Saturday, October 5, 2024

Tropical Storm Milton - Expected to Affect Tampa Bay as Major Hurricane









Everyone in or near the track of this developing hurricane needs to be going over their safety plan. This is not looking good, especially for Tampa Bay. 

This is likely to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall. The waters are way too warm down there. And we're in the peak of the season. This thing is liable to fire up rapidly. 

5:55 PM Update - Here is a handy list of evacuation orders for Florida. This list may expand over the next couple days. 

This storm is not expected to be a problem for Gulf Shores or Panama City beyond the usual rip current hazard you have with any hurricane passing close by. The danger is for the Florida Peninsula, and that danger may turn out to be significant, combination of major hurricane winds and a lot of water. 

 000

WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA

TCPAT4


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   2...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024

400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024


Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards 

sections


...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF

LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA

NEXT WEEK...



SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W

ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO

ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,

the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the

progress of this system.


Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for

portions of Florida on Sunday.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was

located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is

moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow

east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A

slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by 

Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to 

remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, 

then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and 

Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by 

midweek.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could

become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and

eastern Gulf of Mexico.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)

from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO

header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals

up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida

Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will

bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with

minor to moderate river flooding.


The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across

portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.


SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast

of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected

to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by

early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Brown



000

WTNT44 KNHC 052046

TCDAT4


Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024

400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024


Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of

the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of

35 kt.  Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical

Storm Milton a few hours ago.  The scatterometer data showed that

the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the

area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure

has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity

remains 35 kt for this advisory.


Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial

motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt.  Milton is not expected to

move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to

east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward

over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin

to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it

moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the

southeastern United States.  This trough is expected to cause Milton

to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center

approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance

envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted

that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the

various dynamical models.  The updated official forecast is slightly

north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better

agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are

again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at

the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150

miles.


Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for

strengthening.  The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of

maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind

shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely

during the next few days.  The official intensity forecasts calls

for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major

hurricane by 72 hours.  The regional hurricane models continue to

be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton.  For now, the NHC

intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but

upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane

models continue their trends.  Regardless of the exact details of

the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple

life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast

of the Florida Peninsula next week.


Key Messages:

1.  Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves

eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or

near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the

Florida Peninsula mid week.


2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and

wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida

Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these

areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow

any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to

the forecast.


3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday

and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly

related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday

night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal

flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 23.0N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 23.0N  92.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 23.1N  91.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 60H  08/0600Z 23.8N  89.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 24.8N  87.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 27.7N  83.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  10/1800Z 30.4N  77.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


$$

Forecaster Brown


816 

WTNT54 KNHC 052049

TDSAT4



Tormenta Tropical Milton Discusión Número 2

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL142024

400 PM CDT sábado 05 de octubre de 2024


Los datos de scatterómetro alrededor del mediodía confirmaron que la

circulación de la depresión estaba bien definida, y también reveló

vientos máximos de 35 kt. Basado en esos datos, la depresión se

actualizó a Tormenta Tropical Milton hace unas horas. Los datos de

scatterómetro mostraron que el centro estaba incrustado dentro del

área de nubes frías, pero el área de vientos con fuerza de tormenta

tropical era pequeña. La estructura general no ha cambiado mucho

desde ese momento, y la intensidad inicial permanece de 35 kt para

esta advertencia.


Dado que el sistema todavía está en su etapa de desarrollo, el

movimiento inicial es un poco incierto 020/3 kt. No se espera que

Milton se mueva mucho hasta esta noche, pero debe comenzar a moverse

hacia el este a este-noreste el domingo a medida que una depresión

de onda corta cae hacia el sur sobre el noroeste del Golfo de

México. El lunes, Milton debe comenzar a rastrear un poco más rápido

hacia el este o este-noreste a medida que se mueve por delante de

otro valle de latitud media que se acerca al sureste de Estados

Unidos. Se espera que esta depresión cause que Milton acelere aún

más hacia el noreste para el martes por la noche con el centro se

acerca a la costa oeste de Florida. La envoltura general de guía de

la trayectoria ha empujado hacia el norte este ciclo y también debe

tenerse en cuenta que permanecen grandes diferencias de tiempo o a

lo largo de la trayectoria en los diversos modelos dinámicos. El

pronóstico oficial actualizado está ligeramente al norte de la

trayectoria anterior y es un poco más lento para estar en mejor

acuerdo con las últimas ayudas de consenso multimodelo. Se recuerda

de nuevo a los usuarios que no se enfoquen en la trayectoria o el

tiempo exacto del pronóstico en el rango más largo ya que el error

de pista promedio de 4 días del NHC es de aproximadamente 150

millas.


