Sunday, June 29, 2025

Higher Rain Chances Tomorrow and Tuesday, Hot and Dry Later in Week

Monday (High 87, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. 

Tuesday (High 85, Low 71): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 65): Sunny.

Independence Day (High 92, Low 68): Mostly sunny.

Saturday (High 91, Low 70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday (High 91, Low 71): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

At 5 PM CDT skies are fair in Cullman. The temperature is 77 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 75 degrees, making the relative humidity 94%. Winds are out of the South at 6 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.07 inches and steady. 

We've had a couple of thunderstorms today along with a few hours of just peaceful rain. The rain added up, and local emergency management reported some flash flooding in and around the city of Cullman, from about West Point over to Holly Pond. That warning for the flooding has been allowed to expire on time. 

We still have a flood advisory that does include most of Blount County, places like Blountsville and Oneonta. 

We still had a High of 88 today and a Low of 72. It got muggy before the rain and thunderbumpers hit. It's a fairly typical summer's day, but there are some boundaries that have served as the focus for a little higher than average rain chances. 



And really there is nothing that highlights today, as to why we had the luck to have so much rain over North Alabama in the midday/afternoon. Nothing on the synoptic scale. You have to look to the mesoscale. There were several outflow boundaries from showers and thunderstorms from previous days that became the focus for more stuff forming today in the heat and humidity. And that's why a lot of people call summer rain and thunderstorms random. It is just about impossible to predict those small-scale boundaries and where they will cause the rain to form. I sort of like the spontaneity of it. 




For tomorrow and Tuesday, going to bring rain chances up to 50% as a cold front approaches. Cold fronts usually stall out and dissipate over our region in the summer months. High pressure in the Gulf or over the Southeast keeps them from moving all the way through and bringing us the cool, dry air we'd have in the spring months. 

The High tomorrow should be about 86-88 degrees, the Low near 70. Then on Tuesday, a High near 85 and a Low near 70. 

Having said that, some High pressure will move our way from out West and keep us mostly dry in the extended. 

For Wednesday, only bringing the rain chance down to 30%. High should be in the upper 80's, Low still near 70, at least in the upper 60's. 

Thursday going to forecast a sunny day with not enough chance of rain to even worry about. Technically no summer day is immune, but most of us are going to stay dry. High should climb into the upper 80's and the Low down in the mid-60's due to some lower humidity we'll have briefly. 

Friday is the 4th of July, and it looks like most of us will stay mostly sunny, negligible rain chances, High of 90 or so, the Low in the mid-to-upper-60's. 

For Saturday and Sunday, I think climatology is going to win over the numerical model guidance, and will forecast a 20% chance of rain again, Highs near 90, Lows near 70. 


There is a low chance of what's left of that frontal boundary trying to produce some mischief in the tropics next weekend. But the chance is only about 20% of anything even "subtropical" developing. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it, just be aware that we are into hurricane season now and that the oceans are unusually warm this year. The season is likely to be active whenever it does get going. 



We already have some tropical action down around Mexico. Tropical Storm Barry is getting ready to make landfall near Cabo Rojo, between Tuxplan and Tampico. Its winds are sustained at 45 miles per hour, but the main risk as it moves inland will be flooding and mudslides. They have very mountainous terrain down there. You know how bad the impacts of Hurricane Helene were last year in the Appalachians, because of flooding going down those mountains? This doesn't look anywhere near as bad as that, but it's just a reminder for people who don't know much about Mexico, that they always have to look out for heavy rains coming down the mountains. Because there are a lot of mountains. And they have to worry about mudslides and flooding a lot more often than we do up this way. We're on the edge of the Appalachian Mountains in North Alabama. They run through Northeast Alabama and Eastern Tennessee mainly. And I'm just saying, their situation in Mexico is different. So when things are quiet here, I try to make note of the places that are having tropical trouble. And their situation down there is simply different. They have to take a flooding threat more seriously from a tropical storm than people typically would in Central or North Alabama. And it's just a difference in the land. Sort of like people in Oklahoma or Kansas don't have to deal with even the limited tropical impacts we sometimes have in Alabama. 



A Tropical Storm Watch is up for much of Southwestern Mexico, from about Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. 

Maximum sustained winds are currently at 40 mph, but it is expected to become a hurricane within the next day or two. It will probably stay far enough offshore that Southern Mexico will only experience tropical-storm force winds, but residents are advised to stay tuned to the latest forecasts, since it is a close call. A slight shift in the track could bring hurricane conditions to at least parts of this general area. And people need to be prepared for that, to be on the safe side. Movement is currently West/Northwest at 8 miles per hour. 

Anyway, the main reason I decided to post another forecast today was seeing that low-end chance of something tropical or subtropical trying to form in the Gulf or around Florida next weekend. Thought I'd better address the issue. A lot of times I feel like it's my job to not push the message so much as look at the messages that are already being shouted from the rooftops and try to sort them out, tell people what's really going on. The most hyped scenarios are almost never the most likely or realistic scenarios. 

Just when I started to get the feeling I needed to clean up my act again and lay off the adolescent humor when posting weather blog stuff, I saw where two usually classy, well-respected meteorologists had some lapses of their own. It's a Sunday, so we'll probably have another storm and I'll get struck by lightning for this, but since I enjoyed seeing these two guys being naughty on their social media accounts, I'll pass them along. 



 
I guess that one speaks for itself. It beats the news of all these big, tough men in the world shooting missiles at each other and bragging as to whose missiles are the biggest and most likely to go nuclear. 


And apparently even a meteorologist who teaches Sunday school couldn't resist the irony of a woman named Amber Byrd sending him a picture of a cloud that looked like somebody giving that all-American salute, the way the Beverly Hillbillies thought people said howdy in California. 

All right, now let's get our minds out of the gutter and look at an incredible tornado that happened in Gary, South Dakota yesterday. Because destruction is more fun to look at than off-color humor. No one cares about decency these days, so I redirect our attention purely in the name of enjoying destruction . . . behold . . . 

In all seriousness, this is a beautiful storm to see. Not one I'd want to be in the path of. Lots of people took pictures and video of it, but I like the time-lapse view that shows how it changed direction and intensity in its life cycle. 


And even with my joke about enjoying pure destruction above, I'm happy to be able to say that the tornado reports from yesterday do not currently include reports of any injuries, although several tornadoes happened up that way, mostly in Minnesota. 

We did have some wind damage locally from these random storms of summer yesterday, a tree down blocking the road at 1985 County Road 85 in Fort Payne. And then over at Lexington, another tree was blown down blocking both lanes at 2310 County Road 92. Nobody got hurt from either of those trees being blown down either. 

But it can happen. A few days ago, we did have an injury in Mountain Brook near Birmingham where a tree fell on a home and did hurt someone. So even though our summers are relatively calm weatherwise around here, a little caution is wise, whether it's to do with a rogue strong storm like that, plain old lightning you need to get out of, or just the heat. 

For the most part, though, I think summers are to enjoy and relish all the sounds, whether it's the sounds or nature or of the ice cream truck. If you have the luxury of still doing some of that. 
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