FORECAST:
Sunday (High 83, Low 64): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Monday (High 87, Low 65): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible.
Tuesday (High 86, Low 67): Mostly cloudy, muggy, and breezy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the day. Thunderstorms are likely in the evening and night hours, and some may be severe.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 78, Low 64): Mostly sunny.
Thursday (High 69, Low 53): Mostly sunny.
Friday (High 73, Low 49): Sunny.
Saturday (High 79, Low 54): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima: 83, Mínima: 64): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Posibles tormentas dispersas.
Lunes (Máxima: 87, Mínima: 65): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias/tormentas aisladas.
Martes (Máxima: 86, Mínima: 67): Mayormente nublado, bochornoso y ventoso, con posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas durante el día. Es probable que haya tormentas eléctricas por la tarde y la noche, algunas de las cuales podrían ser severas.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima: 78, Mínima: 64): Mayormente soleado.
Jueves (Máxima: 69, Mínima: 53): Mayormente soleado.
Viernes (Máxima: 73, Mínima: 49): Soleado.
Sábado (Máxima: 79, Mínima: 54): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.
NOTES:
Weather101 Classes continue thanks to the fine folks at the National Weather Service in Nashville.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham is updating some software, so several weather radio sites will be offline next week.
NOAA has an animated series to help kids learn about weather and climate. If your kid finds this too babyish, sign them up for one of the Weather101 classes. Free advice.
Since Tuesday/Tuesday night will carry some risk of organized severe weather again, now is a good time to go back over your severe weather safety plan. And that's just to be on the safe side. We are nearly into summer, but our primary severe weather season runs through the end of May.
The latest episode of the Weatherbrains podcast was an unusually good one, especially a lot of the things John Gordon had to say.
It is also sunny in Jasper. The temperature is 88 degrees. The dewpoint is 66, making the relative humidity 49%. Winds are variable at 6 mph. The pressure is 29.95 inches and falling.
Haleyville also has fair skies, but some haze has reduced the visibility down to 4 miles at this hour. The temperature is 85 degrees with a dewpoint of 58, making the relative humidity 40%. Winds are West at 8 mph. The pressure is 29.98 inches/991.2 millibars and falling.
Elsewhere around the area: Fort Payne is sunny and 84 degrees. Sunny and 86 in Decatur. Also 86 degrees in the Rocket City, but Huntsville has mostly cloudy skies. Also 86 in Muscle Shoals, but they are sunny. Tupelo is sunny and 88. Partly cloudy skies in Memphis and 86 degrees. And then the Music City, Nashville, is mostly sunny and 86 degrees. They have Southwest winds gusting up to 30 mph or so within the past hour.
And we have cleared out from one round of storms. But the cold front is still located to our Northwest, draped through basically the Western half of Tennessee and up through Kentucky. There are some isolated thunderstorms trying to reach severe limits through the Plains and Mid-South. Note one back in Oklahoma and another along the Louisiana/Arkansas state line.
Yesterday was quite a severe weather event, and we only caught some mild leftovers around here. Still there were scattered trees down, most notably blocking the road by Spirit Life Church of God in Cullman.
They took the radiosonde launch/sounding for the upper air at the Shelby County Airport at 5 AM this morning. We had strongly unstable air but weak wind shear to support any tornado threat, just enough wind shear to support a damaging wind threat.
Meanwhile at Nashville, the usual 7 AM balloon launch showed that the atmosphere has become very stable and calm after last night's storms cleared out.
At the moment, the severe weather is out in Oklahoma and Texas, but the SPC's link to current Watches is screwing up at the moment, so we'll just pass over that. Let's get on to forecasting our local weather.
Tomorrow is an interesting day where we've got high pressure in the region but also moisture/rain/storms trying to make it in here from the cold front out to our West and North. And it's sort of a standoff, not as much as we see in summer, but still a little bit of a standoff. We've had a lot of those lately.
The NAM shows a lot more moisture making it in here than the GFS.
Tomorrow looks like a setup for organized severe weather out in the Great Plains, especially over Kansas and into Nebraska. Supercells there will be capable of really large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
Around here, we only have a marginal threat for a few isolated storms being capable of damaging wind gusts or hail up to about the size of quarters.
