Better Rain Chances, Milder Temperatures for a While

FORECAST:

Friday (High 82, Low 68): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 84, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 85, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 85, Low 68): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 86, Low 68): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 87, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 87, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday July 26 (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday July 27 (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday July 28 (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 87, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 77): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Next Week (Highs in upper 80's, Lows in lower 70's): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day/night.

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 82, Mínima 68): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Sábado (Máxima 84, Mínima 67): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 67): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 85, Mínima 68): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 68): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 87, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes 26 de Julio (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado 27 de Julio (Máxima 89, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo 28 de Julio (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 87, Mínima 76): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 77): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 76): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

La Próxima Semana (Máximas en los 80 grados superiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados inferiores): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas cada día/noche.

DISCUSSION:

At 2:35 PM skies are mostly sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 82 degrees. The dewpoint is 75 degrees, making relative humidity 79%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.04 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 70. 

It is sunny and 88 degrees in Jasper. The dewpoint is 72 making the relative humidity 59%. Winds are from the Northwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.03 inches and steady. The Low this morning was 72. 

And while the other observations have lagged when it's really about 10 minutes after 3:00, so I had to use the 2:35 observations, Haleyville's 3 PM observations have actually come in. So they are mostly cloudy and 83 degrees. The dewpoint is 71, making the relative humidity 67%. Wind is variable at 5 mph. Pressure is 30.06 inches/1016.2 millibars and falling. The Low was 70 this morning. 

It is mostly cloudy and 86 degrees in Huntsville. The dewpoint is 71, making the relative humidity 61%. Winds are Northwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.01 inches/1015.3 millibars and falling. Just had some rain move through Huntsville, light rain, within past hour or two. The Low this morning was 75. That's muggy. 

Nashville is mostly cloudy and 84 degrees. The dewpoint is 64, making the relative humidity 51%. Winds are out of the North at 13 miles per hour with higher gusts up to 23 mph. The pressure is 30.05 inches and falling. That's 1016.9 millibars. The Low this morning was 73. 

A stalled front has overcome our ridge of high pressure for now and put us under an upper-level trough. And it looks like this pattern will continue for a while, kind of anomalous. Then again so was our heat at some earlier parts of this summer. 

Some of the thunderstorms in the Carolinas today are reaching severe limits with large hail and damaging winds. Around here we're expecting mostly general thunderstorms. 

Tomorrow we'll only get up to about 80-83 degrees, morning Low in the upper 60's. Skies should be mostly cloudy, and rain chance about 50%, so numerous periods of rain or thunder possible throughout the day. 

Then it's the same basic soupy airmass on Saturday if you believe the GFS. 

The NAM is a little more conservative with the rain chances, and I think that's right. Going to cut them back to 40% for Saturday, expecting a High in the lower 80's and Low in the upper 60's again. 

And the weather looks similar for Sunday, will keep the chance of rain at 40%. And temperatures not changing much. Low might float back toward 70 and daytime High get closer to 85 again.

Monday the moisture might be a little more limited, but either way rain chance of 30-40% seems reasonable. The High should get back into the mid-80's. 

By Tuesday I'm definitely seeing a trend that makes me fairly confident in cutting the rain chance back to 30% as high pressure re-establishes enough in the region for sort of a standoff with this moisture. Plus the front looks like it will be lifting farther back to the North by this time. The High should be about mid-80's, Low upper 60's. 

Not seeing any reason to decrease the rain chances further on Wednesday though, holding them at 30%. High should be in the mid-80's, Low in the upper 60's. 

Then basically the same thing Thursday. The temperatures are going to get tricky. Here at days 6-7, we might edge back into upper 80's for Highs and near 70 for Lows. This is an unusual pattern for July. 

Then finally not this weekend but next weekend, Days 8-10, some model trends showing we'll likely return to just isolated rain and more seasonable temperatures. 

But it may be that Sunday before we get there. This is really unusual. 

As are some other things in the news lately. 

