Quick Radar Check

We've got some thunderstorms moving across North Alabama now. The cluster approaching Russellville is below severe limits but may produce wind gusts up to 40 mph and hail up to about dime or penny size along with heavy rain and a good bit of lightning. 

The ones moving into Winston and Cullman Counties, approaching the cities of Cullman and Double Springs, are definitely not severe, but are producing a lot of lightning. So of course people need to get inside, and for myself, I'll be unplugging this laptop, since I think my last one got fried by lightning while I was asleep. It's always a good idea to stay away from electrical stuff when you've got an electrical storm going on outside. Common sense often gets lost in the hustle and bustle of everyday life. So just a heads up - nothing severe - but not the kind of weather you'd want to walk the dog in either. 

Update to February 15-16 Severe Weather Event (Two More Tornado Tracks Found)

Thanks as usual to NWS Huntsville for all their hard work even during difficult times. 

 965 

NOUS44 KHUN 301612 CCA

PNSHUN

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-280415-

Public Information Statement...Correction

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...NWS Damage Survey for 02/15/2025 and 2/16/2025 Tornado Event Update #6...

Correction...Time has been corrected to CST for start and end time. 

.Update...Additional information from Worldview-3 imagery and 

Franklin County Emergency Management identified two additional 

tornado tracks from February 15, 2025. These tracks are in addition to 

six other tracks surveyed for this event. 

.Atwood Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    90 mph

Path Length /statute/:  6.01 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   75 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             02/15/2025

Start Time:             10:54 PM CST

Start Location:         2 SSW Vina / Franklin County / AL

Start Lat/Lon:          34.3509 / -88.077

End Date:               02/15/2025

End Time:               11:03 PM CST

End Location:           4 E Vina / Franklin County / AL

End Lat/Lon:            34.3797 / -87.9794

Survey Summary:

An EF-1 tornado touched down just west of Vina Shottsville Road

as identified on Worldview-3 satellite imagery. It then traveled

northeastward causing major damage to the metal roof on a

residence on Highway 42 along with a large uprooted tree falling

onto the garage. The tornado continued northeast across Highway

172 where more tree damage was observed by EMA before also

damaging a chicken house roof off of Highway 32 and minor shingle

damage to the roof of a home. The track then continued northeast

through mainly wooded areas where Worldview-3 imagery indicated

several areas of tree damage along the path before crossing

Highway 37 and lifting just west of Bear Creek. Survey photos and

damage points were provided by Franklin County EMA as well as

Worldview-3 satellite imagery. Timing estimated by radar. 

.Keeton Gap Tornado...

Rating:                 EF0

Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph

Path Length /statute/:  2.89 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   75 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             02/15/2025

Start Time:             11:12 PM CST

Start Location:         6 SSW Russellville / Franklin County / AL

Start Lat/Lon:          34.4231 / -87.7915

End Date:               02/15/2025

End Time:               11:15 PM CST

End Location:           5 S Russellville / Franklin County / AL

End Lat/Lon:            34.4375 / -87.744

Survey Summary:

An EF0 tornado touched down west of Highway 61 as seen on

Worldview-3 imagery causing a swath of uprooted trees. The

tornado tracked northeastward damaging the roof of a chicken

house, causing minor damage to the roof of a single-family home,

and damage to a second chicken house off of Factory Falls Road.

The track crossed Highway 43 with two homes damaged on Keeton Gap

Road due to trees falling onto the roof before lifting near the

intersection of Keeton Gap Road and Old Keeton Gap Road. Maximum

winds were estimated at 85 mph. Photos provided by Franklin

County EMA and Worldview-3 imagery. Times estimated by radar. 

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the

following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph

EF1.....86 to 110 mph

EF2.....111 to 135 mph

EF3.....136 to 165 mph

EF4.....166 to 200 mph

EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:

The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to

change pending final review of the events and publication in

NWS Storm Data.

$$

Rain Chances Climb Tonight Through Tomorrow, Then Just Hot and Dry by the 4th of July

FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 85, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day and night. 

Wednesday (High 86, Low 69): Gradually decreasing clouds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible, especially in the morning hours. 

Thursday (High 88, Low 66): Sunny. Seasonably hot but with lower humidity.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Independence Day (High 91, Low 68): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 90, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 89, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

READING TEA LEAVES:

Tuesday July 8 (High 88, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday July 9 (High 89, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday July 10 (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 87, Low 73): Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday (High 90, Low 74): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 92, Low 75): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Independence Day (High 94, Low 75): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday/Sunday (High ~92, Low ~76): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 70): Mayormente nublado. Posibilidad de numerosas lluvias y tormentas durante el día y la noche.

