New 

England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions 

of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada.  

Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the 

left this morning.  The core of the cyclone will likely brush the 

western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and 

then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this 

afternoon.  After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is 

expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee 

across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core 

winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western 

portions of New Brunswick.  Steady weakening is expected after Lee 

moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late 

Monday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New

Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch

areas.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are

occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic

Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical

Storm Warning areas.  The strong winds are already leading to downed

trees and power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small 

stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern 

Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue

to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the

Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the

Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the

weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 43.5N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  17/0000Z 45.7N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  17/1200Z 48.3N  62.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  18/0000Z 50.8N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  18/1200Z 53.0N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression 15

 

000

WTNT35 KNHC 161455

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 46.2W

ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen

was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 46.2 West. The

depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30

km/h), and a general northwest or north-northwest motion is

expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the 

system could become a hurricane early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci

000

WTCA45 TJSJ 161457

TCPSP5

BOLETÍN

Depresión Tropical Quince Advertencia Número  5

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL152023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 

1100 AM AST sábado 16 de septiembre de 2023

...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL SE FORTALEZCA ESTE FIN DE 

SEMANA...

RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...19.7N 46.2O

ALREDEDOR DE 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 330 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical 

Quince estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 19.7 norte, longitud 

46.2 oeste.  La depresión se está moviendo hacia el norte-noroeste a 

cerca de 18 mph (30 km/h), y se espera que un movimiento general en 

el noroeste o nor-noroeste continúe durante los próximos días.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con 

ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento durante los 

próximos días, y el sistema podría convertirse en un huracán a 

principios de la próxima semana.

La presión central mínima estimada del avión Cazahuracanes de la 

NOAA es de 1006 milibares (29.71 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Ninguno

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.

$$

Pronosticador Hogsett/Bucci

000

WTNT45 KNHC 161457

TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023

1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The tropical depression has not changed much this morning. The 

center remains poorly defined, and visible satellite imagery 

indicates a broad region of low- and mid-level rotation persisting 

over a large area. Most of the deep convection is occurring in the 

northern semicircle of the broad circulation. Subjective Dvorak 

estimates from SAB and TAFB were 25 kt and 35 kt, respectively, and 

are similar to the objective Dvorak estimates. Based on the 

disorganized structure and the current intensity estimates, the 

intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A late arriving ASCAT 

pass suggests that this estimate may be a bit generous.  

Since the center of circulation is broad, the initial motion is 

somewhat uncertain and estimated at 330/16 kt. This general motion 

is expected to continue for the next couple days as the depression 

moves along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to 

the northeast of the system. Track guidance, including global and 

regional hurricane models, is in general agreement that the system 

will continue on a northwestward trajectory for the next several 

days. After 72 hours, the track forecast uncertainty increases 

somewhat as the system will begin to interact with a deep-layer 

trough. This trough interaction is expected to induce a more 

poleward shift in the track and eventually recurve the system toward 

the northeast by 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the 

prior forecast and in agreement with the consensus aids, TVCN and 

HCCA. 

The system is currently in a favorable environment for 

intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface 

temperatures expected to persist during the next several days. 

However, the timing of intensification will depend on how quickly 

the system is able to consolidate into a more compact structure. The 

current intensity forecast assumes that it will take 24-36 hours for 

this to happen, with the system expected to become a hurricane in 48 

hours. The current forecast reaches 95 kt by 72 h, although some of 

the regional hurricane models, including HWRF and HMON, indicate a 

more rapid intensification. ECMWF-SHIPS guidance continues to 

indicate a greater than a 40 percent chance of rapid intensification 

in the next 72 hours. By mid-week, as the system recurves to the 

northeast, it is expected to gradually weaken as southwesterly shear 

increases. The NHC forecast is lower than the regional model 

guidance and is similar to both the prior forecast and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 19.7N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  17/0000Z 21.3N  47.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  17/1200Z 23.2N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  18/0000Z 24.7N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  18/1200Z 26.2N  52.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  19/0000Z 27.5N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  19/1200Z 28.9N  56.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  20/1200Z 32.8N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  21/1200Z 37.0N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$

Forecaster Hogsett/Bucci