Thursday, July 11, 2024

July Heat Returns Shortly . . .

FORECAST:

Friday (High 94, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, hot in the afternoon. 

Saturday (High 96, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.

Sunday (High 97, Low 71): Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 96, Low 73): Partly to mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 97, Low 74): Partly cloudy. 

Wednesday (High 96, Low 75): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 94, Low 74): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

READING TEA LEAVES:

Friday July 19 (High 95, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday July 20 (High 93, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday July 21 (High 94, Low 74): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 92, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 93, Low 78): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 93, Low 79): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Next Week (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 94, Mínima 66): Mayormente soleado. Fresco por la mañana, caluroso por la tarde.

Sábado (Máxima 96, Mínima 69): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Caliente.

Domingo (Máxima 97, Mínima 71): Mayormente soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 96, Mínima 73): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 97, Mínima 74): Parcialmente nublado.

Miércoles (Máxima 96, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 94, Mínima 74): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Viernes 19 de Julio (Máxima 95, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado 20 de Julio (Máxima 93, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo 21 de Julio (Máxima 94, Mínima 74): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 76): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Sábado (Máxima 93, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Domingo (Máxima 93, Mínima 79): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

La Próxima Semana (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, Mínimas en los 70 superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

DISCUSSION:

At 1 PM skies are mostly sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 84 degrees. The dewpoint is 64 degrees, making the relative humidity 51%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.09 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 64. That's comfortable walking the dog weather for a lot of people. 

It is sunny and 91 in Jasper. The dewpoint is 59, making the relative humidity 34%. Winds are out of the Northwest at 8 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.06 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 63 degrees. 

Haleyville is mostly cloudy and 86 degrees. The dewpoint is 63, making the relative humidity 46%. Winds are variable at 3 mph. The pressure is 30.10 inches/1017.6 millibars and falling slowly. The Low there was also 63 this morning. 

It is partly cloudy and 90 degrees in Huntsville. The dewpoint is 63, making the relative humidity 41%. Winds are totally calm at the moment. Pressure is 30.06 inches/1016.9 millibars and falling slowly. This morning's Low was 69. Is that a good number? Yes, that is a very good number . . . 

It is partly cloudy and 89 degrees in Nashville. The dewpoint is 64, making the relative humidity 43%. Winds are Northwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.07 inches and falling slowly. Also 1017.6 millibars. And the Low in Nashville was also 69. Seems to be a popular number in the bigger cities of the Southeast these cool mornings. But who am I to judge . . . ? 





Seeing some cumulus clouds on satellite imagery and of course out the window. I find the window more reliable sometimes, but I can't see the whole Southeast that way. Thus am thankful for the satellites that provide these images from outer space. Although I suspect the flat-earthers are less thankful for such images that might threaten their worldview. Anyway we've got a front down South of Mobile and some strong high pressure over the Southeast region. We are not seeing any rain at the moment. 



And our next shot at the humidity and some rain chances coming back is this broad area of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic Ocean. It'll bring some rain chances to the Carolinas for sure going into this weekend, probably some heavier rains there. And it will have some impact on our local weather as the pattern gradually changes going into next week. Let's take it day by day even though some might think that's a waste of energy in the summertime. I guess I enjoy the nuances. 



Tomorrow it looks like a repeat of today, mostly sunny skies, temperature probably climbs a little higher, to about 93-94, the morning Low about 66-67, so still pretty cool in the morning, low humidity, but a bit toasty as the day goes on. 



Then on Saturday, looks like that rain doesn't make it in here then either, that low pressure area from the East, in the Carolinas. It stays out there. And the high pressure stays here. So again we stay mostly sunny. And the High will rebound to the mid-90's, about 95-97, the Low rebounding to about 70. 



And the high pressure holds firm on Sunday. I don't know why I said that low pressure area from the Atlantic would impact us. It isn't with any rain. I think I read someone else's forecast discussion and just accepted that on faith. Shame on me. Although that moisture could increase our dewpoints locally by Sunday, just the moisture could make things turn a little more muggy. But as far as any rain chances, the high pressure sure is winning this battle in all the model guidance. Only showing the GFS here, but in the NAM and ECMWF, it also keeps us dry here. So Sunday looks mostly sunny with a High in the mid-to-upper-90's and a Low of about 70 or so. And the humidity will start creeping back up. 



