Wednesday, February 28, 2024

A Cold Snap For Now, Then Warming Up Again with Unsettled Pattern

FORECAST:

Tonight (Low 29): Mostly cloudy. Cold and breezy.

Tomorrow (High 53): Partly sunny. Cold and breezy.

Friday (High 52, Low 40): Showers likely. Staying cold and breezy.

Saturday (High 65, Low 48): Partly cloudy. An isolated shower is still possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 72, Low 51): Partly cloudy. 

Monday (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 69, Low 57): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 70, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Quick Forecast Update

So we had a lot of clouds around today and windy conditions. We are under a Wind Advisory. Which basically means things could blow off your porch. 

We actually had some showers today, especially this morning, but mainly variable levels of cloudiness and strong wind gusts. The High in Cullman was 72 with a morning Low of 59. 

The reason I'm posting another update is that I didn't feel the formal forecast format worked too well that I posted this morning. The timing of the front keeps looking quicker tomorrow too. So here, not going to go into a lot of technical details, but going to give you a less formal, plain-language version of what to expect. We're not even going to worry about the severe weather threat going on up in the Ohio Valley, because they have their own meteorologists up that way or just guys like me who pass along weather information without having a degree. 

Tonight is going to be cloudy and windy, a Low in the lower 60's, probably not much in the way of even light rain beyond what we've had so far today. 

Tomorrow is looking like just some rain in the morning, and the high wind gusts continuing, the air looking so stable that we're really not even worried about regular thunderstorms so much anymore, just rain, wind, and then . . . we'll probably make it up to the mid/upper 60's still, but it will be in the morning. 

It is now looking like our temperature shift will come mid-to-late morning. So this is not a day it makes sense to post a High/Low and then maybe put a note trying to explain it. The temperature is likely to fall to the 40's before we even get to the Noon hour. And it will hover there as the rain slowly tapers off in the afternoon. 

By daybreak on Thursday, we should be back down around 30 degrees. Will still have a North/Northeast breeze making it feel even colder. During the day Thursday, we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies, staying breezy, but warming to about 53-54 degrees for the afternoon High. 

Then the rain comes back Friday, showers are likely, just a cold rain, High in about the mid-50's and the morning's Low back up around 40. 

Then Saturday we should make it up to the upper 60's with a lot of clouds hanging around but a mix of sunshine as well. Should start the day in the upper 40's. The chance of any one spot getting a shower on Saturday is only about 3 out of 10, or 30%. So if you have weekend plans outside, I would not cancel them, just have a way to get out of the rain if you need to. 

Basically the same for Sunday as far as rain chances except they are even lower, 20%, which is more like a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. So these weekend rain chances after Friday are only about what you'd see on a typical summer day. So yes, there are rain chances, but overall no big deal, pretty comfortable temperatures too, should start Sunday in the lower 50's and warm to about 70 degrees in the afternoon. 

Then Monday and Monday night, we do have another front coming at us. Based on current trends, the threat for any stronger storms is looking very low. But rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday into Monday night. The High should be in the lower 70's, Low in mid-50's, maybe upper-50's if it gets a little more muggy. 

And then the best bet for Tuesday, given that the computer models are wishy-washy on the timing, as is often the case a week in advance, is that rain is still likely, maybe some thunderstorms still in the mix, the High back down in about the mid-60's, the overnight Low between Monday and Tuesday somewhere in the 50's. 

So there ya' go. Tomorrow looks cold and rainy and windy, if you just wanna' keep it simple. The cold may arrive as early as mid-morning, where previously, I was thinking it would get here in the afternoon. This front is moving fast. Might be good to backtrack and see which computer model was most consistent in showing this setup with the front just racing through here instead of the stormier looks that turned out not to verify at all. 

Active Weather Pattern

FORECAST:

Today (High 75): Isolated showers possible, mainly this morning. Cloudy, warm, and windy. 

Wednesday (High 69, Low 61): Rainy and windy. Temperatures dropping rapidly behind the cold front.

Thursday (High 53, Low 30): Partly to mostly cloudy and turning cold again. Still somewhat breezy, especially in the morning.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 56, Low 40): Showers likely.

Saturday (High 67, Low 49): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 72, Low 55): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Monday (High 70, Low 60): Rain and thunderstorms likely. 

