Thursday, June 20, 2024

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST:

Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid. 

Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid. 

Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 95, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 94, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 92, Low 72): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 91, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 87, Low 78): Sunny. Dangerous rip currents. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 77): Sunny. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 79): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. 

Next Week (Highs ~90, Lows ~80): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 93, Mínima 67): Soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

Sábado (Máxima 95, Mínima 69): Soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

Domingo (Máxima 96, Mínima 71): Mayormente soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 95, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Máxima 94, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 91, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 87, Mínima 78): Soleado. Peligrosas corrientes de resaca.

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 77): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 79): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica aislada.

Próxima Semana (Máximas ~90, Mínimas ~80): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

NOTES:

May 2024 was the warmest on record. And these record-level sea temperatures are a big reason our hurricane season is expected to be active this year.  

It is good to keep up with rip currents this time of year if you're going to the beach, so here is a handy reference on that

Next week will be lightning safety week. The basic rule of thumb is that if you're close enough to a storm to hear thunder, you need to get inside. 

And the fugitive who was recently roaming around in Cullman was apprehended and taken back into custody in Birmingham the other day. I try to follow up on these things when I notice them, sort of like Amber Alerts, you'd be surprised how many of them have "happy endings" where nobody got seriously hurt. And as far as I know, that was the case here, sounds like nobody got hurt. 

DISCUSSION:




Skies were partly to mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today. The High in Cullman was 90 after a morning Low of 70. (At least if you round to the nearest whole number. At some point I probably need to ask a meteorologist whether or not this is the correct approach. The format of the observations recently changed to show the exact temperatures, which for Cullman today topped out at 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit and bottomed out at 69.8 degrees. Which I rounded to 90 and 70 degrees.) Jasper saw a High of 93 and Low of 66. The High was 90, Low of 65 in Haleyville. 

Elsewhere around the region, Fort Payne had a High of 89 and Low of 64. Decatur saw a High of 92, Low of 66. Huntsville saw a High of 93, Low of 70. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 92, Low of 66. Tupelo saw a High of 92, Low of 69. The High was 90, Low of 72 in Memphis. And they saw more clouds today. And then Nashville had a High of 93 and a Low of 69. 

Rain has been very scarce around here lately. And you can see that heat bubble of high pressure has expanded again, as the models were showing days ago. 



That pattern will hold tomorrow. We'll see sunny skies, a High about 92-93, a Low about 66-67. 



Then Saturday again sunny skies, looks Like a High in more the 93-95 range, Low about 68-70 range. 




The ridge of high pressure should weaken some by Sunday, but we stay mostly sunny with a High near 95 and Low near 70. 



On Monday it looks like the pattern may allow for a little more seasonable moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. And we'll have a low-end 20% chance of isolated rain again. The High should be in the low to mid 90's and the Low in the lower 70's. 



Basically the same thing for Tuesday. Our weather in the summer doesn't get all that exciting most of the time. Today is the summer solstice, most of you probably already know. But it's already felt like July for a week or more now. 



Looks like a trough will bring us more rain chances next Wednesday. This is enough to bring the rain chance up to about 40%. High should be in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 



Then for Thursday it looks okay to scale the rain chance back to 30% and forecast a High near 90, Low near 70. 


In the tropics, first off, Tropical Storm Alberto dissipated into just a big mass of rain and gusty winds as it moved across Mexico. But these kinds of heavy rains can produce flooding issues and mudslides over the rough terrain of the country. Especially across the states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, flooding issues are a real concern and could pose a threat to life and property. This includes the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. Getting this information from the National Hurricane Center. 

Through Friday, swells affecting the Texas coast and Northeast Mexico will continue to produce dangerous rip currents and hazardous surfing conditions. 


We have another tropical wave coming up behind it. It should move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and then it may slowly become a tropical depression as it moves West/Northwest. 


If you look at the seven-day tropical outlook from the NHC, this system is likely to develop. So some of those same areas may be in for another round of heavy rains next week, depending on what this system does and where it moves inland. The track does look similar at this point. 

