Saturday (High 86, Low 69): Isolated lingering showers possible in the early morning. Mostly sunny and breezy the rest of the day.
Sunday (High 84, Low 67): Mostly cloudy and breezy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Monday (High 87, Low 66): Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Tuesday (High 86, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Wednesday (High 78, Low 68): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday (High 69, Low 55): Mostly sunny.
Friday (High 73, Low 49): Sunny.
Sábado (Máxima 86, Mínima 69): Posibles lluvias aisladas y persistentes por la mañana temprano. Mayormente soleado y con brisa el resto del día.
Domingo (Máxima 84, Mínima 67): Mayormente nublado y con brisa. Posibilidad de numerosas lluvias y tormentas.
Lunes (Máxima 87, Mínima 66): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Posibilidad de lluvias o tormentas aisladas.
Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 67): Parcialmente nublado con 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.
Miércoles (Máxima 78, Mínima 68): Mayormente nublado con 50% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.
Jueves (Máxima 69, Mínima 55): Mayormente soleado.
Viernes (Máxima 73, Mínima 49): Soleado.
This is going to be a quicker forecast just hitting the high points since we do have some potential for severe thunderstorms overnight.
So before we go any further, here is a review of severe weather safety. We are not through the end of May yet, and we can still have severe storms once in a while in the latter half of May. It certainly has happened before, many times over the years and decades actually.
That front is stalled out (or at least moving very slowly) through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The parent Low is way up in Minnesota. And there's actually another cold front up there in the Midwest.
This is a potent severe weather outbreak. Between Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, we've got 21 confirmed tornadoes reported so far today. There have been some great videos on social media of some of those tornadoes. Ryan Hall is doing one of his streams, and I believe he's actually located in Kentucky, best I remember.
There is a Level 4/5 Moderate Risk of severe weather outlined for mainly Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee the rest of tonight.
Then for a much broader area, including the bulk of Tennessee, there is a Level 3/5 Enhanced Risk of severe weather.
Our risk in North Alabama . . . we'll let's zoom in and look a little closer.
Most of us have a Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. And then as you get down to Cullman, Jasper, Arab, Guntersville, up to Rainsville, it's a Level 1 Marginal Risk.
Around here, it's more likely that we'll see damaging winds and instances of severe hail (at least the size of a quarter) within the squall line. But notice that the hatched areas for both wind damage and large hail have expanded. And this means a chance of more like golfball-sized hail or winds that could get up to about hurricane force and do more than tree and power line damage. I notice the SPC has adjusted those areas farther South than what they had yesterday. They're concerned with some supercell thunderstorms even if the storms are forming into a squall line.
Once again, let's take a closer look. It's a close shave, but for the most part, it looks like the supercell threat is staying on the Tennessee side. North Alabama has more of the basic 15% risk for severe winds/hail. These would be winds more like 60 mph or so or hail more the size of quarters. And once again, for Cullman/Jasper up to Rainsville, the threat looks more low-end.
If you get a warning tonight, I'd go ahead and go through your tornado safety plan. Even if you don't hunker down with a helmet or a bunch of blankets or whatever, I'd get into that lowest, most central part of your home, and don't stay in a mobile home. Stay away from windows. Just do the basics.
As of 7 PM CDT the atmosphere sure was primed for severe weather in Nashville, with CAPE (surface) all the way up at 3,000 joules/kilogram! Helicity values are in the 200-300 range even at the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere. Lifted Index is -12. Supercell Composite is 18, Significant Tornado Parameter is 5. Temperature is 81 with a dewpoint of 71. And there is an inversion layer of warm air at about 800-850 millibars. It looks like that will be overcome within the next hour or two. The hodograph has a tornado look.
Down at Birmingham, the 7 PM balloon launch showed really strong instability, still summertime-level instability. The wind shear is a lot weaker, and the tornado threat is minimal. Plus these storms are farther away from Birmingham. So I'd be more concerned with large hail down this way, maybe some damaging wind gusts. And the instability may be a lot less by the time the storms arrive. The storms are getting close to Nashville.
In fact, as I've been writing this, a new Tornado Watch has come out. And it includes the bulk of the state of Tennessee, certainly all our bordering counties of Southern Middle Tennessee. This watch goes until 3 AM.
They are concerned with a squall line (as you can see on the radar image, up there in Kentucky) as well as the chance for a couple of isolated supercells in the mix as well. In any supercells, even if they form within a break in the squall line, someone could see an isolated instance of extra-large hail, significant wind damage, or even a tornado that does more significant damage than the average. The supercell potential is greater in Northern TN, but anybody who goes a Tornado Warning tonight, I'd get to that lowest, most central room (or hallway) in your home, away from windows. And if you can, protect your body in case of falling or flying debris, especially your head. Just to be on the safe side. Several tornadoes occurred with this system earlier today. And a Severe Thunderstorm Warning means a storm can be dangerous too. The winds have to be at least 58 miles per hour (50 knots) or the hail at least an inch in diameter (quarter-sized) for that to be issued. Or it has to look that way on radar, at the very least. So please take those somewhat seriously too. At minimum I'd move away from windows. And if you are on a top floor and can easily get down to the lower floor, that might be a good idea. Especially if there are trees around or other things that could fall into the roof of the house.
