FORECAST:
Sunday (High 90, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Monday (High 91, Low 70): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Tuesday (High 93, Low 71): Sunny. Hot and humid.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 94, Low 72): Sunny.
Thursday (High 93, Low 72): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Friday (High 92, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
BEACH FORECAST:
Sunday (High 90, Low 77): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Monday (High 91, Low 77): Mostly cloudy. Numerous intermittent showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Tuesday (High 91, Low 75): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Wednesday/Thursday (High in lower 90's, Low in mid-70's): Mostly sunny.
Friday/Saturday (High in lower 90's, Low in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente soleado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas aisladas.
Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado. Posibles lluvias o tormentas aisladas.
Martes (Máxima 93, Mínima 71): Soleado. Caluroso y húmedo.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima 94, Mínima 72): Soleado.
Jueves (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.
Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.
Sábado (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.
PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:
Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 77): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.
Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 77): Mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas intermitentes.
Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas dispersas.
Miércoles/Jueves (Máxima ~93, Mínima ~76): Mayormente soleado.
Viernes/Sábado (Máxima ~92, Mínima ~77): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.
So my sick and twisted obsession with the weather continues, even though I should be more concerned with trying to hear Shenandoah from the farm this evening. If anyone is unfamiliar with their incredibly beautiful (and at other times jamming . . . but I prefer their slow songs) music, here is a good sample to get you started. I wouldn't have paid to see Kid Rock last night if nobody else I liked was on the bill, but I'd pay double (if my nose was running money, honey) to see Shenandoah even if they were the only act on the bill. Neither Kid Rock nor Nickelback can compare to that little group from Muscle Shoals. The few songs of theirs I know on the guitar are among my favorite go-to's that always put me in a better mood. Along with Clay Walker, they would have been the main draw for me this go-round. And of course Hank Jr. is always good, puts on a good show, has some good songs that everybody knows. Of course none of them can quite compare to the lovely Sara Evans, who helped found the whole shindig many years ago.
Well, okay, Shenandoah's music is as good, but they are not as easy on the eyes. Might be a different story for the ladies going to the Rock the South festival, they might like the looks of the Shenandoah dudes for all I know. The only time I got to go there, I mainly went to see Sara Evans. And it was worth the major sunburn. She seemed kind of bored, but her voice was still lovely. As for her physical features which were also lovely, well, I try to keep this site family-friendly most of the time, so those will not be described in detail. Use your imagination if you don't feel like checking out one of her music videos . . . moving right along . . .
So it's actually after 3 PM but the latest observations are from about 2:30 PM CDT. While I'm still on a computer with limited functionality, I'm going to do more words than graphics and not jump around with as many observations as I did when working with a smooth-running laptop.
But we've got mostly sunny skies, a few clouds in Cullman right now, a temperature of 90 degrees, or 89.6 if you want to get nitpicky. I tend to round to the nearest whole number. The dewpoint is 75 (technically 75.2), which makes the relative humidity 63%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour and have often just been calm today. The pressure is 30.13 inches and falling slowly at the moment.
And the Heat Index is actually 100 right now, was 103 within the past couple hours. So I think these days, they have places at that festival for people to go in and cool off, get something to drink, like a special tent for that. But we're getting into the toasty part of summer right at the time of the Solstice. And there is a Heat Advisory covering mainly Northwest Alabama. It does not include Cullman County yet, but give it time.
I've often heard broadcast meteorologists (especially James Spann) say that heat safety is really common sense. And this was a view shared by a member of my family who was about the best mechanic you could ever take your car to, good at his job and very honest. One day I asked him (since I had no a/c in my car, and not all the windows would roll down) if it was hot enough that day to get a heatstroke. (I didn't have a "smart" phone yet and really couldn't get online and check the weather.) His reply was, "Yeah, if yer styoopid an' stay out in it!"
Personally, I don't think everybody that gets sick in the heat is just being stupid. I knew a very intelligent young lady who was a schoolteacher who got heat exhaustion before joining me at a concert in Huntsville back when I lived there. She just didn't realize how hot it was getting and didn't drink enough water. And got a little bit sick and tired. The concert hall didn't have much air conditioning, so that made it worse. And that can happen really easily for people just going to Six Flags, much less music festivals where if the music is good, it takes your mind off everything else.
Anyway, let's look at the radar and everything.
It has started to rain, even though the rain is really isolated right now.
And we actually have a Special Weather Statement for a strong thunderstorm between Cullman, Eva, Baileyton, and Holly Pond. How's that for luck on a mostly dry day . . . I guess no summer days are really immune from a stray shower or storm.