The tropics are quiet though, so we should enjoy that while it lasts. It probably will for at least this forecast period. I figure things will crank up again some time in August. 

We could see 2-4 inches of average rainfall totals from this weird weather pattern over the next week. Better chance of any localized flooding issues down at the Gulf Coast, and they'll have to keep an eye on the swells/rip currents in this pattern too.

Buy Me a Coffee

@thatweatherdude

Heat Advisory

 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

158 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

ALZ001>007-016-TNZ096-160300-

/O.NEW.KHUN.HT.Y.0006.240716T1500Z-240717T0100Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Cullman-Lincoln-

Including the cities of Russellville, Red Bay, Sheffield,

Decatur, Athens, Moulton, Cullman, Fayetteville, Florence, Muscle

Shoals, Town Creek, Tuscumbia, and Huntsville

158 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Cullman, Limestone, Madison, Morgan, Colbert,

  Franklin AL, Lauderdale, and Lawrence Counties. In Tennessee,

  Lincoln County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

JMS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Jackson MS

210 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-160400-

/O.NEW.KJAN.HT.Y.0018.240716T1500Z-240717T0100Z/

Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-

Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-

Including the cities of Starkville, De Kalb, Scooba,

Philadelphia, Mathiston, Macon, Pearl River, Brooksville,

Ackerman, Louisville, Carthage, West Point, Columbus, Kosciusko,

Weir, Winona, and Eupora

210 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 109 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana,

  central, southeast, southwest, west central and northwest

  Mississippi.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose

fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning

or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and

heat stroke.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and

Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in

shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat

should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an

emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

CR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MSZ002>006-009-013>017-022>024-160300-

/O.NEW.KMEG.HT.Y.0013.240716T1500Z-240717T0200Z/

Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Prentiss-Lafayette-

Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-

Including the cities of Oxford, Holly Springs, Bruce, Okolona,

Tupelo, Houston, Iuka, Calhoun City, Pontotoc, Aberdeen, New

Albany, Booneville, Ashland, Corinth, Ripley MS, Amory, and

Fulton

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 107 degrees expected.

* WHERE...A portion of North Mississippi.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

Schlessiger

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001-007-008-

010>012-020-TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089-160300-

/O.NEW.KMEG.EH.W.0006.240716T1500Z-240717T0200Z/

/O.CON.KMEG.HT.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-240716T0100Z/

Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St.

Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Tunica-Tate-

Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-Tallahatchie-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Dyer-

Gibson-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Shelby-Fayette-

Including the cities of Brownsville, Dresden, Piggott,

Collierville, Union City, Helena-West Helena, Martin, Wynne,

Tunica, Senatobia, Somerville, Memphis, Tiptonville, Corning,

Millington, Southaven, Bartlett, West Memphis, Caruthersville,

Charleston, Paragould, Forrest City, Oakland, Kennett, Jonesboro,

Clarksdale, Covington, Alamo, Blytheville, Olive Branch,

Humboldt, Batesville, Marianna, Dyersburg, Germantown, Milan,

Marks, Ripley TN, and Harrisburg

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 109 degrees.

  For the Excessive Heat Warning, dangerously hot conditions with

  heat index values up to 111 degrees expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi, Southeast

  Missouri, and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 8 PM CDT this evening. For the

  Excessive Heat Warning, from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during

  extreme heat and high humidity events.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

MSZ021-TNZ004-021-022-052>055-090>092-160300-

/O.NEW.KMEG.HT.Y.0013.240716T1500Z-240717T0200Z/

/O.CON.KMEG.HT.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-240716T0100Z/

Yalobusha-Henry-Carroll-Benton TN-Madison-Chester-Henderson-

Decatur-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-

Including the cities of Henderson, Paris, Water Valley, Jackson,

Huntingdon, Coffeeville, Bolivar, Lexington, Selmer, Camden,

Decaturville, Parsons, and Savannah

156 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the first Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 106

  degrees. For the second Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 109

  degrees expected.

* WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...For the first Heat Advisory, until 8 PM CDT this evening.

  For the second Heat Advisory, from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

117 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

ALZ011>015-022>025-034>036-161200-

/O.NEW.KBMX.HT.Y.0009.240716T1500Z-240717T0200Z/

Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-

Shelby-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-

Including the cities of Tuscaloosa, Double Springs, Birmingham,

Centreville, Columbiana, Jasper, Alabaster, Hamilton, Sulligent,

Carrollton, Fayette, Rockford, Vernon, Pelham, Hoover, and

Clanton

117 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected.

* WHERE...A portion of central Alabama.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and

pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any

circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When

possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or

evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat

stoke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible

and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and

Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in

shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat

should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an

emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

TNZ005>008-023>030-056>060-062-093-160400-

/O.NEW.KOHX.HT.Y.0004.240715T1700Z-240717T0100Z/

Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson-

Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-

Williamson-Maury-Rutherford-Wayne-

Including the cities of South Carthage, Lebanon, Centerville,

Gallatin, Lobelville, Dickson, Hohenwald, Waverly, Nashville,

Brentwood, New Johnsonville, La Vergne, Linden, Carthage,

Franklin, Smyrna, Ashland City, Mount Juliet, Tennessee Ridge,

Hendersonville, Gordonsville, Clarksville, Columbia,

Murfreesboro, Clifton, Hartsville, Erin, Goodlettsville, Dover,

McEwen, Springfield, Kingston Springs, and Waynesboro

1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Afternoon heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees are

  expected.

* WHERE...A portion of Middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat

  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of

the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

Rose

Some Rain to Break Up the Heat Midweek

FORECAST:

Monday (High 93, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday (High 92, Low 72): Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Thursday (High 87, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Friday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 89, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION:

Skies were partly to mostly sunny in Cullman today, and then we had a thunderstorm cool us off in the afternoon. The High was 93, and the Low was 68. 

We're going to continue in this pattern for a while, with mostly high pressure over the region the next few days. And there's going to be enough Gulf moisture to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms, pretty typical summer stuff. 

Should see a 20% chance of rain tomorrow, High about 92-93, Low near 70. 

Same thing Tuesday, High in lower 90's, Low of 70 or so, rain chances just that minimal summer standard of 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. 

Then rain chances increase Wednesday and Thursday as a front sags into the region. 

Looks like a 30% chance of rain Wednesday with a High in lower 90's still, Low in lower 70's. 

Then Thursday, bumping the rain chance up to 50% with enough coverage of clouds and rain to knock our High temperature down into the upper 80's. Low should be near 70. 

Then going into the weekend, the front stalls out. 

Going with a 40% chance of rain for Friday, a High again in the upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. Some guidance has been showing mid-or-lower-80's, but I think that's overdoing it. 

Saturday can bring rain chance back to 30%, High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. 

Then will hold the rain chance at 30% next Sunday. 

Some of the model guidance basically wants to give us a monsoon pattern this week into next weekend, and I just don't think it's going to happen. When's the last time we saw that in July? I don't care how "sick" the ECMWF is. I think the GFS has a more realistic scenario this go-round. And I'm forecasting something that looks realistic. Our widespread/heavy rain time looks like Wednesday night into Thursday. The rest of the time looks like more scattered summer rain and storms. Granted it's great to get some of that this week after the minor heat wave we've had lately. 

And if you care to look out 10 days, July 22nd through 24th look like the same unsettled summer pattern with rain chances only about 20-30% and Highs near 90, Lows near 70. 

And we could see a couple inches of rain over the next seven days, maybe amounts of three inches or greater, more likely to see that in Northeast Alabama. But summer rain is notorious for being randomly distributed around here. 

So our drought won't last long. And temperatures will be more seasonable, if anything milder than we can see a lot in July around here. The tropics are also quiet for now. They'll probably crank up again in August or September, but for now, we can enjoy the lull in the action. 

