Thursday, June 29, 2023

Severe T-Storm Warning


They are giving plenty of lead time on this cluster of storms and for good reason. They have a history of producing large hail and some wind damage to trees and power lines. 

6:03 PM - I notice they are trending back toward estimating the hail at quarter size. Still estimating winds up to 70 mph though, plenty enough to damage trees and power lines. And the hail size has fluctuated up and down as these storms have pushed south out of Tennessee today. So that could ramp back up. And sometimes around sundown, storms do that. So either way, please be careful, be in a good safe place, definitely don't be trying to drive through this kind of weather. 



6:06 - Storms moving into Nauvoo. 


And this report is worth passing along because these storms continue to do damage. They were damaging up in Tennessee, and they have sustained into Alabama.  



6:12 - The public reported the hail at half-dollar size in Double Springs. Guess that's better than golfball. Looks like they are dropping the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas further North in Alabama and up into Tennessee. We've just got these couple of storm clusters that are still severe in Northwest Alabama. 



6:15 - A new storm has formed and intensified South of the main storm there in Walker County, actually extends over into Fayette County - between Carbon Hill, Oakman, and Berry. This is within the warning polygon and certainly looks severe to me on radar. 



6:18 - And those two storms in Winston and Walker Counties are the only ones showing signs of being severe. The warnings for those storms do clip Fayette and Marion Counties as well. 



6:23 - And with the latest update to the warning, the National Weather Service in Birmingham is estimating the hail to be up to 1.5 inches in diameter, that's about the size of a ping pong ball. So like I said, the hail in these storms has been cycling up and down today. 



6:30 - All right, this is moving down into Southwestern Walker County and more into Fayette and Tuscaloosa Counties. The threats remain ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts. After posting this radar image above, going to leave this be unless weather radio goes off again (like it just did) and be working on the forecast. This is getting more into the area covered by bloggers or other forecasters centered around Birmingham. 

7:42 PM - If you've just stumbled on this post as the latest on the blog, see here for the latest forecast. I started writing it before this severe stuff got this far south and finished it after. 

515

WUUS54 KBMX 292253

SVRBMX

ALC057-093-127-133-292345-

/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0244.230629T2253Z-230629T2345Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

553 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023


The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Walker County in central Alabama...

  Southeastern Marion County in northwestern Alabama...

  Southern Winston County in northwestern Alabama...

  Northeastern Fayette County in west central Alabama...


* Until 645 PM CDT.


* At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poplar

  Springs, or 8 miles east of Lynn, moving south at 55 mph.


  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.


  SOURCE...Radar indicated.


  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage

           to roofs, siding, and trees.


* Locations impacted include...

  Jasper, Cordova, Carbon Hill, Lynn, Arley, Berry, Parrish, Oakman,

  Sipsey, Kansas, Nauvoo, Eldridge, Curry, Camp McDowell, Ashbank,

  Poplar Springs, Falls City, Smith Lake, Lynns Park and Coon Creek.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3399 8714 3397 8714 3396 8712 3391 8709

      3390 8710 3389 8708 3381 8702 3367 8738

      3371 8774 3402 8771 3402 8757 3412 8722

TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 349DEG 49KT 3407 8741


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH


$$


40/Sizemore

Severe T-Storm Warning



Plenty of lead time for Winston County, as it looks like that is where these storms are headed next. Winds may gust up to 70 miles per hour, and the hail could easily be up to the size of golfballs. These storms have a history of some damaging wind gusts and large hail since at least Southern Tennessee. 



5:31 PM - The cluster of supercells starting to move into Winston County now. In Lawrence and Winston Counties, golfball sized hail and wind gusts up to 60 or maybe even 70 mph are possible. These storms also have a lot of lightning. That's not what makes them severe - the hail and wind make them severe (and a potential threat to life and property). But lightning can be dangerous too. You want to be inside away from windows or anything electrical. I know that's common sense, but I'm reminding because these storms are severe and along with the hail/winds, have a lot of cloud to ground lightning. They need to be taken more seriously than an average summer storm. 

5:34 - Broadcast media reports ping-pong ball sized hail with these storms back in Rogersville. So these keep verifying with actual reports. 

5:37 - And it looks like outflow winds with a gust front ahead of storms took down some trees and power lines in Ardmore earlier as well. 



5:38 - Storms moving into Double Springs now. 