Looks like a High of about 83 tomorrow, Low of about 64 tonight/in the morning. And I'm going to put the rain chance at 40%. Overall I think our rain and storms will be scattered. But a few of them could pack a punch, a lot like on an especially muggy summer's day.
The NAM shows a lot less moisture available then than the GFS does. I think it's closer to being right. Trimming rain chance back to 20% which is just the isolated rain you'd see on a typical summer day. Expecting a High of about 86-87, a Low of about 65-66.
And it looks like yet another organized severe weather threat shaping up for the Plains, Mid-South, and Midwest on Monday. Some significant damage may take place in those areas where you see the hatching. Especially Oklahoma, Kansas, into Missouri, things are looking rough. Around here, again we just have that marginal 5% risk of an isolated thunderstorm producing enough wind or hail to be considered at severe limits.
And while I'm not going to really sound the alarms about such things compared to the days we have when severe weather is more organized/higher-risk, it's a big deal if a storm like that happens to hit you. We had a church in Cullman last night where a lot of trees came down in the road. And all I can say is I'm glad that didn't happen on a Sunday or Wednesday night when people might have been trying to drive to or from.
Tuesday is when we'll really need to start watching it around here. Most of the day looks fine, the storms probably coming in during the evening/night hours.
The combination of unstable air and wind shear looks concerning going into Tuesday evening/night, and a forecast sounding around Smith Lake shows really strong instability, nearly 2,000 joules of CAPE. So as usual lately, that's at summerlike levels. Our wind shear is definitely enough to support a damaging wind threat but looks more marginal for a tornado threat. Some tornado risk will probably be there, like last night, but if this guidance is right, it should be on the lower end around here.
This is barely within the reach of the NAM now. So let's look at something else.
The GFS is showing an earlier onset time, between about 4-7 PM.
It is showing more moderate instability but stronger wind shear, especially the kind that would support tornadoes trying to form. The tornado threat still looks fairly isolated by this but a little more impressive than from the NAM. And you have to double-check the NAM when it's out to 72 hours and beyond. It's only a mesoscale model based on observations from North America. The GFS is a global model that initializes with observations worldwide.
The SREF is showing moderate instability similar to the GFS and sufficient low-level helicity to support organized severe weather in these parts on Tuesday night. This is valid at 10 PM.
Looks like Supercell Composite values of about 3-6 and Significant Tornado Parameter values of about 1-2. So this setup does seem to favor a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has gone ahead and issued an enhanced 30% risk of organized severe weather for most of the Tennessee Valley for Tuesday/Tuesday night. It looks like initially storms may form as supercells that track from Central/Northern Mississippi into Tennessee and Northwest Alabama. And then as the evening/night goes on, those will likely form into either clusters or a squall line. Last night, I'd say the mode went from supercells (in Kentucky and such places, also back in Missouri) to a squall line to then breaking up into two clusters of storms. So the mode might be messy like that. But especially with any of the initial supercell thunderstorms, large hail may be the main threat. Could see really large hail up to the size of golfballs in some places. And then as the evening/night goes on, the damaging wind threat will likely ramp up. And there will be a chance of some of these storms producing a tornado. This could be a fairly significant severe weather setup for some of us in the region, and it is well worth watching.
So Tuesday's forecast here: The day looks muggy and breezy, increasing clouds, could see scattered showers and storms during the day, about a 40% chance. Then showers and storms are likely at night, and some may be severe. Large hail is probably the main threat, but there is also a threat for damaging winds and/or isolated tornadoes. Some of these storms may still be supercells when they make it into North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. Though as the night goes on, they'll probably form into at least clusters and maybe a squall line.
Look for a High in the mid-to-upper-80's, a Low in the upper 60's.
Then Wednesday looks mostly sunny with only an isolated shower possible in the morning, hanging around. The High should be in the upper 70's, the Low in the lower 60's.
Mostly sunny again on Thursday with a High near 70, Low in the lower 50's. That is going to feel strange after our weather lately. You don't see that often in late May. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it may be September or October before we see more days like these in the extended forecast here.
High pressure settles strongly into the region on Friday. Skies will be sunny, and the High should be in the lower 70's, the Low near 50 or perhaps even dipping into the upper 40's for some of us.
The GFS has us still dry on Saturday, next weekend.
The ECMWF shows more moisture able to creep back in here. I think it's closer to the truth this go-round. But I think the GFS also has the right idea with the high pressure system holding strong. I think as we get into late May and early June, we'll see a lot more of just typical summer weather patterns.