Wind Advisory


 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

221 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-272200-

/O.NEW.KHUN.WI.Y.0005.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-

Including the cities of Boaz, Albertville, Lynchburg, Florence,

Muscle Shoals, Fort Payne, Estill Springs, Moulton, Fayetteville,

Decherd, Rainsville, Guntersville, Russellville, Red Bay, Arab,

Decatur, Sewanee, Sheffield, Huntsville, Tuscumbia, Cullman,

Cowan, Town Creek, Scottsboro, Athens, and Winchester

221 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest

  Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$


HC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Morristown TN

356 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024


TNZ012-013-035-036-081-082-098-272100-

/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Scott TN-Campbell-Morgan-Anderson-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Marion-

Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida,

Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle,

La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville,

Royal Blue, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Clinton, Cagle,

Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine,

Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, South Pittsburg,

Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell,

Powells Crossroads, and Monteagle

356 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024 /256 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS

AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/

  Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Nashville TN

238 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-272100-

/O.CON.KOHX.WI.Y.0003.240227T1800Z-240228T1200Z/

Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-

Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-

Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-

Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-

Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-

Including the cities of Murfreesboro, Linden, Smithville,

Altamont, Jamestown, Springfield, Goodlettsville, Centerville,

Cookeville, Tullahoma, La Vergne, Gallatin, Byrdstown,

Lobelville, Celina, Livingston, Allardt, Sparta, Tennessee Ridge,

New Johnsonville, Nashville, Smyrna, Hartsville, Shelbyville,

Ashland City, Gainesboro, South Carthage, Dover, Carthage,

Gordonsville, McMinnville, Waverly, McEwen, Hendersonville,

Dickson, Manchester, Pulaski, Lafayette, Lebanon, Columbia,

Brentwood, Spencer, Clarksville, Hohenwald, Kingston Springs,

Lawrenceburg, Woodbury, Erin, Waynesboro, Clifton, Franklin,

Lewisburg, Coalmont, Mount Juliet, and Crossville

238 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...A portion of Middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


&&


$$


27

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>005-007-

008-010>012-020-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-272200-

/O.EXT.KMEG.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1200Z/

Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-

St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-

Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-

Tallahatchie-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-

Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Chester-

Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-

Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro,

Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City,

Marianna, Helena-West Helena, Kennett, Caruthersville, Southaven,

Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica,

Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Charleston,

Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg,

Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington,

Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons,

Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis,

Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi,

  Southeast Missouri and West Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


MSZ006-009-013>017-021>024-272200-

/O.EXB.KMEG.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1200Z/

Tishomingo-Prentiss-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-

Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-

Including the cities of Iuka, Booneville, Oxford, New Albany,

Pontotoc, Tupelo, Fulton, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Bruce,

Calhoun City, Houston, Okolona, Amory, and Aberdeen

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Jackson MS

159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


LAZ024-026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>054-059-271600-

/O.EXB.KJAN.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1500Z/

Catahoula-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-

Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-

Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-

Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-

Including the cities of Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Vidalia,

Ferriday, West Ferriday, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,

Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus,

Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,

Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Yazoo City,

Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River,

De Kalb, Scooba, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest,

Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson,

Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, and Fayette

159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of northeast Louisiana and central

  Mississippi.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

125 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ALZ011>015-017>041-043-272100-

/O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0005.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-

Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-

Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-

Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Elmore-

Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,

Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre,

Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana,

Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga,

Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville,

Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City,

Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma,

Prattville, Wetumpka, and Tallassee

125 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.


* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

Monday, February 26, 2024

Quick Forecast Update

Only going to do a bullets-point forecast this evening. Yesterday a member of my extended family suffered a stroke and is recuperating from a very frightening couple of days. The situation has knocked the wind out of me. This is not a paying gig, so we're only doing bullet points this time. 

It was mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today with a good southerly breeze. Even this morning, winds were gusting up to 20 miles per hour or more. The High in Cullman was 73 after a morning Low of 50. Jasper got up to 75 degrees after a morning Low of 39. Haleyville had a High of 73 and Low of 49. 




So things are quiet for now overall. Tomorrow we'll get up to about 75 degrees with clouds and winds on the increase. 



A cold front will push through here on Wednesday, and we'll have rain, gusty winds, and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, with a High near 70, Low near 60. 


The Storm Prediction Center has kept us in an outlook for only general thunderstorms, since the air looks like it will be way too stable for severe thunderstorms, and as discussed even last week on this blog, things only looked favorable for a low-end threat to begin with, synoptic setup just looked too messy.

Thursday looks like a mix of sun and clouds, brief break from the rain, High in mid-50's, Low near 30. 

Without splitting hairs and looking at any remaining model discrepancies, will just mention the basic idea that we'll have at least scattered and perhaps numerous showers coming back on Friday, with a High in the 50's and a Low near 40. 

Then Saturday any showers should definitely be more scattered in nature and we have a High back in the 60's, Low in upper 40's approximately.

And to be frank, this extended period still looks unsettled and a messy forecast, sort of unclear, where we have to fall back on probabilities without being able to give as much specific detail as we might like to. 

The High should get back to about 70 for Sunday and Monday. Lows in the 50's. Sunday the chance of rain is minimal, but it might be a lot like Thursday in the sense that clouds may hang around even if there is little or no rain. 

And then Monday the rain chances start to climb again, up to about 40-50% as another cold front approaches. That next front probably will not pass through the area until at least Tuesday of next week. But we could see at least some scattered rain ahead of it Monday of next week.