5:42 - And a new warning came out including Phil Campbell, a little farther to the West. This is a cluster of supercells that had plenty of fuel today in the heat and humidity. 



5:44 - So let's take the wide view. Two separate storms, supercell thunderstorms this evening. 



5:50 - People down in Walker County, places like Nauvoo or along the Northern edge of the county there near the county line, you will want to be preparing for these storms. A warning may be required to be extended to include parts of Walker County soon, we'll see. 

5:54 - Here is the warning for Walker County, also . . . nevermind, I'll post it separately.

939

WUUS54 KBMX 292218

SVRBMX

ALC133-292315-

/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0243.230629T2218Z-230629T2315Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

518 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023


The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Winston County in northwestern Alabama...


* Until 615 PM CDT.


* At 518 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Moulton,

  moving south at 20 mph.


  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.


  SOURCE...Radar indicated.


  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail

           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect

           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to

           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.


* Locations impacted include...

  Haleyville, Lynn, Arley, Double Springs, Addison, Houston

  Recreational Area, Nesmith, Brushy Lake, Helicon, Inmanfield,

  Ashridge, Sardis, Corinth Rec Area, Needmore, Moreland, Winston

  Free State Barn, Smith Lake, Houston, Natural Bridge and Posey

  Field Airport.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3430 8711 3413 8711 3400 8757 3400 8764

      3430 8763

TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 341DEG 18KT 3440 8735


THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH


$$


40/Sizemore

Very Hot and Humid This Weekend, More Seasonable Next Week

(Forecast)

Friday (High 98, Low 71): Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Very hot and humid. 

Saturday (High 96, Low 72): Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Hot and humid. 

Sunday (High 94, Low 73): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Hot and humid. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 91, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Independence Day (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Beach Forecast)

Friday (High 90, Low 80): Sunny.

Saturday (High 90, Low 79): Sunny.

Sunday (High 88, Low 80): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

Monday (High 87, Low 78): Partly cloudy and breezy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

Independence Day (High 87, Low 79): Partly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Alta 98, Baja 71): Parcialmente nublado con lluvias aisladas y posibles tormentas eléctricas. Muy caluroso y húmedo.

Sábado (Alta 96, Baja 72): Parcialmente nublado con lluvias aisladas y tormentas eléctricas posibles. Caliente y húmedo.

Domingo (máxima 94, mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias dispersas y tormentas eléctricas. Caliente y húmedo.

(Perspectiva extendida)

Lunes (Alta 91, Baja 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Día de la Independencia (Alta 89, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Alta 88, Baja 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Alta 89, Baja 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Territorio de las hojas de té)

Viernes (Alta 88, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Alta 89, Baja 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Alta 91, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Pronóstico de la playa)

Viernes (Alta 90, Baja 80): Soleado.

Sábado (Alta 90, Baja 79): Soleado.

Domingo (Alta 88, Baja 80): Mayormente soleado con una lluvia aislada o tormenta eléctrica posible.

Lunes (Alta 87, Baja 78): Parcialmente nublado y con brisa, con posibles lluvias dispersas y tormentas eléctricas.

Día de la Independencia (High 87, Low 79): Parcialmente nublado y con brisa, con lluvias dispersas y posibles tormentas eléctricas.

(Note) 

The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow. 

The Spanish thing is just an experiment that might be more useful than the experiments with 10-day outlooks. If you find a mistake in it, or if you find a mistake of another kind (like in the meteorology), feel free to send me an e-mail so that I can learn from the mistake. 

(Discussion)




It was a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with some pretty decent heat. Here in the late afternoon, at 4:48 PM, we've got some thunderstorms moving through parts of the area from a mesoscale convective system that dropped down from Tennessee and Kentucky. Some of these storms have become severe and produced damaging wind gusts and golfball-sized hail in Tennessee, up around Lawrenceburg. Severe thunderstorms are currently moving through areas like Rogersville, Lexington, Town Creek, and Moulton. So folks to the Southeast in Morgan and Cullman Counties want to monitor the progress of these storms and take precautions later if necessary. Winston County might want to keep an eye on this cluster of storms too just in case it were to move more South than Southeast. 


With the latest warning that has come out, we're back to the mention of golfball sized hail. For a while it was estimated to be down to quarter size. These storms have been some real hailers though, with the threat for damaging wind gusts being there but being secondary sometimes. 





