Slightly Higher Rain Chances Tomorrow and Thursday, Then Returning to More Seasonal Averages

 FORECAST:

Wednesday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Thursday (High 86, Low 72): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Friday (High 88, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 92, Low 71): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 92, Low 70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Wednesday (High 90, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Thursday (High 90, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Friday (High 90, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday through Tuesday (Highs in the lower 90’s, Lows in the mid-70’s): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

NOTES:

The Weatherbrains podcast talked last night about the recent tragedy of the flooding in Texas, where so many people (including many children, some people from Alabama) were killed.

For anyone headed to the beach, here are some tips on staying safe in rip currents.

For folks who live near the coast, now is a good time to review your hurricane safety plans, before the tropics get really active.

DISCUSSION:

Available on Substack with some other perks like an audio forecast/discussion.  

Pretty Seasonal Weather, Slightly Higher Rain Chances Later in the Week

FORECAST:

Monday (High 92, Low 69): Patchy fog possible in the morning, then mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 91, Low 70): Patchy fog possible in the morning, then partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Thursday (High 88, Low 71): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 87, Low 72): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Monday (High 90, Low 75): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 90, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday (High 90, Low 75): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Thursday through Sunday (Highs ~90, Lows ~75): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION:

Available on Substack.

Seasonal Summer Heat, Rain Staying Widely Scattered for the Most Part

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 92, Low 69): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.

Monday (High 93, Low 70): Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 87, Low 72): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 91, Low 74): Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Monday (High 90, Low 75): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 90, Low 75): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday through Saturday (Highs ~90, Lows ~75): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

NOTES:

This hurricane season is expected to be above average due to warm ocean temperatures.

Here are some rules for staying safe in rip currents.

NOAA has an animated series to teach kids about weather and climate.

Although it’s been a few weeks, I’d still encourage anyone to go and listen to the Weatherbrains interview with Max Velocity. Or better yet, follow his YouTube channel or website (linked under “Useful Resources” on the left-hand side of the desktop version of my website).

DISCUSSION:

Available on Substack along with a few other extra perks. 

Tropical Storm Chantal

 

Tropical Storm Warnings have now been posted for parts of the Carolina coastline . . . working on a forecast. But here are the relevant details from NHC in the meantime.

460

WTNT33 KNHC 052033

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025

500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA

THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W

ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 12 hours

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12

hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States

should monitor the progress of Chantal.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was

located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is

moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the

north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a

turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the

center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South

Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the

coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO

header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this

evening and overnight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy

rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm

total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches,

is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for

flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak

Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across

parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip

currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to

the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found

at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

398

WTNT43 KNHC 052033

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025

500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much

throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area

of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the

storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that

investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level

wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the

1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in

structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this

advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is

scheduled to investigate the system this evening.

The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to

decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to

be being entrained into the western part of the circulation.

Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal

reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday.

After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is

expected to open up into a trough by Monday.

Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster

toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The

track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north-

northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf

and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to

the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more

embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of

the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA

multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast.

Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds

and rainfall to the right of the landfall location.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash

flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas.

3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip

currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the

Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers

should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Brown

142

WTNT53 KNHC 052034

TDSAT3

WTNT53 KNHC 052034

TDSAT3

Tormenta Tropical Chantal Discusión Número 5

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL032025

500 PM EDT sábado 05 de julio de 2025

La presentación por satélite de Chantal no ha cambiado mucho a lo

largo del día con bandas convectivas y un área concentrada de

convección profunda localizada sobre el semicírculo este de la

tormenta. El avión de reconocimiento de la Reserva de la Fuerza

Aérea que investigó Chantal hasta el mediodía encontró un viento

máximo de 850 mb a nivel de vuelo de 51 kt que apoyó el aumento de

los vientos a 40 kt en la advertencia intermedia de las 1800 UTC.

Sin ningún cambio significativo en la estructura desde ese momento,

la intensidad permanece en 40 kt para esta advertencia. Otro avión

de reconocimiento de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea está programado

para investigar el sistema esta noche.

Se pronostica que la cizalladura moderada que ha estado afectando a

Chantal disminuya algo esta noche, sin embargo, el aire de nivel

medio más seco parece estar siendo arrastrado a la parte oeste de la

circulación. Por lo tanto, solo se predice un fortalecimiento ligero

antes de que Chantal alcance la costa de Carolina del Sur durante la

noche o temprano el domingo. Después de tocar tierra, debería

ocurrir un debilitamiento constante y se espera que el sistema se

abra en una vaguada para el lunes.

Corregimientos recientes muestran que Chantal ha comenzado a moverse

un poco más rápido hacia el norte con una estimación de movimiento

inicial de 360/6. La guía de la trayectoria sugiere que la tormenta

girará al norte-

hacia el noroeste entre un nivel medio a alto bajo sobre el Golfo

y una cresta de nivel medio estrecha sobre el Atlántico occidental.