I did glance at the GFS and ECMWF latest runs. The weekend rain is a little clearer than it was between the two models, and I have a better idea of where to draw probability lines. After looking at it though, I'm not sure I'd rule out Monday for our next cold front arriving. Confidence is not high in the extended period this time, only for the basic forecast over the next three days. For the other four days, we are looking at general trends with this one. None of it is clear-cut. 



Our rainfall totals for this forecast period should average about one inch. 

And I would give you a link to the weather safety classes Nashville is holding, but they took it off their website and have not recently promoted it on the X-rated tweetybird site formerly known as Twitter. Which is the only social media even halfway worth keeping up with anymore. So if you haven't already signed up for one, just forget it. Nashville has issued a wind advisory:



The Huntsville office is holding off on one for now, which is why Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin Counties stick out like a sore thumb there. I'm glad some of our local broadcast meteorologists have made efforts to improve some of these weird potholes in communicating with the general public that people working for the government are powerless to do much about. At least this is not high-impact weather. It still frustrates me sometimes when such things happen during a winter storm or something like that. The map just looks so goofy here. Anyone can figure out that the winds will be similar in those three counties as in the surrounding counties. So it just looks strange. The County Warning/Forecast Areas look pretty arbitrary sometimes, but it is not as bad as a time back in the 1990's when the Huntsville office was actually shut down. And Birmingham had to try to issue warnings for all of North and Central Alabama. We've got it pretty good these days. The offices tend to coordinate well when the weather is high-impact. When somebody I know just survived major brain surgery and can talk clearly, I'm not going to gripe too much. Though the overall situation, topped off with some other things, has put me in a foul mood. 

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Warm and Sunny Tomorrow, Then Clouds and Rain/Storms Return by Wednesday

Today (High 66): Sunny. Mild.

Tonight (Low 46): Clear. Cool.

Tomorrow (High 71): Mostly sunny. Warmer and becoming breezy.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 57): Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm and windy.

Wednesday (High 72, Low 61): Rainy and windy. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, and some could be strong.

Thursday (High 53, Low 32): Mostly sunny.

Friday (High 56, Low 38): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 61, Low 43): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 65, Low 46): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Winter Storm to Affect the Rockies and Nearby

Just passing this along since usually I stay locked into our local weather, but this is a story in the bigger picture.  

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

234 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2024


Valid 12Z Sun Feb 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024


...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain

Region, Northern/Central Rockies, and higher elevations of the Great

Basin...


...Light snow over parts of the Northeast and snow over the Northern

Plains on Monday...


...Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday...


A strong winter storm and cold front will move into the Northwest on

Sunday and progress southeastward into the Northern Rockies on Monday.

Heavy mountain snow over the Cascades will impact the passes by late

Sunday, with greater than 80% chance of at least a foot of snow above

1500ft through early Tuesday. In addition, snowfall will sometimes become

heavy, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, along with windy conditions,

creating areas of blowing snow and drifting snow and significantly

reducing visibility.


Furthermore, snow squalls are likely along the path of the cold front on

Monday over the Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies, which could create

a rapid drop in visibility and icing on roadways, leading to dangerous

travel. Additionally, much colder air behind the strong cold front will

drop temperatures into the teens and colder by Tuesday morning.


Further, the system will produce coastal rain over the Northwest, with

snow levels lowering to near sea level after the front passes. Overnight

Sunday, rain will move into parts of California, with higher-elevation

snow. Moreover, on Monday, heavy snow will impact the Sierra Nevada

Mountains. A wave of low pressure will move over parts of the Northern

Plains by Monday evening as snow develops over the region. There is also a

risk of rain/freezing rain moving over parts of the Upper Mississippi

Valley.


Meanwhile, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward

over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio

Valley. The moisture will aid in creating scattered light rain showers

over parts of the Ohio Valley overnight Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday,

the moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio

Valley. Furthermore, upper-level energy will assist in creating light snow

over parts of the Northeast overnight Sunday into Monday evening.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Cold Tomorrow Morning, Then a Warming Trend/A Couple Sunny Days, Then Storms Coming in Wednesday

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 67, Low 30): Sunny. Cold morning, mild afternoon.

Monday (High 71, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Warmer. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Warm and breezy.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 72, Low 63): Thunderstorms likely - a few could become severe. 

Thursday (High 54, Low 35): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower.

Friday (High 56, Low 39): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 61, Low 44): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 67, Mínima 30): Soleado. Mañana fría, tarde templada.

Lunes (Máxima 71, Mínima 46): Mayormente soleado. Más cálido.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 58): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada. Cálido y ventoso.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 72, Mínima 63): Es probable que haya tormentas eléctricas; algunas podrían volverse severas.

Jueves (Máxima 54, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia.

Viernes (Máxima 56, Mínima 39): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 61, Mínima 44): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Friday, February 23, 2024

Plenty of Sunshine Through Early Next Week, Unsettled Pattern Returns Wednesday

Today (High 65): Sunny. Mild and breezy.