Speaking of action, yesterday brought news of the first assassination attempt in our country since what happened to Ronald Reagan in 1981. Plus Richard Simmons died. So did Dr. Ruth and Shannon Doherty. Plus some gunshots were foolishly fired in Cullman last night, I think in a fight over a woman, fortunately none of the bullets even grazed anybody. 

As for the national tragedy, hopefully more details will come to light over the next week or so. We all know it could have been worse, so I will simply thank the people who took care of business, what needed to be taken care of. And kept it from being worse than it ended up being. What happened was plenty bad enough. The situation strikes me as bizarre, and I'm not going to presume to know more than the FBI. I'd follow what they say more than speculating. You see a news story, they mention the FBI, I'd go and read what the Bureau actually says. Even they are still trying to figure out exactly what happened here. 

I thought Richard Simmons was a great guy. He helped a lot of people who were desperate. And he did not mind being the butt of many jokes for the greater good. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Shannen Doherty had the kind of physique that not even Simmons could whip nine out of ten women into. She was a beauty with a talent for acting. She lived the American dream but then got ravaged by cancer, which I've found is no respecter of persons. It devastates even the strongest people or the most obviously beautiful. 

The beauty in a life like Richard Simmons's is more subtle, but if anything, it may be more important. Not a lot of celebrities answered letters the way he did and cared about people. Frankly, good luck finding that level of caring at the nearest church or medical clinic, if you're trying to lose weight or tackling anything else really overwhelming. I just thought I'd put in a kind word for him since I have the chance. I wish there were more people in the world like he was, even if his presentation was as goofy as it gets. And with most of the "humor" going around these days being the equivalent of high-school put-downs, I find a goofball refreshing anyway. I've been watching a lot of old clips of a magician named David Williamson for that reason lately. 

No comment on Dr. Ruth. Except that I wonder if she and Hugh Hefner will meet in the afterlife, and how they'll get along. Ah nevermind, I watched too many of those Heather Tesch podcasts. A lot of them sounded like acid trips anyway. 

I had two family members in the hospital this week, and both recovered very well. But this past week made a great case for appreciating life day by day. Sometimes I get nostalgic for the days when life was generally agreed to have some value. And maybe yesterday threw some cold water in our faces as a reminder. 

Unfortunately word did not get around to the Salem cat, who nearly slit my wrist with his teeth and claws tonight, just playing rough. That's the thanks I get for an extra weekend treat I guess. Tis a mere flesh wound. 

Staying Hot Through Midweek, Then a Little Relief as Rain Chances Increase

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 97, Low 70): Mostly sunny. Hot. 

Monday (High 96, Low 72): Partly cloudy and staying hot. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 95, Low 73): Partly cloudy and staying hot. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 93, Low 73): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 88, Low 72): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday (High 88, Low 69): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 70): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 91, Low 77): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 92, Low 78): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 92, Low 78): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday through Weekend (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in upper 70's): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 97, Mínima 70): Mayormente soleado. Caliente.

Lunes (Máxima 96, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado y caluroso. Es posible que se produzcan chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

Martes (Máxima 95, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado y caluroso. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 93, Mínima 73): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 88, Mínima 72): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 91, Mínima 77): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Lunes (Máxima 92, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Martes (Máxima 92, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

De Miércoles a Fin de Semana (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, Mínimas en los 70 superiores): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES:

We have rapidly gone into a state of drought around here. 

DISCUSSION:

At 2 PM skies are mostly sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 93 degrees. The dewpoint-temperature is 64 degrees, making the relative humidity 39%. So the heat index is only 95 degrees. Winds are calm. Barometric pressure is 30.20 inches and falling slowly at the moment. The Low temperature this morning was 66. 

Skies are fair in Jasper with a temperature of 99 degrees. The dewpoint is 59, making the relative humidity 27%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.16 inches and steady. This morning's Low was 66. 

It is partly cloudy and 96 degrees in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 64, making the relative humidity 35%. Winds are variable at 7 mph. The pressure is 30.21 inches/1021.2 millibars and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 68. 