Miércoles (Máxima 86, Mínima 69): Disminución gradual de la nubosidad. Posibilidad de lluvias y tormentas aisladas, especialmente por la mañana.

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 66): Soleado. Caluroso, típico de la temporada, pero con menor humedad.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 91, Mínima 68): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

Lunes (Máxima 89, Mínima: 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Martes 8 de julio (Máxima 88 , Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.

Miércoles 9 de julio (Máxima 89, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.

Jueves 10 de julio (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Martes (Máxima 87, Mínima 73): Probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas.

Miércoles (Máxima 90, Mínima 74): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de numerosas lluvias y tormentas.

Jueves (Máxima 92, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas muy dispersas.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 94, Mínima 75): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Sábado/Domingo (Máxima ~92, Mínima ~96): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

DISCUSSION:

It's a little after 2 PM CDT, but our latest observations showing up are from about 1:35. So we'll use those. Skies are mostly cloudy in Cullman. The temperature is 82 degrees. The dewpoint is 77, making the relative humidity 84%. Winds are out of the South at 8 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.07 inches and falling slowly. Our Low temperature this morning was 70. 

It is partly cloudy in Jasper. The temperature is 86 degrees. The dewpoint is 77, making the relative humidity 75%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.05 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 70 degrees. 

Haleyville's observations have not been available lately, so let's look at Huntsville. It is mostly cloudy with a temperature of 86 degrees. The dewpoint is 72 degrees, making the relative humidity 64%. Winds are West at 12 mph. The pressure is 30.04 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 72. 

                       

                       

We've got some showers and thunderstorms, mainly up across the Tennessee border, and they are staying widely scattered for now. The little bit we've got on the Alabama side so far is really isolated, main storm along the Lawrence/Morgan county line. 

There's a little better coverage of rain over Northern Mississippi, out in Arkansas, and down around Mobile, the Florida Panhandle, into the Gulf of Mexico. 

We have surface High pressure in place over Alabama and Florida. And the winds aloft are going to allow a cold front to push into the Southeast this week, which is rare for this time of year, but can happen. They usually fizzle and die out, but it looks like this one may survive well enough to push through and bring us a couple days of drier air for the holiday actually. 

The radiosonde soundings from 7 AM CDT show an airmass at Birmingham, Nashville, and Jackson about like you'd expect for this time of year, already some unstable air during the early morning hours, very little in the way of wind shear. 

And that's how we get these random showers and thunderstorms amidst mainly muggy days that feature more sun than clouds overall in the summer months. 

So we're about to have a cold front pushing into the region as we move into July, which is sort of an unusual event. It does look like it will stall out on Wednesday, or at least seriously slow down. 

The rest of today, the coverage of rain will increase, and we'll have about a 40% chance, about 4 out of 10, of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. The High should get up to about 86. The heat indices are already up into the 90's but are staying below heat advisory criteria, which I think is 105. 

Tomorrow the rain from that front will push in here, but I'm still not convinced it's going to be one of those soaking, all-day sorts of rain. Will cap the rain chance off at 50%. More clouds than sun overall and more hours with rain for a lot of us than hours of the soupy summer air. High should be about 85, Low near 69-70. 

Then on Wednesday it looks like we'll see a clearing trend, but will keep a low 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in there to account for at least the morning hours. Plus the front is going to slow down. It may not completely stall, but I think taking the rain chances out for Wednesday altogether would be a wrong move at this point. The High should be in the 86-88 range, Low about 67-69 range. 

Now for Thursday, when the weakening front is pushing into far Southern Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, I will take the rain chances out for North Alabama. 

We'll have high pressure moving in from the Northwest. And it just looks like a sunny, seasonably hot day with a High in the upper 80's, a Low actually down in the mid-60's thanks to a brief drop in our humidity levels. 

Then Friday, the 4th of July, also looks mostly sunny. Rain chances are so low, not worth worrying about. Look for a High near 90 and a Low in the upper 60's. Humidity doesn't look too bad for this time of year, but even so, it does look seasonably hot and muggy. Just a little less muggy than some 4th of July's you might remember. 

Model guidance wants to keep us dry again for Saturday, but I don't think I buy into that. It's too much against our local climatology. So I'm bringing back a 20% chance of isolated rain for Saturday. Look for a High near 90 or so, Low near 70. 

And Sunday looks about the same. 