The broad low pressure North/Northeast of the Northern Bahamas does not have a well-defined center of circulation, aircraft found today, but it will approach the coast of Georgia or the Northeast coast of Florida over the next day or two. It has about a 50/50 shot of becoming a tropical depression. 

So the tropics are active early this year. Looks like those ideas of it being an active season were spot on. Usually it doesn't get active like this until July or August, or sometimes later. Not sure how soon we'll see an actual hurricane anywhere, but these weaker systems give us an idea of what kind of season it's likely to be. And we've known for months it was going to be an active one, or had a pretty good idea that it would be. 


And of course the really big rains are expected to be down in Mexico with the tropical activity and perhaps also in parts of Florida/Georgia, where another tropical system is trying to get organized. Around here, our rainfall totals will general stay under a half-inch or even a quarter of an inch for many of us. And you know how uneven and random the distribution of summer rain and thunderstorms can be, if you've lived here even one year. 


Thanks for reading. Even though you'd probably be better off borrowing a book from your local library and reading it organically than staying on your cell phone, tablet, or laptop reading my drivel. Probably even better for your eyesight as you get older. Nonetheless, if you find some value in said drivel, feel free to buy me a coffee via the link above or follow on Twitter/X/Elon Musk's New Playground. 

Decided not to bother with a 10-day outlook this time, but if you're concerned about next weekend (June 28-30), a safe bet would be a mix of sun and clouds, about a 20-30% chance of isolated rain or a thunderstorm each day, Highs in the low-to-mid-90's. Lows would be near 70 or in the lower 70's. If anybody comes up with a better guess than that, I might have to be the one to buy them a coffee. 

By the way, we do have a strawberry full moon tomorrow night. The background on it is interesting to read, but I was surprised to see ABC news offering detailed astrological advice. Sort of put me in a Harlan Ellison mood. I'm told a girl in my family is into a therian movement and currently identifies as a wolf. (Hey, when I was a kid, I wanted to be Oscar the Grouch so much that I couldn't understand why my parents wouldn't buy me a garbage can for Christmas. So who am I to judge . . . ?) So there is a lot of chaff to sort through these days. And I guess you just have to accept that a lot of life is learning to sort through the nonsense. Nonetheless, for my wolfish relative, I hope she enjoys tomorrow night and the beauty of a full moon. And you don't have to be a therian to do that. (Maybe it helps.) Or since I've always liked wolves, and can get a little crazy on a full moon, maybe I'm a therian closet case and don't know it yet. (Isn't it therian pride month anyway? No, wait, just pride month for homosexuals and bisexuals . . . and maybe cross-dressers . . . boring. Although some disturbing trends in culture remind me why people are proud of being able to actually live.) If I become a werewolf before Halloween though, somebody come put me in a straitjacket, please. Because I have this hunch I'd be a really mean one. Nothing like Michael Landon in that Highway to Heaven episode where it's all a gag brought on by a guy eating subway sandwiches before taking a nap. But seriously, don't go clawing anybody up (that's my cats' job), but I wish you a pleasant strawberry moon. Especially if you can enjoy it with strawberry wine. Or even something less intoxicating but more delicious like strawberry cheesecake . . . or best of all, strawberries from the garden patch. 

Strawberry fields forever . . . I'm afraid of Americans . . . I'm afraid of the world . . . I'm afraid I can't help it . . . hungry like the wolf . . . I'm outta' here. 

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

High Surf Advisory (Mobile)

 Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Mobile AL

1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-200200-

/O.EXT.KMOB.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-240622T0900Z/

/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-240621T0000Z/

Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-

Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-

1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY

NIGHT...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY...


* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5

  to 7 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk,

  dangerous rip currents.


* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal

  Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and

  Okaloosa Coastal Counties.


* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday

  night. For the High Surf Advisory, until 7 PM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and

  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best

  swimmers away from shore into deeper water.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to

dangerous surf conditions.


&&


$$


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Mobile AL

948 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ650-655-670-675-192300-

/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-240620T1800Z/

Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-

Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola

FL out 20 NM-

Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-

Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from

20 to 60 NM-

948 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT

THURSDAY...


* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas

  7 to 10 ft.


* WHERE...Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out

  20 NM, Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to

  Pensacola FL out 20 NM, Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula

  MS from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Okaloosa Walton County

  Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM.


* WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller

vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.


&&


$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Mobile AL

948 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ631-632-192300-

/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-240620T0000Z/

Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-

948 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS

EVENING...


* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves

  1 to 3 ft.


* WHERE...Southern Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound.


* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.


* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller

vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.


&&


$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL

252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ730-750-765-200230-

/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-240621T1200Z/

Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee

River FL out to 20 Nm-

Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line

FL out 20 NM-

Coastal waters from  Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-

252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 /152 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/

FRIDAY...


* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas

  5 to 8 ft.


* WHERE...Nearshore Gulf waters from the Ochlockonee River to

  the Suwannee River out 20 nautical miles, and Coastal waters

  from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM.


* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday.


* IMPACTS...A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20

  to 33 knots, or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to

  produce hazardous conditions for small craft. These hazardous

  conditions may result in poor vessel handling and steering

  response, broaching, overturned dinghies and kayaks, slips and

  falls on slippery decks, rub damage along docks and seawalls,

  and dragging anchors.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller

vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.


&&


$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL

252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ752-755-770-772-775-200230-

/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-240621T1200Z/

Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-

Coastal Waters From  Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to

20 Nm-

Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from

20 to 60 NM-

Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-

Waters from  Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-

252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 /152 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/

FRIDAY...


* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6

  to 8 ft.


* WHERE...Offshore Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County

  line to the Ochlockonee River from 20 to 60 nautical miles

  out, Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out

  20 NM, and Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to

  Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm.


* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday.


* IMPACTS...A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20

  to 33 knots, or seas of 7 feet or greater, are expected to

  produce hazardous conditions for small craft. These hazardous

  conditions may result in poor vessel handling and steering

  response, broaching, overturned dinghies and kayaks, slips and

  falls on slippery decks, rub damage along docks and seawalls,

  and dragging anchors.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller

vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.


&&


$$


Godsey

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

409 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-577-191715-

/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-240620T1500Z/

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-

Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-

Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River

LA out 20 nm-

Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River

to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-

Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the

Mississippi River out 20 nm-

Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out

20 NM-

Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island

Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-

409 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT

THURSDAY...


* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7

  to 10 ft.


* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.


* WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller

vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.


&&


$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

409 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


GMZ570-572-575-191715-

/O.CON.KLIX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240620T0600Z/

/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0050.240620T0600Z-240620T1500Z/

Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya

River LA from 20 to 60 NM-

Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to

Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-

Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the

Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-

409 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT

THURSDAY...


* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts

  up to 40 kt and seas 10 to 13 ft. For the Small Craft

  Advisory, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and

  seas 8 to 11 ft expected.


* WHERE...Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower

  Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from

  Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon

  Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM and Coastal Waters from Stake

  Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20

  to 60 nm.


* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 AM CDT Thursday. For the

  Small Craft Advisory, from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday.


* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could

  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.

Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the

vessel for severe conditions.


&&


$$

Tropical Storm Alberto




 369 

WTNT31 KNHC 191746

TCPAT1


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024

100 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


...ALBERTO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG

THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...



SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 95.1W

ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO

ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the

Rio Grande

* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio

Grande to Tecolutla.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 

office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 

United States, please monitor products issued by your national 

meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was

located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 95.1 West. Alberto is

moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A westward motion with

an increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday.  On the

forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of

northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before

the center of Alberto reaches land.  Rapid weakening is expected

once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate

over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.


Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds

extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.


RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall

totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.

Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher

terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and

Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and

urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides

are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast

Mexico.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service

Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and

the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded

by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft

Galveston Bay...2-4 ft

Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft

Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.


For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.


Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern

Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes

landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large

and destructive waves.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area today through early Thursday.


TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight

across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.


SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas

and northeastern Mexico through Friday.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Berg



000

WTNT41 KNHC 191448

TCDAT1


Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024

1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft

and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate

that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation.

In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as

within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center.

This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique.  The

system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone

and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto.

Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain

about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb

according to the dropsonde data.  Some of the dropsonde and oil

rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are

located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment

appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix

efficiently down to the surface.  Still, this could mean that gusty

winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves

inland through the day.


Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center

has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or

270/8 kt.  This westward motion is expected to continue for the

next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.

builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of

Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time

Thursday morning.


Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment

of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30

degrees Celsius.  However, the broad circulation will still likely

limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC

forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the

storm reaches land.  There is some possibility of slight

strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B

models.  After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday.

A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for

continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated

over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then.


Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large 

area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and 

tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.  Importantly,

the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the

chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because

of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the

northern side of the circulation.



Key Messages:


1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of

this system.  Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, 

and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the 

coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.


2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact 

large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico 

and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable 

flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. 

Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas 

of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, 

and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad 

Victoria.


3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas

Coast through Thursday.


4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of

the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the

coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  19/1500Z 22.2N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  20/0000Z 22.2N  96.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  20/1200Z 22.3N  98.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 36H  21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Berg


217 

WTNT51 KNHC 191449

TDSAT1



Tormenta Tropical Alberto Discusión Número 8

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL012024

1000 AM CDT miércoles 19 de junio de 2024


Los datos de Dropsonde de un avión de reconocimiento de la Reserva

de la Fuerza Aérea y la boya 42055 de NOAA en el suroeste del Golfo

de México indican que el sistema ha desarrollado un centro de

circulación bien definido. Además, se ha formado una convección

profunda cerca del centro, así como dentro de una banda que se

extiende 200 n mi al sureste del centro.Esta convección es

classificable a través de la técnica Dvorak. El sistema cumple los

requisitos necesarios de ser un ciclón tropical y, por lo tanto,

está siendo designado como Tormenta Tropical Alberto. Las

observaciones de aeronaves y de superficie sugieren que los vientos

máximos permanecen alrededor de 35 kt, pero la presión central ha

caído a aproximadamente 995 mb según los datos de la sonda. Algunos

de los datos de dropsonde y de plataformas petroleras en el noroeste

del Golfo indican que vientos más fuertes se localizan no demasiado

lejos por encima de la superficie del océano, pero el ambiente

parece demasiado estable para vientos sostenidos de esa magnitud

para mezclarse eficientemente hasta la superficie. Aún así, esto

podría significar que las ráfagas de vientos afectan gran parte del

sur de Texas a medida que la actividad convectiva se mueve tierra

adentro durante el día.


Alberto puede haber trotado un poco al sur ahora que un centro más

definido se ha vuelto aparente, pero el movimiento general permanece

hacia el oeste, o 270/8 kt. Se espera que este movimiento hacia el

oeste continúe para el próximo día o dos mientras que las crestas de

nivel medio sobre el este de los Estados Unidos se construyen hacia

el oeste, y los modelos de trayectoria están de acuerdo en que el

centro de Alberto debe estar tierra adentro sobre el noreste de

México para este jueves por la mañana.


Alberto tiene una probabilidad de fortalecerse dentro de un ambiente

favorable de baja cizalladura vertical y temperaturas cálidas de la

superficie del mar de aproximadamente 30 grados Celsius. Sin

embargo, la amplia circulación todavía probablemente limitará la

cantidad de fortalecimiento que puede ocurrir, y el pronóstico del

NHC continúa mostrando una intensidad máxima de 40 kt antes de que

la tormenta alcance tierra. Hay alguna posibilidad de ligero

fortalecimiento más allá de ese nivel, como lo sugieren los modelos

GFS y HAFS-B. Después de tocar tierra, se pronostica un rápido

debilitamiento el jueves. Un punto de pronóstico de 36 horas como un

remanente bajo se muestra principalmente para la continuidad, pero

con toda probabilidad el sistema se habrá disipado sobre el terreno

montañoso de México para entonces.