Tonight (Low 40): Clear skies. Breezy and cool.

Tomorrow (High 59): Sunny. Staying cool and breezy.

Sunday (High 64, Low 30): Sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon.

Monday (High 69, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Milder temperatures. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 56): Partly to mostly cloudy.

Wednesday (High 72, Low 60): Showers and thunderstorms likely - some storms could become strong.

Thursday (High 55, Low 40): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 60, Low 41): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Wind Advisory

 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1156 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024


ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-230100-

/O.NEW.KHUN.WI.Y.0004.240222T1800Z-240223T0100Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-

Including the cities of Russellville, Huntsville, Decherd,

Sewanee, Lynchburg, Sheffield, Decatur, Winchester, Florence,

Boaz, Rainsville, Albertville, Cowan, Athens, Moulton, Muscle

Shoals, Red Bay, Town Creek, Estill Springs, Cullman, Tuscumbia,

Scottsboro, Fayetteville, Guntersville, Fort Payne, and Arab

1156 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest

  Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$


KTW

Some Rain Tonight, Very Nice Weekend, Warming Up Next Week with Potential for Some Storms

FORECAST:

Today (High 69): Overcast and breezy. An isolated shower is possible.

Tonight (Low 50): Showers likely with periods of gusty winds. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, and a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, especially in Northwest Alabama. 

Friday (High 63, Low 50): Partly to mostly sunny. Clouds gradually decreasing throughout the day, staying breezy.

Saturday (High 58, Low 40): Sunny. Still breezy.

Sunday (High 66, Low 30): Sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 70, Low 46): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 76, Low 57): Partly to mostly cloudy. 

Wednesday (High 73, Low 61): Thunderstorms likely - some could become severe. 

Thursday (High 56, Low 47): Mostly sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Hoy (Máxima 69): Nublado y con brisa. Es posible una lluvia ducha aislada.

Esta Noche (Mínima 50): Probables lluvias con períodos de ráfagas de viento. También son posibles tormentas aisladas y no se puede descartar una tormenta más fuerte, especialmente en el noroeste de Alabama.

Viernes (Máxima 63, Mínima 50): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Las nubes disminuirán gradualmente a lo largo del día y se mantendrán con brisa.

Sábado (Máxima 58, Mínima 40): Soleado. Todavía con brisa.

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 30): Soleado. Frío por la mañana, fresco por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 70, Mínima 46): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 76, Mínima 57): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado.

Miércoles (Máxima 73, Mínima 61): Es probable que haya tormentas eléctricas; algunas podrían volverse severas.

Jueves (Máxima 56, Mínima 47): Mayormente soleado.

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Some Rain Tomorrow Night, Otherwise Mild and Sunny Days

FORECAST:

Thursday (High 69, Low 48): Mostly cloudy and breezy during the day. Showers are likely at night - an isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

Friday (High 63, Low 50): Mostly sunny. Staying breezy.

Saturday (High 60, Low 34): Sunny. Still breezy.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 66, Low 36): Sunny.

Monday (High 70, Low 47): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 73, Low 58): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday (High 71, Low 60): Showers and thunderstorms likely. 

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Sunny, Mild Days for the Most Part/Some Rain Late Thursday

(Forecast)

Wednesday (High 67, Low 36): Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool. 

Thursday (High 69, Low 48): Partly cloudy and breezy with widely scattered showers/a thunderstorm possible during the day. Rain showers are likely at night, but the rain is expected to be light. 

Friday (High 61, Low 47): Mostly sunny and still a little breezy. Some clouds or an isolated shower may linger in the early morning. 

(Extended Outlook)

Saturday (High 60, Low 34): Sunny.

Sunday (High 66, Low 35): Sunny.

Monday (High 70, Low 46): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 72, Low 54): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday, February 19, 2024

Plenty of Sunshine and Seasonable Temperatures, Some Rain Thursday Night

Tuesday (High 60, Low 30): Mostly sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon.

Wednesday (High 67, Low 36): Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool.

Thursday (High 68, Low 49): Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible during the day. Then showers are likely at night - an isolated thunderstorm is also possible in the mix. 

Friday (High 61, Low 47): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 63, Low 34): Sunny.

Sunday (High 69, Low 38): Sunny.

Monday (High 72, Low 50): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Sunshine and Seasonable Temperatures, a Little Rain Thursday Night

President's Day (High 56, Low 25): Sunny. Seasonably cold. 

Tuesday (High 60, Low 30): Mostly sunny. Cold morning, cool afternoon.

Wednesday (High 67, Low 36): Mostly sunny. Cool.

Thursday (High 69, Low 48): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 60, Low 46): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 63, Low 34): Sunny.

Sunday (High 66, Low 35): Sunny. 

Well here I am talking about the weather again. As I've said many times before, it's a sickness. 