Milton está dentro de condiciones atmosféricas y oceánicas

favorables para el fortalecimiento. Los datos de scatterómetro

indicaron que el radio de máximo era alrededor de 20 n mi, y con las

condiciones de baja cizalladura vertical esperadas de viento, el

fortalecimiento de constante a rápido parece probable durante los

próximos días. Los pronósticos de intensidad oficiales requieren que

Milton se convierta en huracán en aproximadamente 36 horas, y un

huracán mayor para 72 horas. Los modelos de huracán regionales

continúan siendo bastante agresivos al intensificar Milton. Por

ahora, el pronóstico de intensidad del CNH está cerca de las ayudas

de consenso multimodelo, pero podrían requerirse ajustes al alza si

los modelos dinámicos de huracán continúan sus tendencias.

Independientemente de los detalles exactos del pronóstico de

intensidad, es probable que un huracán intenso con múltiples

peligros que amenazan la vida afecte la costa oeste de la Península

de Florida la próxima semana.


Mensajes Clave:

1. Se pronostica que Milton se intensificará rápidamente mientras se

mueve hacia el este a noreste a través del Golfo de México y estará

en o cerca de la fuerza de huracán mayor cuando alcance la costa

oeste de la Península de Florida a mediados de la semana.


2. Hay un riesgo creciente de impactos de marejada ciclónica y

viento que amenazan la vida para porciones de la costa oeste de la

Península de Florida a partir del martes o el miércoles. Los

residentes en estas áreas deben asegurarse de que tienen su plan de

huracanes en su lugar, siga cualquier consejo dado por los

funcionarios locales, y vuelva a verificar para obtener

actualizaciones del pronóstico.


3. Áreas de fuertes lluvias afectarán porciones de Florida el

domingo y el lunes bien por delante de Milton, con fuertes lluvias

más directamente relacionadas con el sistema se esperan más tarde el

martes hasta el miércoles por la noche.Esta lluvia trae el riesgo de

inundaciones repentinas, urbanas y áreas, junto con inundaciones

menores a moderadas del río.



POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS


INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

 48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

 60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

 96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


$$

Pronosticador Brown



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


588 

WTCA44 KNHC 052117

TASAT4



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Milton Advertencia Número 2...Corregido

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL142024

400 PM CDT sábado 05 de octubre de 2024


Referencias corregidas a una depresión en las secciones de discusión

y peligros


...PRONÓSTICO DE MILTON PARA FORTALECER Y TRAER EL RIESGO DE

IMPACTOS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA A PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE

FLORIDA LA PRÓXIMA SEMANA...



RESUMEN DE 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...22.7N 95.5W

ALREDEDOR 245 MI...395 KM N DE VERACRUZ MÉXICO

ALREDEDOR 385 MI...615 KM ONO DE PROGRESO MÉXICO

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NNE O 20 GRADOS A 3 MPH...6 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


Intereses en la península de Yucatán de México, la Península de

Florida, los Cayos de Florida y el noroeste de Bahamas deben

monitorear el progreso de este sistema.


Probablemente se requerirán vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada

Tormenta para porciones de Florida el domingo.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical

Milton se localizó cerca de la latitud 22.7 Norte, longitud 95.5

Oeste. Milton se está moviendo hacia el norte-noreste cerca de 3 mph

(6 km/h). Se espera que un movimiento lento hacia el este-noreste

comience esta noche. Se pronostica un movimiento ligeramente más

rápido hacia el este a este-noreste para el lunes y el martes. En la

trayectoria del pronóstico, se pronostica que Milton permanecerá

sobre el suroeste del Golfo de México hasta el domingo por la noche,

luego muévase a través del centro sur del Golfo de México el lunes y

el martes, y acérquese a la costa oeste de la Península de Florida

para mediados de semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento de constante a

rápido durante los próximos días. Se pronostica que Milton se

convertirá en un huracán el domingo por la noche, y podría

convertirse en un huracán mayor mientras se mueve a través del

centro y este del Golfo de México.


Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 35 millas (55 km) desde el centro.


