Seasonably Hot with Lower Humidity for a Couple Days

FORECAST:

Thursday (High 88, Low 65): Mostly sunny. Patchy fog is possible in the morning, but humidity levels should be low. 

Independence Day (High 91, Low 67): Sunny. Seasonably hot but with relatively low humidity.

Saturday (High 92, Low 70): Mostly sunny. Seasonably hot.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 91, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 89, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Thursday (High 93, Low 74): Sunny.

Independence Day (High 93, Low 74): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 92, Low 76): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 90, Low 74): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of numerous showers/thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday (Highs ~90, Lows ~75): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 65): Mayormente soleado. Posible niebla dispersa por la mañana, pero la humedad debería ser baja.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 91, Mínima 67): Soleado. Calor típico de la época, pero con humedad relativamente baja.

Sábado (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado. Calor típico de la época.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Domingo (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Parcialmente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Martes (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Miércoles (Máxima 89, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Jueves (Máxima 93, Mínima 74): Soleado.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 93, Mínima 74): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 92, Mínima 76): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 74): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de numerosas lluvias/tormentas.

De Lunes a Miércoles (Máximas ~90, Mínimas ~75): Parcialmente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

DISCUSSION:

Aside from some fog this morning, we had a mostly sunny day in Cullman with a High of 88 and a Low of 70. 

The cold front is down to about Dothan, which just doesn't sound right for the beginning of July. But weather and even climate are variable. We've got some high pressure moving in from the Mid-South that will dominate our weather for most of this forecast period. 

Tomorrow looks like another mostly sunny day with a High near 87-88 and a Low of about 65-66. Could see some fog in the morning again.

Then the 4th of July looks sunny with the High in the range of about 89-92, the Low about 65-68. 

Actually looking mostly sunny again on Saturday with negligible rain chances, too low to even worry about. Look for a High in the lower 90's and a Low in the upper 60's. 

By Sunday we'll bring back that typical isolated 20% chance of rain that comes with nearly every summer day around here, look for a High near 90 or so, Low near 70. 

Similar weather for Monday with just isolated showers and storms that cook up in the heat and humidity. Most of us won't see any rain, just have a mix of sun and a few clouds, typical heat and humidity for this time of year. 

Global models suggest enough increase in moisture to justify a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday, similar temperatures, Highs near 90, Lows near 70. 

And we'll maintain that same rain chance for Wednesday, even though some guidance wants to bump the rain chance up further. Even with this recent cold front, the coverage of rain across our region was overblown by the models. So I'm not even bumping the PoP up to 40% just yet for Wednesday. 

Having said that, we do have a 40% chance of something developing this weekend or next week in the tropics from the remnants of this cold front and its associated surface Low. It is currently looking more likely to affect the Florida Bend/Peninsula into the Atlantic than to be a big issue for the Gulf. But it's just something to watch. The chance of tropical (or even subtropical) development here is moderate at this point. And somebody could get some pretty decent rain from it, wherever it forms (if it does) and drifts. 

It's not anything to get really worked up about or let it disrupt any vacation plans. 

Hurricane Flossie is moving Northwest at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. And it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm, then a tropical depression, before dissipating this weekend over the open water. Any of those watches and warnings that were in effect for parts of Southern Mexico from this system have been discontinued. 

Sometimes the news is good, what can I say?

Our rainfall totals will average generally less than half an inch up this way for this forecast period, pretty typical for early July. Obviously if that subtropical (or tropical) Low does get going over Florida or the Atlantic, then whoever gets the brunt of it could have more significant rainfall. 

If you'd like to support this blog, hold off on "buying me a coffee" via that website. I'm working on migrating it to Substack, like I toyed around with a few months ago. I think I can do it long-term over there with a modest subscription fee. And you can still get the bullet points for free over here. I may try that as soon as tomorrow. Where the detailed discussions will be over there behind a paywall, albeit a modest one. And this will simply have the cliff's notes form of the forecast and I guess whenever there is a need for real-time updates on storms. Which doesn't happen that often in the summer, but will again in the late Fall usually. I've struggled for a long time trying to decide how to make this blog a professional effort, and I think Substack is the next logical step in that direction. It also allows audio forecasts, which I can't do here. A lot of people might find those useful. And a lot of people would rather hear something than read it. 

A friend of mine lost an uncle today who sounded like one of the sweetest guys in the world, just really warm and sharing with the whole family. For the most part, I'm going to try to keep personal notes like that off this blog in the future. But for now, this is still pretty low-tech and home-grown. So I'll just acknowledge the sadness of it, someone fighting for months in the hospital . . . and sometimes as a relative of mine put it (when her husband was dying many years ago), it is simply a battle you are not going to win. So our weather is calm. To those of you who can, please savor as many summer days (on a front porch or elsewhere) with the people you love, and occasionally remind yourself (to borrow a line from Kurt Vonnegut): If this isn't nice, what is?