We have had sunny skies and a cold, breezy day in the Tennessee Valley, more wind gusts hanging around than was expected after the morning hours. So the wind chill values have stayed in the 30's for many of us. Technically speaking, Cullman saw a High of 46 today with a morning Low of 25. And there too, that Low is not quite as cold as what model guidance led us to expect. The forecasts were more for a Low of 22-23. Still, it's within three degrees, which I consider good enough. I forecast a High of 50 today, and saw others forecasting more like 49. And we only made it to 46. Still it is within the ballpark. Jasper saw a High of 52 and Low of 27. For whatever reason, Haleyville was not as breezy today and saw a High of 49 and Low of 22. Figuring all three of those sites together, I'd say the forecast was basically on target. But the weather can vary a lot even within three adjacent counties, or even across the same county sometimes. A few degrees of temperature difference, or how long the winds stay a little gusty and where, can sometimes be beyond the scope of the science, as great as it is these days. 

Decatur was not all that breezy either, and the winds have already shifted back to the West there. Direction has been variable today. Looks like a High of 48 and Low of 24 there. By the day, I am assuming we don't warm any more past 4 PM. These current temperatures, I am assuming to be the High for today. Huntsville had a High of 48 and Low of 25, that's at the International Airport. Across the Tennessee line, Winchester is another site where the winds have been light and variable today, sunny skies, High of 46 and a Low of 19. Well . . . some places did get as frigid as what my forecast was (believe I went with 22 degrees for the Low), or even more frigid this morning. Fayetteville saw a High of 48 and Low of 21. And let's look at one more site, Nashville, the Music City, made it up to 50 degrees after a morning Low of 20. 

So the forecast wasn't perfect for every single site, but I'd say for the region as a whole, it got the basics right. 

Before we did into the current weather, a reminder that the National Weather Service in Birmingham is doing SKYWARN classes starting at the end of this month. Taking one of these (which are free) will help you to keep yourself and loved ones safe during any severe weather (which we can have a lot of in March and April, sometimes still into the month of May) and also make you a reliable source of weather reports. You'll know what to look for and also when what you are seeing is not an indication of any severe weather. 

The National Weather Service in Nashville is hosting a Severe Weather Awareness Day at Trevecca University this next Saturday, the 24th. 



The front that brought us a little rain night before last is now a weak stalled boundary over about Miami and adjacent waters. Our weather this week for the most part will be coming from the high pressure currently centered over Texas. Notice another area of high pressure up there in the Carolinas. At the moment, our upper-level winds at 500 millibars (about 18,000 feet) are split, Southwest flow around here in the Tennessee Valley, and a Northwest flow for the Ohio River Valley. 



I'm sure nobody noticed this, what with school being out and all, but tomorrow is George Washington's birthday. And it looks like a really nice day around here. You can't expect it not to be a little nippy in the latter half of February, and we'll start the day in the mid-20's again, about 25 degrees for the Low. And then warm to the upper 50's in the afternoon, about 56-58 range. If you look closely at the upper-air pattern between current observations and tomorrow's GFS graphics shown above, you can notice a shortwave trough dropping through here via the Mississippi River Valley. It is starved for moisture and probably won't even produce much in the way of clouds or fog. 



For Tuesday, after that trough is on out of here, you can see that our upper-level winds take on a distinct Northwest component in the Southeast/TN Valley. And at the surface, we have high pressure parked in the Gulf of Mexico, centered near places like Biloxi and Mobile. Although it is not as apparent, if you look closely you can see another shortwave trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. You might need to go look for yourself and look at the 500 millibar animation from the GFS (or the NAM if you prefer). The links for such things are on the left hand side of the screen on the main website, all kinds of weather links and tools. Seeing the animation and being able to control it sometimes makes these features more apparent. The mid-and-high-level clouds that result from this trough should mainly stay over the Tennessee counties. Around here we'll see another sunny day, a High near 60 and a Low near 30. 



And this is just a calm pattern. Wednesday should feature plenty of sunshine again with high pressure firmly in place in our region, a High rebounding to the upper 60's and the Low to about the mid-30's. 



Thursday our upper-level winds turn more westerly as another front approaches. I'm showing it on the WPC maps for Thursday morning. But reading between the lines of the GFS and ECMWF guidance, I think mainly the rain will come Thursday night, a lot like this last round of rain we had. It also looks like light rain for the most part. Any rain during the day Thursday should stay pretty isolated, with a High in the upper 60's and Low in the upper 40's. We could see a few thunderstorms in the mix, though overall instability is looking weak. 




Looks like clearing will be rapid going into Friday though, a mostly sunny day with a High near 60, Low in mid-40's. And the model guidance has backed off on how much of a cooldown we see behind this next front, now looking like Saturday will feature a High in the lower 60's and a Low in the lower 30's. And then next Sunday, High getting into mid/upper 60's, Low in about the mid-30's. 

If you want to peek beyond that, it does look like we'll get a preview of Spring temperatures next week, Highs getting up to about 70 or so. If we see showers and thunderstorms, that is probably going to hold off until at least Wednesday, which is February 28. This is a leap year, so not quite the last day of the month. 