Un giro a

se espera que el noreste después de que toque tierra a medida que

Chantal se vuelva más

incrustado dentro del flujo de nivel bajo a medio alrededor del lado

oeste de

la cresta. El pronóstico de la pista del CNH se encuentra cerca del

TVCA

consenso multi-modelo, que está cerca del pronóstico anterior del

NHC.

Se espera que Chantal permanezca asimétrico con sus vientos y lluvia

más fuertes a la derecha de la ubicación de tocar tierra.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de aviso

que comienza esta noche y continúa hasta el domingo por la mañana.

2. Fuertes lluvia a través de porciones de las Carolinas causarán

preocupaciones de inundaciones repentinas hasta el lunes,

especialmente en áreas urbanas.

3. Se espera que Chantal traiga oleaje y corrientes marinas que

amenazan la vida a lo largo de la costa desde el noreste de Florida

a los estados del Atlántico Medio durante el próximo día más o

menos. Los amantes de la playa deben prestar atención al consejo de

salvavidas y funcionarios locales.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 07/1800Z...DISIPADO

$$

Pronosticador Brown

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

291

WTCA43 KNHC 052034

TASAT3

WTCA43 KNHC 052034

TASAT3

BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Chantal Advertencia Número 5

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL032025

500 PM EDT sábado 05 de julio de 2025

...CHANTAL MOVIÉNDOSE MÁS CERCA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...

...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL QUE COMIENCEN EN EL

ÁREA DE AVISO ESTA NOCHE...

RESUMEN DE 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN INFORMA

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...31.9N 78.7W

ALREDEDOR DE 95 MI...150 KM SE DE CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

ALREDEDOR DE 165 MI...270 KM SSW DE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...N O 360 GRADOS A 7 MPH...11 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* South Santee River, SC a Surf City, NC

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Edisto Beach a South Santee River, SC

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso, en

este caso dentro de las próximas 12 horas

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de

tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia, en

este caso dentro de las próximas 12 horas.

Intereses en otro lugar a lo largo de la costa sureste de los

Estados Unidos deberían monitorear el progreso de Chantal.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, incluyendo

posibles vigilancias y avisos en el interior, por favor monitoree

los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico del Servicio

Nacional de Meteorología local.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical

Chantal se localizó cerca de la latitud 31.9 Norte, longitud 78.7

Oeste. Chantal se está moviendo hacia el norte cerca de 7 mph (11

km/h). Se espera que un movimiento hacia el norte-noroeste comience

esta noche, seguido de un giro al noreste para el domingo por la

noche. En la trayectoria pronosticada se espera que el centro de

Chantal se mueva a través de la costa de Carolina del Sur durante la

noche o temprano el domingo por la mañana.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 45 mph (75 km/h) con

ráfagas más altas. Se pronostica algún fortalecimiento ligero antes

de que Chantal alcance la costa. Se espera un debilitamiento rápido

después de que toque tierra.

Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 140 millas (220 km) principalmente al este del centro.

La presión central mínima estimada es 1006 mb (29.71 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para la Tormenta Tropical Chantal se pueden encontrar

en el

Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado AWIPS MIATCDAT3 y el

encabezado de la OMM WTNT43 KNHC.

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de

aviso que comienza esta noche y continúa hasta el domingo por la

mañana. Las condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles en el área

de vigilancia esta noche y durante la noche.

LLUVIA: Se espera que la Tormenta Tropical Chantal produzca fuertes

lluvias a través de porciones de las Carolinas hasta el lunes. Se

espera que la lluvia total de la tormenta de 2 a 4 pulgadas, con

cantidades locales de hasta 6 pulgadas.Esta lluvia resultará en un

riesgo elevado de inundaciones repentinas.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia e

inundaciones repentinas asociadas con Tormenta Tropical Chantal, por

favor vea el Gráfico de Tormenta de Lluvia Total del Servicio

Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

MAREJADA DE TORMENTA: La combinación de marejada de tormenta y marea

causará que áreas normalmente secas cerca de la costa se inunden por

aguas en aumento que se mueven hacia el interior desde la costa. El

agua podría alcanzar las siguientes alturas por encima del suelo en

algún lugar en las áreas indicadas si la marejada máxima ocurre en

el momento de la marea alta...

Edisto Beach, SC a Surf City, NC...1-2 pies

Para una representación completa de áreas en riesgo de inundación de

marejada ciclónica, por favor vea el Gráfico de Marejada Ciclónica

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge

TORNADOS: Tornados aislados son posibles esta noche y el domingo a

través de partes del este de Carolina del Sur y el este de Carolina

del Norte.

OLEAJE: Se espera que Chantal traiga oleaje y corrientes marinas que

amenazan la vida a porciones de la costa desde el noreste de Florida

a los estados del Atlántico Medio durante el próximo día más o

menos.

Una representación del riesgo de corrientes marinas para los Estados

Unidos se puede encontrar en:

hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 800 PM EDT. Próxima advertencia

completa a las 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Pronosticador Brown

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***