So we have an upper-level ridge, some pretty strong surface High pressure just to our North/Northeast up in Tennessee and into the Carolinas. And that combined with Gulf moisture is bringing us the mostly sunny skies and muggy air, isolated showers and thunderstorms today.
Tomorrow looks much the same, except a "heat bubble", strong closed High pressure system is expecting to form in the upper atmosphere, making it trend even hotter than today.
The NAM shows almost no rain, where the GFS was showing at least some scattered rain, enough moisture for it.
And I'm just going to forecast a 20% chance of rain, more sun than clouds overall but definitely a mix, a High near 90, Low near 70. That may not be much better than a climatology forecast, but that's what kind of day it looks like. The weather does get kind of boring around here in the summer months. But frankly, after how busy this May was, I don't mind.
And they had some major severe weather in the Midwest yesterday too, several tornadoes that did a lot of damage along with a derecho damaging wind event. So I'll take the dog days of summer over that.
And frankly Monday looks about the same, maybe increase the High by a degree or two.
And yes, that is the way the models are trending. Will take rain chances out of the forecast for Tuesday, because I think the chance is 10% or less for any one spot getting any rain. And frankly, people might see it as a temporary relief if they did get a shower or storm. Looks like a High in the lower 90's, about 93, Low of 70 or so. And the humidity could make this a real problem for people who have to be out in the hottest times of day, if their bodies are not used to it. So pay attention to any of those Heat Advisories that are issued and use your good sense about pacing yourself. Maybe check on other people around, especially older people.
And a friend of mine told me recently that he saw a news story where people said something like they took all their valuables into a store but forgot their kids in the back seat of a hot car. And he was saying, hey, the kids should be the most valuable thing. But not to get on a soapbox, just saying, an awful lot of people in our country do die every year from being left in hot cars. John Gordon, who recently joined the Weatherbrains podcast as a regular after retiring from the National Weather Service, coined the phrase, "Beat the heat - check the back seat!"
And it's true. I've also heard of it happening to pets a lot. Nobody plans on that and wants it to happen. But people can basically suffocate or have a heatstroke quicker than you might think. Even though it's common sense, more people end up dying from extreme heat than tornadoes, hurricanes, or even lightning or flooding every year. That blew my mind when I first started taking SKYWARN classes.
It looks like by Thursday the upper-level pattern will change to just more open ridging.
But Wednesday looks like another sunny, hot day, High in the lower 90's, maybe mid-90's for a few of us, Low of about 70 or so.
And then Thursday the temperatures might start to moderate by one or two degrees at a time. Still expecting a High in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's, or close to 70.
Will reintroduce a 20% chance of rain for Thursday.
And will keep that going for Friday and Saturday, just that minimal summertime 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
And we'll see Highs of about 90 or so, Lows of 70 or so. It won't be much of a cooldown. It's just that Tuesday and Wednesday look extra hot and muggy without much chance of seeing isolated rain.
The tropics are not expected to do anything around here through the next week.
Though NOAA does predict an active season based on above-average ocean temperatures. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if that forecast verified. But for now, let's relax and enjoy the calm, is my attitude. Sometimes that stuff doesn't really get very active until August or September. So I wouldn't sweat it for now.
The only thing if you are going to the beach soon, it might be a good idea to brush up on how to stay safe in rip currents. Most people don't know that. And I did know a family that got caught by one a few years ago, off the coast of California. The man of the family had to be rescued by a lifeguard, while his daughter was able to float with it and swim to safety. So it's valuable to know. Things like shark attacks get all the press, I guess, but you're a lot more likely to have problems from something simple. And since it's real life, not a Mario game, if you sink and don't come back up, you know, you don't get another chance. So it's sort of like the hot car thing. I'd rather say something about it just as prevention, like if somebody ever does get caught in one, maybe they've read up on it and know what to do.
As you'd expect this time of year, our average rainfall totals locally are going to stay really light.
And I still struggle with the Spanish translation part of the forecast, which probably matters to no one but me anyway. Duolingo is a fine program when other things are not competing for time and attention. I've lost all but one of the books I was learning the language from when I was a kid. And I talk too slow to learn from native speakers around where I live, it seems. But I'll save the jokes about Southern Spanish for another time.
The Weatherbrains interview with Max Velocity was worth listening to. And I echo his sadness over the rough Midwest outbreak that just happened. I didn't catch his coverage, but I'm sure he did a fine job as usual.
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