Sticking to this week though, the thing Thursday night should only bring us up to about a quarter-inch of rainfall for places like Huntsville and up into Tennessee. For places like Cullman, Jasper, Oneonta, Blountsville, Double Springs, Haleyville, Hamilton, probably more like a tenth of an inch. 

And our drought is just about done with. 

Not directly related to weather, but glad to report that the radio station whose tower and transmitter were recently stolen has raised about a third already of what they need to replace that equipment and get back on the air instead of only streaming online. One of their DJ's had a relative who wrote books about meteorology though. Sometimes my tangents are relevant even if they are not obviously so. 

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Plenty of Sunshine, Cold Mornings and Cool Afternoons, Some Rain Late Thursday

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 50, Low 22): Sunny but cold. Breezy in the early morning. 

Washington's Birthday (High 56, Low 24): Sunny. Staying pretty cold. 

Tuesday (High 61, Low 29): Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 67, Low 36): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 69, Low 48): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 58, Low 47): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 57, Low 30): Sunny.

READING TEA LEAVES:

Sunday February 25 (High 62, Low 31): Sunny.

Monday February 26 (High 66, Low 35): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday February 27 (High 70, Low 47): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 50, Mínima 22): Soleado pero frío. Ventoso temprano en la mañana.

Cumpleaños de Washington (Máxima 56, Mínima 24): Soleado. Mantenerse bastante frío.

Martes (Máxima 61, Mínima 29): Mayormente soleado. Estacionalmente frío.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 67, Mínima 36): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 69, Mínima 48): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 58, Mínima 47): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 57, Mínima 30): Soleado.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Domingo 25 de febrero (Máxima 62, Mínima 31): Soleado.

Lunes 26 de febrero (Máxima 66, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.

Martes 27 de febrero (Máxima 70, Mínima 47): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES:

Our drought is just about over, read all about it here

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has started scheduling SKYWARN classes, mainly online ones, ahead of our primary severe weather season in the Spring. 

And it looks like my Spanish editions of forecasts are going to be like 10-Day Outlooks. It's sort of like Eugene Burger struggled with whether or not to keep including tricks with sponge balls in his magic shows, don't think he ever did completely give them up. I personally loved the way he did that trick, even though it's been in probably every magic kit for the last 50 years or more. He thought it wasn't as dignified as his other magic. 

DISCUSSION:

It has been a cold and breezy day in the Tennessee Valley, even though the clouds started to break up and let the sunshine back through in the afternoon. Winds have been out of the North with gusts up to 20 miles per hour or so. The High in Cullman was 41 with a Low of 30 so far. We are currently at 36 degrees as of 4:30 PM. It's one of those days when the temperatures can go the wrong way. That "High" of 41 occurred just after Midnight, way early this morning. The Low of 30 did occur about when you'd expect, between about 7-9 AM, so not long after daybreak. Since all the other sites are kind of funky like that, I'm just going to give current temperatures for the other places around the area. Jasper has sunny skies and 41 degrees this evening, winds from the North at 10 mph. Haleyville is sunny and 38, North winds at 8. 

Fort Payne is sunny and 37. Decatur is sunny and 39. Huntsville is overcast and 38. Winchester is sunny and 34. Fayetteville is sunny and 34 also, the winds there gusting all the way to 21 miles per hour, from the North. North winds gusting up to 17 mph in Savannah, on the Western side of Southern Middle Tennessee, nice to see their observations back online, they have sunny skies and 37 degrees. Muscle Shoals has fair skies and 41. Tupelo also has fair skies and 41 degrees, and note the wind there is sustained at 15 mph from the North, not gusts, but sustained. The wind chill there is 33 degrees. And most of us today have felt even colder than we really were technically because of the breeze behind this front. It is mostly cloudy and 37 in Memphis, North winds at 13 mph. And it is partly cloudy and 36 in Nashville, North winds at 12 miles per hour. 




Here is that four-dimensional view of the weather that Chuck Doswell talked about in "The Operational Meteorology of Convective Weather." By radar, satellite, upper-air map (500 millibars here), and surface analysis, you can see what's going on. The cold front has cleared the area and is down in the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula now. It did indeed bring us only light rain, mainly last night. Behind it, we have high pressure moving this way from out in the Great Plains, centered along the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. By the way, when I said I was only reading one meteorology textbook at a time, that's no longer true. I've got bookmarks in three, although two are digital. And I am getting through them slowly. Only one is a real book, other two are e-books. And they are on the back burner of books I've got bookmarks in. I hope I'm learning something that will improve the quality of forecasts here. I keep coming back to this weather forecasting stuff like many people do to an abusive spouse, or like a drunk to the next bottle of liquor. And when I put it that way, I realize that there are worse things to be sort of addicted to. 

This forecast looks like one of the easier ones in a while. 