And even on Monday, I think we stay dry. Highs may get into the upper 90's though, so especially with humidity gradually coming back, these could be sweltering hot days. 




Tuesday also looks mostly dry and hot with enough humidity to add to the heat but probably not enough to bring even isolated rain, like a 10% chance of rain, which is close enough to nothing. High should be in mid/upper 90's and Low in lower 70's. 

Some time between Sunday and Tuesday I'm pretty sure the local National Weather Service offices will have to issue a heat advisory. They're already thinking about it, mentioning in forecast discussions. 



Wednesday it looks like finally we have the baseline chance for isolated rain/thunderstorms, 20% chance again. High should still be in mid-90's or maybe upper, Low in lower-to-mid-70's. 



Then for next Thursday, a frontal boundary gets close enough to the region that it makes sense to increase rain chances to 30%. So a 3-out-of-10 chance of any one spot getting a thunderstorm or shower. With these kinds of temperatures I wouldn't be surprised if some storms were hailers along with some strong wind gusts. Which happens every summer from time to time. These temperatures are definitely above average though. For Thursday expecting a High in the mid-90's instead of upper 90's, the Low in lower-to-mid-70's. 



Then looking into the land of tea leaves, which isn't as worthless in summer as it can often be in other seasons (like spring), I'd be inclined to trim the rain chance back to 20% for Friday as that front washes out and doesn't really do much. High in mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. 



Then for Saturday, enough moisture looks to be available again to bring the rain chance back to 30%. High in lower-to-mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. 



Then for Sunday, the rain chance goes back to only 20% with a High in mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. 

So it's going to turn hot again, also turn muggy, and not much rain for relief even in the extended. 

Don't shoot the messenger . . . just throw tomatoes for all my corn-pone humor. I like ketchup. 


Yesterday was kind of a trip nationally, where they had several reports of wind damage and even tornadoes up in New York, thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Which did not cause problems in Tennessee the other day but then really had a field day with New York, a state that rarely sees tornadoes. There was also some severe weather in Iowa and thereabouts along a cold front, but that's not all that exciting compared to tornadoes and major wind storms up around the Big Apple. 


As you might have figured out by now, rainfall amounts are going to stay pretty light for this forecast period. Over the next week, we'll see an average of a quarter to a half inch of rain. Some of us may not see any rain. You know how hit-or-miss it is when these oppressive hot/muggy summer patterns set up around here. And temperatures are too hot worldwide right now, including the ocean temperatures that produced Beryl. But I'm only in sales, not production I guess. 

Nuke a gay whale for Jesus, or somebody needs to update that old bumper sticker . . . nuke a non-binary dolphin for your Higher Power . . . or maybe for Zarathustra. Jesus don't get no respect these days, especially not from the Christian conservatives, but really not from the liberal Pronoun Police Squad either. So I guess I'll show him the minor respect of leaving him out of the updated joke. 

Nuke a non-binary shark 4 Donald CopperBlaingel!

After all, people always need new graven images, like a new ten commandments monument. And there have been way too many shark bites in the news lately . . . think somehow that nut who rescued a shark and threw it back to sea managed to avoid getting swallowed . . . or even bitten. 

Which is my way of saying stay cool, unless you prefer to bake . . . or finally kill off an undesirable relative (or pet) by leaving them in a hot car. Again, who am I to judge? 

But I'd prefer that ya' stay cool enough and don't actually cook anybody. And if you must cook somebody, at least have the common decency to eat 'em, preferably with ketchup. Although I think they used barbecue sauce in that old movie Fried Green Tomatoes. 

Hasta luego. 

Monday, July 8, 2024

Severe T-Storm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

ALC043-103-090015-

/O.NEW.KHUN.SV.W.0086.240708T2349Z-240709T0015Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

649 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024


The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  North central Cullman County in north central Alabama...