Independientemente de la trayectoria exacta de Alberto, este sistema

tendrá una gran área de fuertes lluvias, inundaciones costeras

moderadas y vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical bien al norte

del centro. Es importante destacar que las probabilidades de

velocidad del viento oficiales son probables subestimando las

probabilidades de vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical a lo largo

de la costa de Texas debido a la zona inusualmente grande y

asimétrica de fuertes vientos en el lado norte de la circulación.



Mensajes Clave:


1. Se recuerda a los usuarios que no se enfoquen en la trayectoria

pronosticada exacta de este sistema. Alberto es muy grande con

lluvia, inundaciones costeras y impactos de viento que probablemente

ocurrirán lejos del centro a lo largo de las costas de Texas y el

noreste de México.


2. Las fuertes lluvias associadas con la Tormenta Tropical Alberto

afectarán grandes regiones de América Central, al norte a través del

noreste de México y en el sur de Texas.Esta lluvia probablemente

producirá considerables inundaciones repentinas y urbanas junto con

inundaciones nuevas y renovadas del río. Son probables inundaciones

y deslizamientos de tierra que amenazan la vida en y cerca de áreas

de terreno más alto a través de los estados mexicanos de Coahuila,

Nuevo Leon, y Tamaulipas, incluyendo las ciudades de Monterrey y

Ciudad Victoria.


3. Es probable que se produzcan inundaciones costeras moderadas a lo

largo de gran parte de la Costa de Texas hasta el jueves.


4. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical hoy a lo largo de

porciones de la costa de Texas al sur de San Luis Pass y a lo largo

de porciones de la costa del noreste de México dentro del área de

Aviso de Tormenta Tropical.



POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS


INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/00Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT

45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/00Z

22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO 48H

21/1200Z...DISIPADO


$$

Pronosticador Berg


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


493 

WTCA41 KNHC 191747

TASAT1



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Alberto Advertencia Intermedia Número 8A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL012024

100 PM CDT miércoles 19 de junio de 2024


...ALBERTO MOVIÉNDOSE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL GOLFO OESTE DE

MÉXICO...

...PRONÓSTICO DE FUERTES LLUVIAS, INUNDACIONES COSTERAS Y VIENTOS

RÁFAGAS A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MÉXICO

HASTA EL JUEVES...



RESUMEN DE 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...22.2N 95.1W

ALREDEDOR 180 MI...290 KM E DE TAMPICO MÉXICO

ALREDEDOR 295 MI...475 KM SSE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 270 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...995 MB...29.39 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:


Ninguno.


RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* la costa de Texas desde San Luis Pass hacia el sur hasta la boca

del Río Grande

* la costa noreste de México al sur de la boca del Río Grande a

Tecolutla.


Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso.


Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados

Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la

tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical

Alberto se localizó cerca de la latitud 22.2 Norte, longitud 95.1

Oeste. Alberto se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 9 mph (15

km/h). Se espera un movimiento hacia el oeste con un aumento en la

velocidad de avance hasta el jueves. En la trayectoria del

pronóstico, el centro de Alberto alcanzará la costa del noreste de

México temprano el jueves por la mañana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica algún ligero fortalecimiento hoy

o esta noche antes de que el centro de Alberto alcance tierra. Se

espera un rápido debilitamiento una vez que el centro se mueva

tierra adentro, y Alberto es probable que se disipe sobre México el

jueves o el jueves por la noche.


Alberto es una gran tormenta tropical, con vientos con fuerza de

tormenta tropical que se extienden hacia fuera hasta 415 millas (665

km) al norte del centro.


La presión central mínima estimada es de 995 mb (29.39 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para Alberto se pueden encontrar en el Ciclón

Tropical

Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT1 y el encabezado de

la OMM WTNT41 KNHC.


LLUVIA: Se espera que la Tormenta Tropical Alberto produzca totales

de lluvia de 5 a 10 pulgadas a través del noreste de México en el

sur de Texas. Son posibles totales máximos alrededor de 20 pulgadas

a través del terreno más alto de los estados mexicanos de Coahuila,

Nuevo Leon, y Tamaulipas.Esta lluvia probablemente producirá

considerables inundaciones repentinas y urbanas junto con

inundaciones nuevas y renovadas del río. También son posibles

deslizamientos de tierra en áreas de terreno más alto a través del

noreste de México.


Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia e

inundaciones repentinas associadas con Alberto, por favor vea el

Gráfico de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de

Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf y el gráfico de Riesgo de

Inundaciones Repentinas en hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml? ero


MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica

peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca

de la costa sean inundadas por aguas ascendentes que se mueven

tierra adentro desde la costa. El agua podría alcanzar las

siguientes alturas por encima del suelo en algún lugar en las áreas

indicadas si la marejada máxima ocurre en el momento de la marea

alta...


Sargent, TX a Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 pies Galveston Bay...2-4 pies

Boca del Río Grande, TX a Sargent, TX...1-3 pies Sabine Pass, TX a

Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 pies Sargent


La agua más profunda ocurrirá a lo largo de la costa inmediata cerca

y al norte de la ubicación de la llegada a tierra, donde la marejada

estará acompañada por olas grandes y peligrosas. Las inundaciones

relacionadas con las marejadas dependen del momento relativo de la

marejada y el ciclo de mareas, y pueden variar enormemente a

distancias cortas. Para información específica en su área, por favor

vea los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico del Servicio

Nacional de Meteorología local.


Para una representación completa de áreas en riesgo de inundación de

marejada ciclónica, por favor vea el Gráfico de Oleada Pico del

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.


Marejada ciclónica elevará los niveles de agua hasta 1 a 3 pies por

encima de los niveles de marea normales a lo largo de la costa

inmediata del noreste de México en áreas de vientos terrestres al

norte de donde el centro toca tierra. Cerca de la costa, la marejada

estará acompañada por olas grandes y destructivas.


VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área

bajo aviso hoy hasta el jueves temprano.


TORNADOS: Un par de tornados son posibles hoy y esta noche a través

de partes de Deep South Texas y el sureste de Texas.


OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por Alberto afectarán la costa de Texas

y el noreste de México hasta el viernes.Estas marejadas son

propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas que

amenazan la vida. Por favor, consulte los productos de su oficina

meteorológica local.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 PM CDT.


$$

Pronosticador Berg


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Monday, June 17, 2024

Staying Mostly Sunny with Seasonable Temperatures, Watching Tropics

(Forecast)

Tuesday (High 88, Low 71): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Juneteenth (High 87, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 90, Low 69): Mostly sunny. 

(Extended Outlook)

Friday (High 92, Low 70): Sunny.

Saturday (High 94, Low 71): Sunny. 

Sunday (High 93, Low 72): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Beach)

Tuesday (High 87, Low 78): Mostly cloudy and windy with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. High Surf Advisory. 

Wednesday (High 88, Low 78): Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 50% chance of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High Surf Advisory.

Thursday (High 88, Low 78): Partly cloudy and breezy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High Surf Advisory. 

Friday through Monday (Highs ~87-90, Lows ~77-80): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

(Pronóstico)

Martes (Máxima 88, Mínima 71): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Juneteenth (Máxima 87, Mínima 70): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 94, Mínima 71): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Lunes (Máxima 92, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Playa)

Martes (Máxima 87, Mínima 78): Mayormente nublado y ventoso con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas. Aviso de oleaje alto.

Miércoles (Máximo 88, Mínima 78): Mayormente nublado y ventoso con un 50% de probabilidad de numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas. Aviso de oleaje alto.

Jueves (Máximo 88, Mínimo 78): Parcialmente nublado y ventoso con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas. Aviso de oleaje alto.

De Viernes a Lunes (Máximas ~87-90, Mínimas ~77-80): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

It was a mostly sunny day in Cullman with a High of 88 and Low of 75, definitely another muggy one. 

The last forecast I posted was some of my sloppiest work ever, and I'm trying to correct it here. 




Our main weathermaker remains a high pressure system over the region. We are getting enough Gulf moisture for some showers and thunderstorms, mainly in Mississippi this evening, but some making it into Southern Middle Tennessee. 


Mainly some heavier rain was moving through Wayne and Hardin Counties. 