Tomorrow as high pressure moves in from out West, we will have sunny skies and just a cold day, starting at about 22-23 degrees and only warming to about 49-50 in the afternoon. Winds tonight should still be breezy, and even if we are in the lower 20's overnight and in the early morning tomorrow, the winds could make the wind chill factor down in the 10's. So that's a heads-up to anyone heading out to the early church service or to work tomorrow morning. Throughout most of the day tomorrow though, the winds should calm down to only about 5 mph or calm. Staying out of the North or Northwest in this weather pattern. 



Then for Monday, which is George Washington's Birthday, we'll have sunny conditions again, the High climbing into the upper 50's, about 56-57, after a morning Low in the mid-20's, about 25-24.



On Tuesday, we have good Northwest wind flow at 500 millibars, about 18,000 feet, and at the surface, winds will generally be out of the North/Northeast. Looks like light winds though, so not worried about wind chill as opposed to regular temperatures, not like today has been or tonight will be. We'll be sunny again with a High near 60, Low near 30. Very good radiational cooling for the next three nights. 



Basically the same for Wednesday, might see a few clouds in the sky, but not much, mostly abundant sunshine, and the temperatures will climb back into the mid-or-upper-60's, Low in about the mid-30's. By this time we might see winds turning back more to the West at the surface. 

And maybe that's what I should have put for Tuesday. Yes, I made a mistake there, should have said winds more from the Northwest instead of Northeast. I got my directions mixed up and surface versus upper-level winds. I could explain how, but it would waste both our time. It's not like this is high-impact weather. 



On Thursday another cold front approaches. 


Which the maps from the WPC show more effectively than the raw GFS model graphics. So there you go. 

It is looking like during the day, any rain should stay widely scattered, so about a 30% probability of rain at most, a High in the upper 60's and Low in the upper 40's, could get as high as 50, but probably upper-40's. 


Like with this last system, most of the rain looks like it will come overnight. Showers are likely Thursday night. I didn't really show it here, but the ECMWF is in agreement with this scenario and made rain chances look slim to none during the day Thursday. So rain chance of only 20-30% during the day Thursday, which means isolated showers possible, but most the rain holding off until night. 



Friday we will be at least on the way to becoming mostly sunny, this system being a quick-hitter. Might be a breezy day sort of like today, but should see more sunshine sooner, expecting a High in the upper 50's behind this front, a Low in the mid, maybe upper 40's. 



Then Saturday looks sunny with the Low to start the day back down around 30, warming to mid/upper 50's for the afternoon High. 

And if you want to peek beyond that, both the GFS and the ECMWF keep the high pressure system over our region through Sunday and Monday before another front approaches on Tuesday, which would be February 27. As usual, the ECMWF shows a slightly slower timing. Highs should be near 60 for Sunday, in the 60's Monday, and then perhaps approaching 70 for Tuesday depending on how quickly the pattern changes, warmest air is usually just ahead of a cold frontal boundary. Lows would rebound through the 30's and then be in the 40's or near 50 by Tuesday morning, just as a casual estimate. I may actually try a 10-Day-Forecast this time. Since confidence is good in the first 7 Days. It might actually be halfway close to reliable in this situation. There needs to be a day to let people know at what point the outlook gets dicey though. For now I'm borrowing the phrase "reading tea leaves" from a lawyer I've sometimes followed on YouTube, for a crazy-extended period of time, if I do speculate on it. 


But the WPC, who have better sense than to issue 10-Day forecasts, predict only about an average of up to a tenth of an inch of rainfall for this forecast period, meaning over the next week. Might be more like a quarter-inch for Southern Middle Tennessee, then as you get closer to the Kentucky border, you get more of a chance of seeing a half-inch or greater. In other words, this next rain event Thursday night is expected to be light rain, a lot like this round was. 

We'll see about the following Tuesday, but my gut feeling is that the precipitation from that system will end up getting here more either Tuesday night or Wednesday. When you're looking that far out, the best anyone can give is an educated guess. But based on what the GFS and ECMWF are showing, typical difference in their timing, and my experience with weather patterns this time of year, it may be that Wednesday before we see any of the rain, Tuesday could end up being a get-ready day where it's just sort of warming and clouding up, maybe wind picking up some. I'll do a 10-Day Forecast this time and see how it goes. A lot of times when I tried those, even in summer time, when I went back 7-10 days later and checked forecasts attempting that range, it was almost complete junk. Which is why I don't try it all that often. Still I saw some TV stations doing it at times, and it feels like a fun challenge, to see how much you can get right at that time range, at least when the weather is pretty benign, like right now, or in the summer, when it can get truly boring. This last summer wasn't a boring pattern though, it got pretty crazy. 