Mobile homes are a tough judgement call with regard to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. My advice to people is to go to a public shelter or if you're lucky, a friend's sturdier house when the Tornado Watch comes out. Or if you want to wait until later, leave for that shelter when the squall line gets close enough that you know you're going to have to shelter somewhere. During a Tornado Warning, I absolutely would not stay in a mobile home. Even lying in a ditch outside would be safer in a tornado than staying in a trailer. But with straight-line winds and hail, I've been in mobile homes before when those kinds of storms were coming through. It was unnerving. But I'd rather people not be. Not if they can help it. The time I'm thinking about that sticks out in my mind the most, I was with someone elderly who had a hard time getting around anyway. And the storm blew up really fast in the summer. We had some big limbs come down in the front yard and had hail blowing at the sliding-glass doors.
To lighten the mood, another family member was up at Smith Lake that day. He was really shaken up by the tree damage, and when I came home the next day, asked me, "You SURE you wanna' park under that frickin' tree?!"
But seriously, be safe tonight, especially if you're up in Tennessee.
Now let's look at the forecast.
Over the next couple days (I'm just going to keep this forecast simple since we've got a threat for high-impact weather tonight . . . even if the risk is on the lower end for a lot of us, it's definitely enough to respect) this front is going to stay more-or-less stalled out.
Isolated showers may linger in the early morning tomorrow, but overall it looks like a mostly sunny and breezy day, High of about 86-87, Low of about 68-69.
Going with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with about a 50/50 shot of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm during the day. Look for a High in about the 83-85 range, Low between about 65-67.
Monday it looks like as things shift around we'll only have about a 20% chance of rain (like a typical summer day) with a High in upper 80's, Low in mid/upper 60's.
At some point between Tuesday and Wednesday we'll finally get a cold front passage, looking more like Wednesday on latest model runs, sort of condensed into these WPC graphics here simplifying the data and showing the position of the fronts/pressure systems.
Going to forecast a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday and then bump it up to 50% for Wednesday. A lot of the rain may come overnight between those two days.
It looks like any organized severe weather risk with this one may stay to our North and West. But that's a close call. And we'll have better clarity on that after tonight's storm system is in the past. The models can make better predictions when they don't have to estimate the atmosphere behind this first round.
By the way, any chances for stronger storms beyond tonight are looking marginal, to the point I'm not gonna' worry about it. You can have that even in the summertime. And it just isn't worth alerting people all the time IMHO. But an organized thing like tonight is worth calling attention to.
Looks like a High in the mid/upper 80's Tuesday, Low in mid/upper 60's. Then Wednesday it looks like a High in the upper 70's, Low in mid/upper 60's.
Behind the front, Thursday and Friday of next week, we're going to have a refreshing burst of cooler, drier air. Probably some of the last cool morning we see for a while. We're getting close to Summer.
Thursday looks mostly sunny with a High near 70, Low in mid-50's. Then Friday it looks like we start the day near 50, and some places (especially into Tennessee) could see upper 40's, then warming into the lower 70's under sunny skies. So if you've been needing to do some work outside, these two days are the time to plan it, if it can wait that long. Weather doesn't get much better than that for late May.
Our rainfall totals should average 1-2 inches over the next seven days.
Let's take another look at that Tornado Watch in Tennessee and the latest radar trends.
It actually includes parts of Northern Mississippi as well. No Alabama counties are included yet, but a Tornado Watch technically means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes, in and close to the watch area. So we all need to have a healthy respect for the weather tonight. If you don't have a weather radio, then please make sure you have your cell phone set so that a Wireless Emergency Alert can wake you up. If by some chance you don't have a cell phone, then at least leave the radio playing on a station that will cut in for severe weather. I know the NPR stations do - 90.3 FM for Birmingham, 89.3 FM for Huntsville. It's nearly impossible to sleep through that EAS activation tone that they cut in with. If you find the music boring, so what . . . the point is to get some sleep and then wake up if you are in danger.
The squall line is working into Northern Tennessee now. There is a threat for damaging winds, large hail, and yes, isolated tornadoes with this squall line. So if you get a warning tonight, get to the safest place you can. Look out for people you know who live up that way, if they might not have a way to wake up and get the warning.
I finally got a chance to listen to Weatherbrains #1008, and I have to admit, it lived up to the hype. It is one of the best episodes I've ever heard of that podcast, and I've listened sporadically since they started it in 2006. There were times I listened every week, especially when I was in college for a couple years. And this really was exceptional. I am so glad that they got John Gordon on that show. They need some people who shoot straight more (besides Troy Kimmel) to fill in the void left by Kevin Selle and Brian Peters leaving the show some time ago. Tim Coleman was also good on there because he spoke his mind a lot of times when he felt there was a lack of common sense going on with something. He actually got "buzzed" by James Spann one time for saying that he wondered if every trailer park should have to have a tornado shelter; that was considered too political. I've never forgotten what Tim said about it though, "You can't put a price on human lives." I didn't think it was political at all, since it went against Dr. Coleman's (rather strongly outspoken) political views and was a purely humanitarian statement. That was on the show right before the April 27, 2011 outbreak happened. And frankly, everybody was still reeling from the April 15 outbreak that year. Anyway, John has breathed new life into that podcast that I feel has been on the decline ever since J.B. Elliott died. James also talked about the elephant in the room (a discussion long overdue) about the terms Gulf of Mexico/Gulf of America. So any weather enthusiasts, please treat yourself to this one even if you're not a regular listener.
10:47 PM Note - Added Spanish translation of forecast because I was still awake, plus Mr. Gordon mentioned it on the podcast, like, "Learn sign language. Learn Spanish." It's nice to know we've got some good people left who care about communication on that level and don't let politics get in the way of it.
And by the way, Nashville is included in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for about the next hour.
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