Looks like a little more Gulf moisture available Monday, enough to bump rain chance up to 30% but will keep temperatures near 90 for the High, 70 for the Low. Might adjust the High downward just a degree or two. 

Then if you move into the land of reading tea leaves, days 8-10 (Tuesday through Thursday of next week), it looks like rain chances increase a little but still pretty scattered, an unsettled summer pattern, Highs close to 90, Lows close to 70. May not even include this in the forecast up top. But then again, I might, since it's summer and the weather is low-impact. It's okay to experiment at such times. And I hope to see the day when 10-day-forecasts are actually reliable. Even in the 1980's-90's, television stations typically did a 5-day forecast, not the 7-day forecast we take for granted now. So advances do happen. It's just jumping the gun for now, to do a 10-day-outlook and expect it to be as accurate as the first 3, 5, or 7 days. So I try to avoid those in the really dynamic weather patterns, like the Spring we just had. 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring what the remnants of that front may do once it gets into the Gulf of America, the Florida Peninsula, and perhaps the Atlantic Ocean. If anything develops, it will be this weekend or early next week. A tropical or subtropical Low could gradually develop, but the risk of that happening is estimated at only 20%. So if you've got plans for a trip to the beach for the weekend, I wouldn't lose any sleep over this. If you want to be on the safe side, keep an eye on future forecasts, but this is very speculative. It does not have the look or feel of something I would cancel holidays plans over, and frankly, it may turn out to be a big bunch of nothing. The NHC is required to call things straight down the middle, so they are noting this possibility and also noting that there is only a 20% chance of anything developing, and that even if it does, it may be "subtropical".

Tropical Storm Barry dissipated over Mexico last night and today. On the other hand, Tropical Storm Flossie is down on the other side of the waters and is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of Southwestern Mexico with a broader Tropical Storm Watch around it. The Mexican states most likely to deal with heavy rainfall (which could lead to flooding and mudslides) are Guerrero, Michoaca'n, Colima, and Jalisco. 

The main rain over the next week is going to be down along the Gulf Coast, but we could still see an average of between half an inch and one inch of rain up in North Alabama/Southern Tennessee. 

Buy Me a Coffee

@thatweatherdude

Tropical Storm Flossie Update

Tropical storm warnings have been added for Southwest Mexico. 

000

WTPZ31 KNHC 301742

TCPEP1

 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 6A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025

1200 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

 

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.9N 103.1W

ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Zihuatanejo to east of Punta San Telmo

* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

 

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the

progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was

located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.1 West. Flossie is

moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to

west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h)

with higher gusts. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during

the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a

hurricane tonight or Tuesday.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (145 km)

from the center.

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header

WTPZ41 KNHC.

 

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall

totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,

across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,

Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall

could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides,

especially in steep terrain.

 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service

Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through

Tuesday.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast

of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

  

545 

WTPZ41 KNHC 301439

TCDEP1

 

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025

900 AM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

 

Flossie continues to consolidate this morning with GOES-19 infrared 

imagery showing deep convection bursting over the low-level center. 

A SSMIS microwave pass from 1117 UTC this morning depicts the system 

continues to become better organized, with curved banding and 

potentially an inner core trying to develop. Latest Dvorak satellite 

intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased this advisory 

to T/3.0. UW-CIMMS objective estimates range from 45 to 53 kt. Given 

the improving structure and recent satellite trends, the initial 

intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid 

intensification, with low vertical wind shear, plentiful moisture, 

and warm SSTs. The latest NHC forecast explicitly forecasts rapid 

intensification over the next 24 hours, and it is noted that some 

SHIPS guidance shows a 50-65 percent chance of a 55kt increase in 

the next 48 h. The NHC peak intensity forecast remains on the higher 

end of the intensity guidance near the HCCA corrected consensus. In 

about 48-60 hours, environmental conditions become increasingly less 

favorable along the forecast track, with drier air and cooler sea 

surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. 

By day 4, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone as 

the system will struggle to produce convection within the harsh 

environment.  

 

The initial estimated motion is toward the northwest, or 310/9 kt. 

A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected throughout the 

forecast period, as Flossie is steered around the western periphery 

of a mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast near the previous and 

lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids.

 

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A 

shift in track to the right of the official forecast could bring 

more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally 

heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of 

Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. 

Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly 

in steep terrain.