La presión central mínima estimada es de 1006 mb (29.71 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para la Tormenta Tropical Milton se pueden encontrar

en el

Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el encabezado de

la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


Lluvia: Se esperan cantidades de lluvia de 5 a 8 pulgadas, con

totales localizados de hasta 12 pulgadas, a través de porciones de

la Península de Florida y los Cayos hasta el miércoles por la

noche.Esta lluvia traerá el riesgo de inundaciones repentinas,

urbanas y áreas, junto con inundaciones menores a moderadas del río.


El sistema también puede producir lluvia de 2 a 4 pulgadas a través

de porciones de la Península de Yucatán y el oeste de Cuba.


Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con la Tormenta Tropical Milton, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia

Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible

en hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.


OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por el sistema comenzarán a afectar la

costa del suroeste del Golfo de México hoy. Se espera que estas

marejadas se extiendan hacia el norte y hacia el este a lo largo de

gran parte de la Costa del Golfo para principios de la próxima

semana.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje

y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 PM CDT.


$$

Pronosticador Brown


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


Sunny, Cool Week Ahead Around Here/Potential Hurricane Aiming at Florida Peninsula

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning. 

Monday (High 80, Low 60): Mostly sunny. Breezy. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 50): Sunny. Cool.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 76, Low 49): Sunny.

Thursday (High 75, Low 48): Sunny.

Friday (High 76, Low 49): Sunny.

Saturday (High 77, Low 50): Sunny.

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Soleado. Posible niebla dispersa por la mañana.

Lunes (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado. Ventoso.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 50): Soleado. Fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 76, Mínima 49): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 75, Mínima 48): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 76, Mínima 49): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 77, Mínima 50): Soleado.

DISCUSSION:

At 8:43 AM, latest observations show sunny skies in Cullman, though we had some heavy fog that really restricted visibility in the last few hours. (It's that time of year.) The temperature is 68 degrees, and at this early hour, even though the fog has broken up, the dewpoint is the same, which makes the relative humidity 100%. Winds are calm, and when we've had them overnight, they were light from the Northeast. The barometric pressure is 30.19 inches and rising slowly. Visibility is back to 10 miles, but around 7 AM it was down to a quarter-mile. 

It is still foggy in Jasper, restricting the visibility down to 4 miles there. The temperature is 68. The dewpoint is 66.2, or 66 if you don't feel like nitpicking and would rather round the number, making for a relative humidity 94%. Winds are calm. Pressure is 30.18 inches and steady.

Skies are fair in Haleyville, most of the haze and fog gone by now, with a temperature of 64.9 degrees, but I'm gonna' go ahead and call it 65. Ditto dewpoint, 100% relative humidity. No wind, so I guess nobody had baked beans in Haleyville last night. Pressure is 30.20 inches/1021. millibars and rising. And God bless these folks in Haleyville for not only being the home of the 911 system, but getting with the times and showing their pressure in millibars! The visibility there is up to 9 miles again. 

It is fair and 66 in Fort Payne. Foggy and 68 in Decatur - visibility of 6 miles. Sunny and 70 in Huntsville. Very foggy in Muscle Shoals, with visibility down to 0.25 mile, temperature of 67 degrees. Tupelo is fair and 67 but visibility still only at 7 miles. Good to be careful driving these mornings. Fair and 69 in Memphis. Fair skies and 65 degrees in Nashville. 






We are in a quiet weather pattern dominated by high pressure. Things are pretty seasonal, although I wouldn't mind if Mother Nature turned the thermostat down a little more, a little sooner than we've had so far. So let's see what it's going to do. 

Today will stay sunny with a High near 85 or 86. Simple enough. 



Tomorrow looks about the same, sunny with a High near 85. Humidity levels will be low, and the Low temperature should be about 61 or 62. Could see some patchy fog again in the morning. We have that a lot this time of year. 



Even drier air on the way Monday. 


A dry cold front is actually pushing through the region then. We'll see a High of only about 80, Low near 60. Might see a few clouds, but not many, and no rain expected at all . . . a good northerly breeze at times. 



Another factor that will keep us dry is being on the North/Northwest side of this tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS suggests it could strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall, which will probably be along the Florida Peninsula somewhere. Anyway this is Tuesday, and the GFS has it approaching land but still churning over the waters at that point. For a while, this system looked like it was going to be nothing to worry about after all. But now the signals are increasing that it will probably at least be a tropical depression or storm, and could very well be a hurricane in a few days. 

Around here, we get a taste of real Fall weather, with a High in the mid-70's and a Low near 50. Some places will likely see upper 40's Tuesday morning. 