  Southeastern Morgan County in north central Alabama...


* Until 715 PM CDT.


* At 649 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Falkville, or

  9 miles southeast of Hartselle, moving northeast at 15 mph.


  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.


  SOURCE...Radar indicated.


  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.


* Locations impacted include...

  Cullman, Hartselle, Falkville, Vinemont, West Point, Eva, Lacon,

  and Cole Springs.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3421 8685 3424 8694 3448 8692 3440 8666

TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 203DEG 13KT 3433 8684


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH


$$


09

Some Rain and Storms Tomorrow, Then a Few Days of Drier Air and Cool Mornings

FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 90, Low 72): Mostly cloudy and breezy with numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible during the day - a few could become severe. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to become more widespread in the evening and night hours. 

Wednesday (High 85, Low 69): Mostly sunny and breezy. An isolated shower is possible in the morning. 

Thursday (High 89, Low 65): Sunny. Cool in the morning, not as hot in the afternoon. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 92, Low 67): Sunny. 

Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Mostly sunny. 

Sunday (High 94, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 91, Low 80): Thunderstorms. Dangerous rip currents. 

Wednesday (High 90, Low 77): Showers likely. Dangerous rip currents. 

Thursday (High 92, Low 76): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Weekend (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Martes (Máxima 90, Mínima 72): Mayormente nublado y ventoso, con numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas posibles durante el día; algunas podrían volverse severas. Es probable que los lluvias y tormentas eléctricas se generalicen en las horas de la tarde y la noche.

Miércoles (Máxima 85, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado y ventoso. Por la mañana es posible que se produzcan chubascos aislados.

Jueves (Máxima 89, Mínima 65): Soleado. Fresco por la mañana, no tan caluroso por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 67): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 95, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 94, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Lunes (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 80): Tormentas eléctricas. Peligrosas corrientes de resaca.

Miércoles (Máxima 90, Mínima 77): Lluvias probables. Peligrosas corrientes de resaca.

Jueves (Máxima 92, Mínima 76): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Fin de Semana (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

DISCUSSION:

Overall skies were partly to mostly sunny in Cullman today, but we had a few clouds increasing in the afternoon, and by the time I'm writing this at 6:42 PM we have a thunderstorm in the vicinity. The High was 95, and the Low was 70. Which is a bit toastier than the computer forecast models expected. So will take that into account for this forecast package. Mainly doing this forecast at the request of somebody I know who has to have surgery and is a little concerned about the hurricane remnants. But I guess a forecast a day is not a bad idea in this pattern anyway. 



We've got several showers and thunderstorms this evening. The main action is out in Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana, also some in East Texas, where the remnants of Hurricane Beryl are winding their way through. They've had some flash flooding issues and also a few tornadoes. Let's see how many have been confirmed today. 

Pause forecast, severe weather going on.

Okay, it is now 7:27 PM CDT. And that severe thunderstorm actually tore some siding off the house I'm currently staying in. We just got a big gust of wind, and a huge piece of siding tore off and started knocking against the window. That'll get a guy's attention . . . 

And then my weather radio actually went off (for the first time in a while for any warnings, nice to have it working again) for the Cullman/Morgan County warning just a couple minutes later. I met a new neighbor, who impulsively ripped the piece of siding the rest of the way off, thinking it was bothering me and that he was doing me a favor. I do appreciate the intentions, but he really didn't have to do that. 

The whole thing shook me up because last year I got hit with a summer storm that nearly started an electrical fire. There was a warning out on it ahead of time, but I missed it because the transmitter was down, and I'd fallen asleep, forgot to set weather radio to another channel. 

It shook the cats up a little too. But all is well except some of the siding got ripped off. And that's really nothing to sweat. 

So let's get on with the rest of the weather. 


Well this map has been updated since I was originally going to post it. I was going to notice how we had nine tornado reports out West from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. But now we have a report of wind damage near Falkville in Morgan County, where a tree and power line were reported down along West Lacon Road and Burney Road. And there were a few more trees down in that general area. Plus in Colbert County, at Littleville, a tree was reported down along Ligon Springs Road. 