These storms do also contain a lot of lightning, which is only to be expected with this kind of heat. It hasn't gotten as hot as forecast today though. The humidity has made it feel like it's about 100 degrees for a lot of us anyway, but the temperatures have not been all that bad compared to what they were expected to be. The High in Cullman was 90 after a morning Low of 66. Jasper did make it up to 95 degrees, after a Low of 66 there too. And Haleyville also had a High of 95 and Low of 66. Now that's still hot. And with the humidity factored in, we saw some Heat Indices of 100-105. But so far this miniature heat wave is underperforming. We are still under a ridge of high pressure and then have that strong High pressure center at 500 millibars over the Sabine Valley/Ark-LA-Tex. You can see as that system continues to push East it is moving a warm front through our region. 


And with this latest warning, it looks like we may be dealing with hail up to the size of baseballs. Please don't get caught out in these storms, whether outdoors or driving. This hail would be enough to break the windshield of a car. Especially if combined with strong winds up to 60 mph. 




The exact track of these storms can change, summer storms, and right now they are moving more South than Southeast. Everyone from Double Springs to Cullman up to even places like Falkville and Hartselle need to be prepared in case you have to take cover from these storms as they move along. 

It is 5:09 PM as I write this. This storm cluster is believed to be producing hail up to the size of baseballs and capable also of damaging wind gusts up to about 60 miles per hour. The best place to be is in a sturdy house, small room, lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows or anything electrical. But at minimum I'd get inside and stay away from windows or anything likely to conduct lightning. Might unplug things like a cell phone or laptop. And ahead of these storms, if you have time to safely do so, might put your car in the garage or parking deck. But your safety first, but if you can prevent hail damage to property, that is good too. I'll finish the forecast as time allows, but this weather is getting serious again. 

If we get a warning for Winston or Cullman County, I'll post that separately and postpone this forecast. 

All right, coming up on 6:30 now, and the storms are finishing moving through Walker and Fayette Counties. So until the next reissue of a warning, if we're going to have that for Walker, going to try to finish up this forecast. 

And here's the new warning . . . 




Which is not showing up on the easier graphics to insert here, but you can see the severe thunderstorms are moving into Fayette and Tuscaloosa counties. 

Now let's look at computer modelling as far as what to expect this weekend and into the 4th of July and beyond. 



Tomorrow is still expected to be our hottest day from this mini heat wave. But I don't think it's going to be as hot as earlier forecasts suggested. We expected to be in the upper 90's today and only made 90 for Cullman, 95 for Jasper and Haleyville. So I'm going to forecast a High of 98 degrees instead of 100 for tomorrow. Low should be about 72. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm only 20%. If somebody does get a rogue storm, it could be strong, but usually they don't produce golfball sized hail like we saw today. The hail is usually quarter-sized or smaller if it happens this time of year. This was from a mesoscale convective system. The models did pick up on that but had the timing for Wednesday or Wednesday night. So the basic idea was right after all, just a day too early. 



On Saturday again the chance of rain or a thunderstorm bringing relief from the heat/humidity is minimal. But we have less of a clearly defined "heat bubble", upper-level High as much as we are just under a ridge around here, pretty strong ridge. Should see a High of more like 96-97, Low still in lower 70's. 



Sunday looks similar as far as rain chances, but some earlier guidance was showing an increase, so may bump rain chance up to 30% here. The upper-level pattern starts to relax so that we can drop into the lower 90's again. And again a Low in the lower 70's.



Then for Monday, with the upper-level winds shifting back to the West/Southwest, a rain chance of 30% looks reasonable. High should be near 90, Low near 70.



Then by the 4th of July, a cold front will push into the region and probably stall out before it washes out. Looks like need to include a 40% rain chance here, but that's still scattered rain and thunderstorms. So when making your plans, if you are celebrating here locally instead of heading down to the beach, just make sure everybody has a place to get inside in case there is a passing shower or thunderstorm, and it should be fine. Not expecting any excessive heat like this weekend, in fact the High will probably dip into the upper 80's. 



Then for Wednesday, will trim the rain chance back to 30%. 


Because fronts this time of year tend to get hung up or dissipate over our region. 

Still expecting a High in the upper 80's, Low in the upper 60's.



Looking at model trends, will keep that 30% chance of rain in there for next Thursday. 