The temperatures should rebound quickly, Highs in the upper 70's or even approaching 80 for some of us next Saturday. Looks like a Low in the lower 50's.
The main time to watch is Tuesday evening and perhaps into the night, when that cold front starts to finally push through here. The National Weather Service in Huntsville pointed out something I overlooked, something really important: The large hail threat will likely be limited by a wet-bulb zero height of about 11,000-12,000 feet even at the times the instability is highest. And the tornado threat may be limited by high LCL heights.
Even taking that into account, I'm going to mention that severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Tuesday evening/night - damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
And any time we may be dealing with a couple of discrete supercells before the storms merge more into a line or two, or some clusters, then we have to watch things a little extra carefully. I'd err on the side of caution for Tuesday. We're nearly through with our severe weather season, less than two weeks left in it. And I'd like to see us make it through it without any problems like they had in places like Missouri and Kentucky. Some of those deaths might have been unavoidable, if they were from a really bad tornado where people didn't have adequate shelter; it's too soon to speculate much on that. But that does happen sometimes. But I know I read at least one report of some people being killed yesterday when the winds blew a tree down on a car. And that sort of thing is almost always avoidable. So let's be careful about Tuesday/Tuesday night. We are almost into the summer months. And between now and then, we have some lovely weather coming up in the extended forecast, later next week.
Rainfall totals over the next week will average about a half-inch to one inch for most of us, but some folks, especially in Tennessee, could see closer to two inches.
If you'd like to support these weather blogging efforts, you can drop a dollar in the tip jar the link above. I've toyed with the idea of moving this over to Substack and/or maybe YouTube, but that's a long-term consideration. And frankly, I still often wonder if I'm insane for still doing this at all. My venture into college for meteorology was a long time ago and only lasted two years. But here we are.
I've got a neighbor who is giving away about seven or eight kittens that she is barely able to care for, as she is having a lot of serious health problems. But she let her two female cats get knocked up by a wandering local tomcat. And she asked me to tell people online about these kittens. I think she might have already given one away, at least had a lady wanting to come look at them. They are about three months old. If you are interested in adopting one or even coming and checking them out, get in contact with me. And I'll put you in touch with her. Her only concern is that they get loving homes. She's only going to give them to people she is confident will actually take care of them. She's adopted lots of cats in the past that came from backgrounds of abuse. I got the honor of taming one of those. Hopefully we can find homes for these.
On the human side of things, not related to weather, but related to public safety, please be careful at crosswalks. A lot of people don't watch out for pedestrians these days. When I first moved to where I live now, I made the mistake of crossing a busy intersection at night on the way home from walking to a bookstore. And even though I had the right of way, a guy came flying through a turn lane, slammed on his brakes a few feet way from me, and started cussing. So that was sort of a close call. That's the last time that's happened, many years ago now. I learned to be more careful. A lawyer even told me at another crosswalk to please watch these cars, because he knew how people drove around here; a lot of them just don't care.
Unfortunately, a member of my family had a worse outcome recently. She and her best friend were taking a leisurely stroll across a crosswalk on their lunch break, I believe, and were hit by a pickup truck driver who, from what I gather, could not have been paying proper attention. I don't know the full details yet, and I know the case is being investigated. The head injuries were treatable, and nobody died from this or had permanent disability. Even the lady with a broken arm is just having to take things easy and have help with daily tasks that require the use of more than one hand. It could have gone a lot worse. But much like people being killed by falling trees in their vehicles, this is something I would like to see less of in the modern world. "Distracted driving", whether it comes from text messages or even something really old-fashioned like somebody being goofy and picking his nose or grabbing a chew of tobacco instead of watching the road, causes real problems. And when I was looking for this incident in the news, I was surprised at how many news stories I found from the past few years where pedestrians have actually been killed in such incidents. It is fairly common around here (meaning North Alabama/up into Tennessee, this general region). And there is no sense in it. Driving that way is as airheaded as staying in a mobile home during a tornado, when you have better shelter nearby. With the unfortunate side effect that the people who do it put other people in danger too.
I like the idea of people taking leisurely walks and enjoying the kind of weather we'll have the latter half of next week . . . much better.
P.S. Added Weatherbrains note at 6:53 PM after publishing post. I forgot to include it at first.
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