 

2. A tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of

southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected

late today through Tuesday.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/1500Z 15.6N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  02/0000Z 18.2N 106.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 60H  03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Nepaul

000

WTPZ51 KNHC 301440

TDSEP1

WTPZ51 KNHC 301440

TDSEP1



Tormenta Tropical Flossie Discusión Número 6

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  EP062025

900 AM CST Lunes 30 de junio de 2025

Flossie continúa consolidarse esta mañana con GOES-19 imágenes

infrarrojas que muestran una convección profunda en el centro de

bajo nivel. Un paso de microondas del SSMIS desde las 1117 UTC esta

mañana representa el sistema continuando a ser mejor organizado, con

bandas curvas y potencialmente un núcleo interno que intenta

desarrollarse. Últimas estimaciones de intensidad de satélite de

Dvorak de TAFB y SAB han aumentado esta advertencia a T/3.0. Las

estimaciones objetivas de UW-CIMMS varían de 45 a 53 kt. Dada la

mejora de la estructura y las tendencias de satélite recientes, la

intensión inicial se establece en 50 kt para esta advertencia.

Las condiciones ambientales son favorables para una intensificación

estable a rápida, con cizalladura baja del viento vertical,

abundante humedad y SSTs cálidos. El último pronóstico del CNH

pronostica explícitamente una intensificación rápida durante las

próximas 24 horas, y se observa que alguna guía de SHIPS muestra una

probabilidad de 50-65 por ciento de un aumento de 55 kt en las

próximas 48 h. El pronóstico de intensidad máxima del CNH permanece

en el extremo más alto de la guía de intensidad cerca del consenso

corregido de HCCA. En aproximadamente 48-60 horas, las condiciones

ambientales se vuelven cada vez más menos favorables a lo largo de

la trayectoria del pronóstico, con aire más seco y temperaturas de

la superficie del mar más frías, que deberían inducir una tendencia

de debilitamiento constante. Para el día 4, se pronostica que

Flossie se convierta en un ciclón pos-tropical ya que el sistema

tendrá dificultades para producir convección dentro del ambiente

hostil.

El movimiento inicial estimado es hacia el noroeste, o 310/9 kt. Se

espera que el movimiento del noroeste a oeste-noroeste durante todo

el período de pronóstico, ya que Flossie está dirigido alrededor de

la periferia oeste de una cresta de nivel medio. El pronóstico de la

trayectoria del CNH cerca de la anterior y se encuentra más cerca de

las ayudas de consenso corregido de HCCA.

Los residentes de México deben permanecer actualizados en el último

pronóstico. Un cambio en la trayectoria a la derecha del pronóstico

oficial podría traer impactos más significativos a la costa del

suroeste de México.

MENSAJES CLAVE:

1. Las bandas exteriores de Tormenta Tropical Flossie deberían traer

localmente fuertes lluvias a porciones costeras de los estados

Mexicanos de Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco hasta el

miércoles. Inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra que amenazan la

vida son posibles, particularmente en terreno empinado.

2. Una alerta de tormenta tropical está en efecto para una porción

del suroeste de México, donde se esperan condiciones de tormenta

tropical a última hora de hoy hasta el martes.

PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 30/1500Z 15.6N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

 12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

 24H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

 36H 02/000Z 18.2N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

 48H 02/1200Z 19.2N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

 60H 03/000Z 20.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

 72H 03/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

 96H 04/1200Z 23.0N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H 05/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO

$$

Pronosticador Kelly/Nepaul

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

802 

WTPZ11 KNHC 301743

TASEP1



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Flossie Advertencia Intermedia Número 6A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  EP062025

1200 PM CST lunes 30 de junio de 2025

...FLOSSIE CONTINÚA FORTALECE...

RESUMEN DE 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...15.9N 103.1W

ALREDEDOR DE 155 MI...250 KM SW DE ZIHUATANEJO MÉXICO

ALREDEDOR DE 230 MI...370 KM SSE DE MANZANILLO MÉXICO

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH...105 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NW O 310 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...996 MB...29.42 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Una Advertencia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Punta San Telmo a Playa Perula

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Zihuatanejo al este de Punta San Telmo

* Norte de Playa Perula a Cabo Corrientes

Una Advertencia de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan

condiciones de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de

aviso dentro de 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de

tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia,

generalmente dentro de 48 horas.

Intereses en otro lugar en el suroeste de México deberían monitorear

el progreso de la Tormenta Tropical Flossie.