And this just came in from South Vinemont in Cullman County, a tree was reported down along County Road 1386. 



And you can see our thunderstorms really well on satellite imagery. Out in Louisiana and Arkansas they are dealing with showers and thunderstorms with those tropical rain bands. Those can produce flash flooding and isolated tornadoes. 



Our stalled front is now along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Another front runs through the Plains and Midwest. And then we have the hurricane remnants that we've already mentioned. 




And it sure looks like this remnant Low is going to pass well to our North. 




The Storm Prediction Center keeps the risk for isolated tornadoes in Central and Northern parts of Tennessee mostly, although places like Jackson and Southwest TN also have to keep an eye on it. The higher probabilities are up in Kentucky and clipping states like Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. And even that's just a general 5% risk for isolated tornadoes. That's pretty standard with the remains of a tropical cyclone. 



So tomorrow looks like it will feature about a 50/50 shot of rain, mostly cloudy and breezy. Might as well say "likely" showers and thunderstorms in the evening going into the night hours. Look for a High near 90, Low tonight about 70 or so. We'll have to watch for any stronger storms reaching severe limits and doing minor wind damage, more than we had any concern for that today. But it looks like we'll be on the Southeast side of the remnant Low formerly known as Tropical Cyclone Beryl. 


The NAM shows a lot clearer position for that this go-round. 

And usually to get the isolated tornadoes you need to be more on the East/Northeast side of those spiral bands. So the risk for any severe weather in far Southern Tennessee into North Alabama is probably going to be from damaging straight-line winds. These things can be a close call sometimes. 



Thursday we get in a dry slot. Excuse me, this is Wednesday we're looking at. We could still see a stray shower in the morning, but overall a mostly sunny day, High only about 85, mid-80's, the Low near 70 or maybe dipping to about 69. It'll still be breezy. 



Sunny conditions again Thursday with high pressure firmly in place. The High will struggle to rebound even to 90 degrees, and we'll have a morning Low in the mid-60's. So that will be a relief for a lot of us. 



And it looks like we'll continue to enjoy that drier air on Friday. High should only get into the lower 90's and the morning Low in about the mid-to-upper-60's. So we've got some cool mornings on tap here. Mostly sunny skies Friday, little or no rain around. 



And the latest global model guidance keeps us dry again on Saturday even though we start to get a little more wind flow from the Gulf of Mexico. High in mid-90's, Low of about 70. 



Similar temperatures for Sunday but bringing back that minimal 20% rain chance. 



Then a 30% chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms makes sense for Monday, with a High in the lower-to-mid-90's and a Low in the lower 70's. 


Looks like our neighbors to the North and West get the heavy rains from the hurricane remnants. Around here it'll stay hit-or-miss with most of us getting amounts well under a half-inch, many of us probably seeing less than a quarter-inch of rain over the next seven days. But you know how summer goes. And especially with a tropical system nearby, even if we escape direct impacts from its rain bands. Would not be surprised to see somewhere get hit with some really heavy rain and then over in the next county, absolutely nothing, tomorrow. Then we get a dry spell most of Wednesday through probably Saturday. Then back to the typical summer pattern. 

Just on the chance anyone reading this gets a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning out of tomorrow/tomorrow night's weather, remember the basic idea: Get into a small central room (with no windows) on the lowest floor of a sturdy house or other strong building. You don't need to try to shelter in a mobile home during severe weather. 

Hopefully our storms around here will stay under severe limits, but after this evening and the tropical remnants being a little too close for comfort, I guess I'm just playing it safe and reminding people. Somebody in Tennessee could draw the short straw and actually get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night. The chance is pretty low, but I'd still respect it. 

And then enjoy the few days of a lot lower humidity. The rest of this month will probably be cooking much of the time. I don't think anybody expected this summer to be a mild one. 

July Heat Returns Shortly . . .

FORECAST: Friday (High 94, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, hot in the afternoon.  Saturday (High 96, Low 69): Partly to mostly s...