Beyond that, it's almost like reading tea leaves. But just for fun, I try that about once a week, since so many television stations do that now. It seems to go in and out of style, and I wouldn't doubt it's a promotional thing the TV stations do that the meteorologists have little or no say in, at least with some stations. Maybe in the summertime, there is some skill in forecasts at this long range. But even when I'm the one doing it, I feel obliged to tell you that beyond about a week in advance, forecasts can get pretty dubious in a hurry. But next Friday looks like need to increase the rain chance to 40%. Back to 30% for Saturday. Then for Sunday back to 20%. And temperatures will probably warm back to about 90 or so for High, 70 for Low, by Sunday. 


There is a surface trough producing disorganized showers and storms a few hundred miles South/Southeast of Bermuda. It is moving North slowly at about 5-10 miles per hour. And the upper-level winds are strong enough that it probably is not going to develop into anything, even over the next week. 


We do have a couple of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. 



Hurricane Adrian is producing swells along the Southwestern/Western coasts of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula, which makes for dangerous rip currents. It is expected to slowly weaken as it moves into cooler waters and drier air between now and Monday, and will probably dissipate over open water early next week. 



Much more concerning is Tropical Storm Beatriz. Expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow (Friday). This has prompted a Hurricane Warning for the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Friday and Saturday could be rough for some of those folks down that way. 

And in Southern Mexico, from Oaxaca back West to Jalisco, heavy rainfall is expected that could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, even in areas not affected directly by the Hurricane Warning. 



Around here, we could see an average of about an inch or two of rain over the next week, maybe an isolated higher amount closer to three inches, at least in Northeast Alabama up into Tennessee, where any leftovers from any more of those MCS's up North are more likely to produce any rain or thunderstorms in the coming days. 


Thanks for reading. Stay cool. 

Mesoscale Convective System to the North

 



The weather sure has been throwing some curves this summer, reminds me of 2012 or 2009. A mesoscale convective system is moving out of mainly Illinois, but also some storms have formed ahead of the main cluster in Kentucky and Tennessee, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for basically all of Middle Tennessee, including the counties that border Alabama. 

 


And you can see, there have been numerous reports of damaging winds up in the Ohio River Valley back up into the Midwest already today. 


We've already got a temperate of 95 in Muscle Shoals, 91 in Jasper, with dewpoints in the lower 70's. So the excessive heat is real, but for anybody who does get any of these storms that survive, those storms could pack a punch in the heat and humidity. 



And the Storm Prediction Center has extended a severe thunderstorm outlook, Level 2 out of 5, for the Tennessee Valley the rest of today into tonight. The main threat is damaging thunderstorm winds, although there is a low risk of some large hail in some storms as well. This is not all that unusual for summer, but it's a little beyond what was expected around here today. If we do see some rain and storms, obviously that may mitigate the excessive heat problem for some folks. Don't count on that either way though. This summer has had some really unusual patterns, even though it's far from unheard of to have MCS trying to move in or graze the area even when the heat and humidity do get extreme. 

So I noticed this going on and decided to post about it. 


2:11 PM - Okay, now the new Severe Thunderstorm Watch extends down to counties like Marshall, Dekalb, Morgan, Lawrence, and Franklin in Alabama. Of course it also includes Huntsville and Muscle Shoals in far Northern Alabama. It does not include Cullman, Winston, Walker, Marion, Blount, or Etowah Counties as of right now. But remember that a watch means severe thunderstorms are possible in and close to the watch area. And there are storms in Middle Tennessee showing signs of severe winds. 



2:46 - From the Weather Prediction Center about the heat. 




3:10 PM - The storms appear to be in a weakening phase. Some folks are getting some rain on a hot day though. 



3:17 - Now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for places like Lawrenceburg and Pulaski in Lawrence and Giles Counties in Southern Middle Tennessee. Storm may be producing wind gusts of 60 miles per hour and quarter sized hail. 



4:24 PM - The storms are moving into Northwest Alabama now and have a history of producing golfball sized hail in Tennessee. Also be aware they can produce damaging wind gusts. I saw a report of a large tree down, think it was from Lawrence County, TN, might have been blocking a roadway. So take these warnings seriously enough to at least stay inside, away from windows. 

One thing about it, the places getting large hail can kiss the excessive heat goodbye for a little while. Of course it cranks back up tomorrow, but the break from it is nice. 



4:36 - The hail signatures are not looking as bad, probably closer to quarter size now, but that's still severe criteria, and so are wind gusts up to 60 mph. 

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST: Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Most...