I'm not going to show the Climate Prediction stuff, because here lately, I found it to be junk, at least the speculations people were making about it. They issue 8-14 day guidance for the country, and you can look at it on your own if you want. I don't put much more stock in it than I do what the groundhog says every year, even though at least it's based on science. It's one of my quirks, sort of like I hate the Weather Channel's naming winter storms now. I don't mind their "TorCon" index as much as some meteorologists do though, because I met Greg Forbes, and he admits it is only his subjective estimate of how likely tornadoes are for whatever day. I think people take it a little too seriously, but you know, the broadcast world can't avoid hype completely, not even the best meteorologists. And I always considered him to be a fine one. He came across to me as really laid-back and nice in person. He seemed to find it amusing that my kinfolks would want to see a picture since they thought of him as a celebrity. I didn't think of him that way at first, but then realized I was nervous when the time came to actually talk to him. And I used to laugh at how I'd read an old Garth Brooks interview where he said that he got too nervous to talk to George Jones the first time they met. That whole college thing feels like another lifetime ago. I don't know if keeping up this interest, especially posting about it online, is a good idea or not. But here we are. 


Usually I respect Salem's privacy, but today he has been such a little fink that you get a picture of him in one of his cutest sleeping poses. That cord goes to my cell phone, and I have to stop him from swatting and biting it, especially since he has tried to chew on it even when it's plugged up. So I guess he decided to be content to sleep with it nearby. He got Sheba wet food today, salmon flavor, both sides of the weird way they do their cans now. And still bit me and bounced off the walls wanting outside after he was finished with it. So like I say, he has been a fink. He is a strange mix of psychotic and sweet. Even his worst behavior is pretty forgivable, since it is very rarely mean-spirited. He's just a wild man. Last night I had a new book that had a bookmark built into it, and he took a flying leap into my lap and dug a claw into my hand briefly before I even realized he was after that bookmark, had seen it waving around. The last time I had to give him a time-out in the bathroom was when I was writing something I had to submit online, that I actually am getting paid for. And he kept jumping on the button to the power strip the modem was plugged into, turning it off. So I put him in time-out like some people do for their kids until I got that book review submitted. He and I hugged and made up as soon as I could let him out, and while he still jumped up in the window, he didn't jump down on the power button to the surge protector strip again. To expect him to always be calm and behaved would be like expecting Sofia Vergara not to flirt with any guys in a room. Or expecting Elton John to play a concert in an Alabama cap and overalls instead of the more flamboyant clothes he prefers to wear. And I refuse to be that ridiculous. I'm gonna' let my little buddy be himself; he just has to behave within reason. And he is actually one of the best-natured cats I've ever had. He always uses the litter box, and if I've forgotten to scoop it for a day or two, finds ways to protest and let me know, where a lot of cats I've had would just go right beside it or do their business somewhere else. He has his flaws, like we all do, but they tend to be on the foolish and very lovable side. Anyway, he got on my nerves today, so you get to see him in his slumber. 

This weather pattern looks benign. We could see a few thunderstorms Thursday night, but most places will probably just see light rain. And we haven't had another Arctic blast like we had in January. So what can I say . . . enjoy things being a little more peaceful?

As far as 10-Day Outlooks go, I liked the way James Spann and Taylor Sarallo used to do it, with Days 8-10 showing only approximate temperatures or a temperature range. I don't see any of the Huntsville stations doing it that way, and to their credit, I don't think WHNT-19 goes beyond 7 days at all. I think they did part of the time Dan Satterfield and Spencer Denton were there, but then dropped it at some point. There should be a way to communicate forecast uncertainty without doing verbal somersaults. For out to 10 days, you're always going to have uncertainty. The main 7-day stretch can be tricky. Sometimes you'll get an odd pattern where you're more confident in Days 4-7, or at least some part of them, than you are for Days 1-3. 

If I keep doing this, I think I'm going to work on the communication side of it. I don't really feel that the forecast I just wrote above before babbling more down here does a great job of communicating the weather forecast. It is just my best try at a fairly traditional format for now. 

A long time ago, I used to write a brief discussion up top and then put it into a forecast at the bottom. And it was one of my brothers who told me that I lost him way before he got to the bullet-points forecast part. Both of my brothers fancy themselves far more intelligent than me, but this one really has an overinflated view of his own intellect. So it surprised me when he said that I was using too much technical jargon and that he had no clue what a lot of it meant. And he helped me see what I couldn't on my own, that I was doing it upside down. Makes a lot more sense to give people the cliff's notes, and then let them read on and get the details if they care about them. 

And also since then, I've tried to explain what I mean whenever possible. I don't remember what my discussions were like then, but I know I've learned a lot since then. And when I comb through social media and follow links (where there are links . . . sometimes people just splatter it all right there on Twitter/X or whatever), a lot of what I read strikes me as a lot more technical than the discussions here. I try to keep it simple and cut out the fat, besides a little clowning around, but not sure how often that succeeds. 

And for anyone who missed the memo, Taylor is back to work in Birmingham, just up on Red Mountain instead of down in Riverchase. 

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST: Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid.  Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Most...