Just glancing around the country, notice they are having a heat wave in New England. And we aren't having it quite as bad, even though this weekend was kind of rough that way. 





Doesn't look like our pattern is changing much over the next two or three days. The big story will be if that tropical does form and how much it affects parts of Eastern Mexico and/or Texas. 

Around here tomorrow we'll have partly to mostly sunny skies and a High near 87-88, Low near 70 or so. 

Similar weather for Wednesday, Juneteenth, High in about 86-88 range, Low near 70. 

Then starting on Thursday, that high pressure ridge starts to expand again and bring us even drier air. Should see a High getting back to about 90, Low in upper 60's, mostly sunny skies. 



Friday and Saturday look sunny and dry for most of us. You can have an isolated shower or thunderstorm basically any summer day around here. But overall we are staying dry in this pattern. Highs near 90 or so, Lows near 70. 

Well actually after a second look, I think we may see mid-90's Saturday. 



And we may have a tropical disturbance from the East for Sunday and next Monday. Only enough evidence of this to introduce the basic 20% chance of isolated rain again. Highs in lower 90's, Lows in lower 70's. 



Eyes are on the tropics. The system in the SW Gulf of Mexico probably will become at least a tropical depression, maybe Tropical Storm Alberto, within the next couple days. The one in the Atlantic may bring us some rain by about Sunday but is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone. 



Here's a good look at the one moving toward the Eastern Mexican coast, could end up affecting the Southeast coast of Texas as well. Tropical Storm Watches are up in advance of it as it develops. 


It is likely to bring some gusty winds and heavy rains down that way, probably some places will have flooding issues. And with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, sometimes that can be a real problem, more than it is when we have flooding issues in Alabama. 

Up this way, we'll probably see a tenth of an inch of rain or less over the next seven days. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Developing in SW Gulf of Mexico



 444 

WTNT41 KNHC 172054

TCDAT1


Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024

400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024


Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of 

the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a 

central pressure near 1001 mb.  The system currently does not have 

the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection 

is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 

200-250 n mi northeast of the center.  The various global models 

forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the 

western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is 

required at this time.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on 

Potential Tropical Cyclone One.


The initial motion is 345/6.  This general motion should continue 

for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic 

motion due to center reformation.  After that, the cyclone is 

expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side 

of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast.  This 

should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h.  

While there are differences in details due to the disorganized 

nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on 

this general scenario.


The global models suggest that some deepening of the central 

pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the 

system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone.  Based on 

that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening.  

There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the 

large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a 

tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this 

possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in 

about 36 h.  However, there is a chance the system will never 

become a tropical cyclone.


Key Messages: 

1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of 

this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal 

flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center 

along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.


2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will 

impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico 

and southeastern Texas.   This rainfall will likely produce 

considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed 

river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher 

terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.


3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas 

Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 


4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over 

portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port 

O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  17/2100Z 20.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  18/0600Z 21.1N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 24H  18/1800Z 22.2N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 36H  19/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 48H  19/1800Z 23.4N  96.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 60H  20/0600Z 23.8N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 72H  20/1800Z 24.0N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 96H  21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Beven

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Mainly Staying Hot and Humid, Low Rain Chances

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 95, Low 70): Mostly sunny, hot and humid. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly in the evening. 

Monday (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 93, Low 73): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 92, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday (High 92, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 91, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 89, Low 77): Showers and thunderstorms likely. 

Monday (High 87, Low 75): Showers and thunderstorms likely. 

Tuesday (High 89, Low 76): Showers likely and breezy.

Wednesday through Saturday (High ~90, Low ~75): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 95, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado, caluroso y húmedo. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos o tormentas aisladas, principalmente por la tarde/noche.

Lunes (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 93, Mínima 73): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 91, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 89, Mínima 77): Lluvias y tormentas eléctricas probables.

Lunes (Máxima 87, Mínima 75): Lluvias y tormentas eléctricas probables.

Martes (Máxima 89, Mínima 76): Lluvias probables y con brisa.

De Miércoles a Sábado (Máxima ~90, Mínima ~75): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

NOTES:

This May was the warmest on record worldwide. That's one reason this hurricane season is expected to be unusually active. 