Huntsville is mostly cloudy and 96 degrees. The dewpoint is 65, making the relative humidity 36%. Winds are calm. The pressure is 30.17 inches/1020.6 millibars and falling slowly. This morning's Low temperature was 72. 

Then finally Nashville is mostly sunny and 97 degrees at this hour. The dewpoint is 62 degrees, making the relative humidity 32%. Winds are from the North at 8 mph with higher gusts up to 25 mph. The pressure is 30.19 inches/1021.4 millibars and falling slowly at the moment. But like a lot of sites, the pressure has been waffling up and down today, as it often does in the summer months. The Low temperature for the Music City was 73 this morning. 

We're seeing some rain showers to break up the heat a little, but they are staying pretty isolated. 

Got some thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and into Florida, also up in the Carolinas from that weak tropical wave that has moved inland from the Atlantic. Also got some thunderstorms up in the Ohio Valley. Of course we could see some thunder around here, but for the moment, the few radar echoes we have are just showing rain. And there isn't much of it. Satellite mainly showing fair-weather cumulus clouds over our region. When I looked out the window earlier, I think what I saw would qualify as cirrostratus though. 

High pressure is mainly in control of our weather, even though we've got some wind flow from the Southwest. So we have a tad of Gulf moisture at times, but for the most part, we are staying hot and dry at the moment. Today we'll probably get up to 96-97 degrees. If you see any rain, count yourself lucky, and it will probably be brief. Most of us won't. 

Tomorrow looks like another mostly sunny day with negliglible chances for even isolated rain providing any relief from the heat, High of about 96-97, Low near 70. 

It does look like we get enough moisture back in here Monday to support a typical 20% chance of summer rain/thunderstorms, really isolated. 

Especially if you look at the NAM, that pattern setting up again is more apparent. 

Still looking for a High of abotu 95-96, Low about 71-72. 

Then similar weather for Tuesday, High near 95, Low in lower 70's, about a 20% chance of isolated rain. 

It's a close call whether we'll see heat indices exceed 105 degrees tomorrow through Tuesday, which when that happens, they usually issue a heat advisory. For now they're holding off on it. 

Then on Wednesday a frontal boundary will be making its way toward our region. The GFS keeps us pretty dry, like if you took this to the bank, you'd expect another day of 20% rain chances at best. 

The ECMWF is showing widespread rain already moving in here on Wednesday. Which is probably the other extreme given the time of year and the pattern. Will increase rain chance to 30%. Will consider 40% depending on how the rest of the forecast looks after taking all this a day at a time. But the increase in clouds and rain chances should knock the High on Wednesday down into the lower 90's, Low staying in lower 70's. 

It does look like that front will really ramp up our rain chances Thursday, a 50% chance of rain looks reasonable. And we may see Highs only in the upper 80's, Lows near 70. 

Then on Friday taking into account the two main global models and the time of year, local climatology, rain chances should back off some and become more scattered, like 30-40% again, the High again in the upper 80's, the Low in upper 60's thanks to a lot of rain-cooling Thursday night. 

Then this guidance for Saturday from the GFS shows rain chances back up to 40-50%. And we have good agreement from the ECMWF. So I'll go with it. Rain chance stays at 40% or maybe 50% depending on reviewing the overall pattern in a minute here. High would be near 90 or upper 80's again, Low near 70. 

Then going into the following week, looks like rain chances gradually settle down to just 20-30% isolated rain/thunderstorms in the 8-10 day range, Highs near 90, Lows near 70. Not going to include that in the official forecast above, but if you are enough to read the discussion, there you go, for a peek beyond next Saturday. 

The tropics have become quiet for now. (Jinx?)

Our rainfall totals will average an inch or less over the next week. But we all know it's summer and it varies a lot more than these maps can pin down. At least it looks like later in the week we'll get back to more standard levels of summer heat and not the extra heat we've been having.