Para información de tormenta específica en su área, por favor

monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical

Flossie se localizó cerca de la latitud 15.9 Norte, longitud 103.1

Oeste. Flossie se está moviendo hacia el noroeste cerca de 10 mph

(17 km/h). Un movimiento del noroeste a oeste-noroeste debería

continuar durante los próximos días.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 65 mph (105

km/h) con ráfagas más altas. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento

estable a rápido durante los próximos dos días, y se espera que el

sistema se convierta en un huracán esta noche o el martes.

Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 90 millas (145 km) desde el centro.

La presión central mínima estimada es 996 mb (29.42 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para Tormenta Tropical Flossie se pueden encontrar en

el Tropical

Ciclón Discusión bajo el encabezado AWIPS MIATCDEP1 y el encabezado

de la OMM WTPZ41 KNHC.

LLUVIA: Se espera que Tormenta Tropical Flossie produzca totales de

lluvia de 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales máximos aislados de 10

pulgadas, a través de porciones de los estados Mexicanos de Oaxaca,

Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco hasta el miércoles.Esta lluvia

podría conducir a inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra aislados

que amenazan la vida, especialmente en terreno empinado.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia asociada

con Tormenta Tropical Flossie, por favor vea el Gráfico de Tormenta

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología Tormenta de Lluvia Total

disponible en hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área

de aviso, y son posibles dentro de las áreas de vigilancia, esta

noche hasta el martes.

OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por Flossie afectarán porciones de la

costa del suroeste de México durante los próximos días.Estas

marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje y corrientes

marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor, consulte los productos de

su oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 300 PM CST.

$$

Pronosticador Kelly/Nepaul

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

  

Higher Rain Chances Tomorrow and Tuesday, Hot and Dry Later in Week

Monday (High 87, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. 

Tuesday (High 85, Low 71): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 65): Sunny.

Independence Day (High 92, Low 68): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 91, Low 70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday (High 91, Low 71): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

At 5 PM CDT skies are fair in Cullman. The temperature is 77 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 75 degrees, making the relative humidity 94%. Winds are out of the South at 6 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.07 inches and steady. 

We've had a couple of thunderstorms today along with a few hours of just peaceful rain. The rain added up, and local emergency management reported some flash flooding in and around the city of Cullman, from about West Point over to Holly Pond. That warning for the flooding has been allowed to expire on time. 

We still have a flood advisory that does include most of Blount County, places like Blountsville and Oneonta. 

We still had a High of 88 today and a Low of 72. It got muggy before the rain and thunderbumpers hit. It's a fairly typical summer's day, but there are some boundaries that have served as the focus for a little higher than average rain chances. 

And really there is nothing that highlights today, as to why we had the luck to have so much rain over North Alabama in the midday/afternoon. Nothing on the synoptic scale. You have to look to the mesoscale. There were several outflow boundaries from showers and thunderstorms from previous days that became the focus for more stuff forming today in the heat and humidity. And that's why a lot of people call summer rain and thunderstorms random. It is just about impossible to predict those small-scale boundaries and where they will cause the rain to form. I sort of like the spontaneity of it. 

For tomorrow and Tuesday, going to bring rain chances up to 50% as a cold front approaches. Cold fronts usually stall out and dissipate over our region in the summer months. High pressure in the Gulf or over the Southeast keeps them from moving all the way through and bringing us the cool, dry air we'd have in the spring months. 

The High tomorrow should be about 86-88 degrees, the Low near 70. Then on Tuesday, a High near 85 and a Low near 70. 

Having said that, some High pressure will move our way from out West and keep us mostly dry in the extended. 

For Wednesday, only bringing the rain chance down to 30%. High should be in the upper 80's, Low still near 70, at least in the upper 60's. 

Thursday going to forecast a sunny day with not enough chance of rain to even worry about. Technically no summer day is immune, but most of us are going to stay dry. High should climb into the upper 80's and the Low down in the mid-60's due to some lower humidity we'll have briefly. 

Friday is the 4th of July, and it looks like most of us will stay mostly sunny, negligible rain chances, High of 90 or so, the Low in the mid-to-upper-60's. 

For Saturday and Sunday, I think climatology is going to win over the numerical model guidance, and will forecast a 20% chance of rain again, Highs near 90, Lows near 70. 

There is a low chance of what's left of that frontal boundary trying to produce some mischief in the tropics next weekend. But the chance is only about 20% of anything even "subtropical" developing. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it, just be aware that we are into hurricane season now and that the oceans are unusually warm this year. The season is likely to be active whenever it does get going. 