And Cullman Police/U.S. Marshals have been looking for a fugitive who was recently reported to have been in the area. While not directly related to weather, that could still be a public safety concern. 

DISCUSSION:

It has been a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with only a few fair-weather clouds and periods of haze. The High in Cullman was 93, with a morning Low of 66. We did also have some fog this morning in the pre-dawn hours. Jasper saw a High of 97 and Low of 68. The High was 94 in Haleyville after a morning Low of 67. Huntsville saw a High of 94, Low of 72. Nashville had a High of 95, Low of 74. 


The radar a little after 5 PM is a reminder that no summer day is really immune from a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain at the moment, the only really organized thunderstorm, is located down in Northern Tuscaloosa County. 





You have to go down to South Florida to find any really significant rain around the region though. Summer has come in with a vengeance, even though we're still five days away from the Solstice (this coming Thursday). A ridge of high pressure dominates our weather for the most part, though we do also have a weak frontal boundary stalled across the AL/TN state line and stretching through the mountains of Northeast Alabama. 



The ridge of high pressure and heat will continue to be the main story tomorrow. We'll see a High near 95, Low near 70, mainly just a hot and muggy day, mostly sunny skies, will include a minimal 20% chance for isolated rain based on seeing some Gulf moisture and how the radar looked today. But if you get any relief from the heat tomorrow, you're lucky. Since we're not used to the heat yet this summer, I'd be careful staying out in it too long, if you're getting something done outside. After a few weeks of temperatures around 90 or above, I guess we'll be used to it again. 



The ridge relaxes a little on Monday, but I still think the models are jumping the gun with how much to lower temperatures, showing more like 90/70. Instead I'm going with more like a High near 93, Low in about 71-73 range, keeping a 20% chance of rain in there. 



Let me amend that a little as I look toward Tuesday and start to see the overall model pattern better. Let's have a 30% chance of rain for Monday and bring it back to 20% for Tuesday. Still think Monday's High should be in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 

And for Tuesday, looks like similar temperatures, might adjust a degree or two as the rain chances are slightly lower with less moisture showing up inland. 



The pattern doesn't change all that much on Wednesday, will keep a 20% chance of rain and High in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 



By Thursday, the ridge builds back over the region strongly enough that we might can take out even the 20% chance of rain. Skies should be mostly sunny, with again, Highs in the lower 90's. Lows should be near 70. 



A weak low pressure system from the East may bring us more rain chances Friday. The ECMWF shows this same feature slower (more on Saturday) and further South. Since the model guidance is so unclear, and it's summer around here, I will I'll scrap the idea of taking out rain chances for Thursday, keep the 20% chance in, and also keep that for Friday here, might increase to 30% in case that Low does take a path more like the GFS suggests here, similar timing. High should be near 90 or so, Low near 70. 



And will keep the 30% chance of rain for next Saturday, even though the ECMWF balances out what you see from the standard GFS above. The GFS is too wet, the ECMWF is too dry, IMHO. Sometimes in summer around here it's tempting to just throw out all the model guidance and default to climatology and past personal experience, just looking at what the weather's actually doing right now. But they do provide some hints as to what it's going to do. Even when they don't get it right. Expecting a High in upper 80's or about 90 Saturday, Low of 70 or so. 


A tropical depression may form in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this coming week. And even if only a broad tropical Low forms, several days of heavy rain are expected over parts of Southern Mexico and Central America. Some of the latest model guidance shows this affecting Southern Texas. I think more of the tropical models still keep it moving into Southern Mexico. And those are usually more reliable for tropical systems. If a tropical depression forms, it could lead to flooding issues, which can be a threat to life and property more in the terrain of Mexico than when we have flooding up here in Alabama. So if you know anybody down that way, might give them a heads up about that. 


Average rainfall totals for this forecast period will only be up to a tenth or a quarter of an inch. Any rain we get is going to be hit-or-miss, pretty isolated, with most of us just staying hot and humid most of the time. Summer has arrived. 

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST: Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Most...