We already have some tropical action down around Mexico. Tropical Storm Barry is getting ready to make landfall near Cabo Rojo, between Tuxplan and Tampico. Its winds are sustained at 45 miles per hour, but the main risk as it moves inland will be flooding and mudslides. They have very mountainous terrain down there. You know how bad the impacts of Hurricane Helene were last year in the Appalachians, because of flooding going down those mountains? This doesn't look anywhere near as bad as that, but it's just a reminder for people who don't know much about Mexico, that they always have to look out for heavy rains coming down the mountains. Because there are a lot of mountains. And they have to worry about mudslides and flooding a lot more often than we do up this way. We're on the edge of the Appalachian Mountains in North Alabama. They run through Northeast Alabama and Eastern Tennessee mainly. And I'm just saying, their situation in Mexico is different. So when things are quiet here, I try to make note of the places that are having tropical trouble. And their situation down there is simply different. They have to take a flooding threat more seriously from a tropical storm than people typically would in Central or North Alabama. And it's just a difference in the land. Sort of like people in Oklahoma or Kansas don't have to deal with even the limited tropical impacts we sometimes have in Alabama. 

A Tropical Storm Watch is up for much of Southwestern Mexico, from about Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. 

Maximum sustained winds are currently at 40 mph, but it is expected to become a hurricane within the next day or two. It will probably stay far enough offshore that Southern Mexico will only experience tropical-storm force winds, but residents are advised to stay tuned to the latest forecasts, since it is a close call. A slight shift in the track could bring hurricane conditions to at least parts of this general area. And people need to be prepared for that, to be on the safe side. Movement is currently West/Northwest at 8 miles per hour. 

Anyway, the main reason I decided to post another forecast today was seeing that low-end chance of something tropical or subtropical trying to form in the Gulf or around Florida next weekend. Thought I'd better address the issue. A lot of times I feel like it's my job to not push the message so much as look at the messages that are already being shouted from the rooftops and try to sort them out, tell people what's really going on. The most hyped scenarios are almost never the most likely or realistic scenarios. 

Just when I started to get the feeling I needed to clean up my act again and lay off the adolescent humor when posting weather blog stuff, I saw where two usually classy, well-respected meteorologists had some lapses of their own. It's a Sunday, so we'll probably have another storm and I'll get struck by lightning for this, but since I enjoyed seeing these two guys being naughty on their social media accounts, I'll pass them along. 

 

Dildo Newfoundland! #Newfoundland ⁦@NLtweets⁩ #nlwx pic.twitter.com/qdbK0fzjvq

— John Gordon (@mammatusman) June 23, 2025

I guess that one speaks for itself. It beats the news of all these big, tough men in the world shooting missiles at each other and bragging as to whose missiles are the biggest and most likely to go nuclear. 

Spotted today over Mobile… photo from Amber Byrd pic.twitter.com/CGzVp4vsr1

— James Spann (@spann) June 29, 2025

And apparently even a meteorologist who teaches Sunday school couldn't resist the irony of a woman named Amber Byrd sending him a picture of a cloud that looked like somebody giving that all-American salute, the way the Beverly Hillbillies thought people said howdy in California. 

All right, now let's get our minds out of the gutter and look at an incredible tornado that happened in Gary, South Dakota yesterday. Because destruction is more fun to look at than off-color humor. No one cares about decency these days, so I redirect our attention purely in the name of enjoying destruction . . . behold . . . 

360 Clip of Gary Tornado. Wow. pic.twitter.com/1jv7OARNDy

— Jakob McMillin (@JakobWX) June 29, 2025

In all seriousness, this is a beautiful storm to see. Not one I'd want to be in the path of. Lots of people took pictures and video of it, but I like the time-lapse view that shows how it changed direction and intensity in its life cycle. 

And even with my joke about enjoying pure destruction above, I'm happy to be able to say that the tornado reports from yesterday do not currently include reports of any injuries, although several tornadoes happened up that way, mostly in Minnesota. 

We did have some wind damage locally from these random storms of summer yesterday, a tree down blocking the road at 1985 County Road 85 in Fort Payne. And then over at Lexington, another tree was blown down blocking both lanes at 2310 County Road 92. Nobody got hurt from either of those trees being blown down either. 

But it can happen. A few days ago, we did have an injury in Mountain Brook near Birmingham where a tree fell on a home and did hurt someone. So even though our summers are relatively calm weatherwise around here, a little caution is wise, whether it's to do with a rogue strong storm like that, plain old lightning you need to get out of, or just the heat. 

For the most part, though, I think summers are to enjoy and relish all the sounds, whether it's the sounds or nature or of the ice cream truck. If you have the luxury of still doing some of that.