Ah well, resuming this after some neighborhood drama involving an air conditioner konking out. It is now 10:21 AM. 

And it sure looks like the GFS wants to bring the tropical storm or hurricane into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. And this particular run makes it look like a close call for the Florida Bend, which of course just had a major hurricane recently. Let's not get worked up about one model solution though. Overall the guidance has been showing this system ending up in the Peninsula, regardless of how much it strengthens between now and then. We'll look at that in just a bit. 

Around here it looks like another sunny day with a High in the mid-70's and a Low around 50 if not in the upper 40's. So our weather looks great, I'm just keeping in mind our neighbors in Florida. 


The ECMWF shows landfall definitely well down on the Florida Peninsula, this graphic is valid at 7 AM Wednesday. And the European model does tend to be reliable at this time range, especially for hurricanes or tropical storms. 

But we have to factor in the tropical models too before really making a call. Will get to the tropics more after finishing the main forecast discussion for around here. 



And it may be a waste of time taking this day by day. Basically the same for Thursday, sunny skies around here, High in mid-70's, Low in the upper 40's or near 50. 



Staying under the high pressure ridge Friday, not much variation in the weather from day to day. 




And here we are Saturday. This weather pattern locally is even more boring than summer time. But I'll take the temperatures personally. The guy whose air conditioner went out today probably welcomes this even more. 

Now let's look at the tropics. 


The feature everyone is watching is this broad area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It came out of the Caribbean Sea. By some time tomorrow, this is expected to be at least to tropical depression strength. 

And you know what . . . because of that air conditioner drama that I let myself get sort of mixed up in, before I've finished this post, we already have Tropical Depression 14. So I will analyze it below right after I knock these other two hurricanes out of the way. 



Hurricane Kirk currently has sustained winds of 120 miles per hour. It is aiming for Northern Europe next week, but the good news is, it is expected to be down to tropical storm strength by then. 



Hurricane Leslie is moving Northwest with winds sustained at 80 mph. And it is actually going to move over some of the waters that were cooled by Hurricane Kirk recently having traversed them. So it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this coming week. If I was in Bermuda, I'd still keep an eye on this thing in case it survives that long or if it were to strengthen again later as it moves in that general direction. 




All right, so now we have Tropical Depression 14, soon to be Hurricane Milton. It is moving North/Northeast at the moment. After it develops a good inner core over these very warm waters with low levels of vertical wind shear, rapid strengthening is possible. Hate to say it, but the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula is fairly likely to be dealing with a hurricane by the middle of this coming week, and it may even be a major hurricane. 

Regardless of how the winds play out with this hurricane, if I was along the Florida Peninsula, my concern would be with flooding potential and storm surge. Certainly if you were to get an evacuation order later on, I would follow it, considering what we've just seen with Hurricane Helene. Why tempt fate . . . 

A Hurricane Warning has already been issued for some of the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and I think this storm may bring significant impacts to Florida by early Wednesday, perhaps as soon as late Tuesday. And it is going to be a close call for the Big Bend of Florida. They are on the northern edge of the general expected track of this thing. More likely it'll be an issue for the Peninsula, further South, but it is a close call. And of course, even getting a few spiral bands from this hurricane would not be particularly welcome for those parts of Florida still trying to get back to normal from the impacts of Hurricane Helene. 

So let's look at where the tropical models take this thing. 








All right, I think it's pretty safe to say this will be more of an issue for down on the Florida Peninsula, between these tropical model solutions and what we saw earlier from the ECMWF. The Florida Bend may still feel some impacts, but I think the core of this storm will stay South of there. If I had to bet on where this will end up, I'd say the Tampa Bay area. But it's several days from landfall. You have to check the latest forecast every day for things like this. Minor details can make a big difference in what ends up happening. 



Most of the models have this as a strong "Category 2" hurricane by the time of landfall. To technically be a major hurricane, it has to be "Category 3" or higher. Hurricane Helene was either a Cat. 3 or 4 at the time of landfall, but I've honestly forgotten, since the windspeeds were not the main issue with that storm. The flooding ended up being far worse, when it moved inland into North Carolina and East Tennessee. Things are horrible up that way still from that storm's inland flood impacts. It was one of those rare times a worst-case scenario played out. 

Let's try to keep a cool head about this hurricane, which will be called Hurricane Milton. As of right now, it is still a tropical depression. And while a few models ramp it up to major hurricane status, most of them have it capped off at Category 2 status. So let's review what that means. Wind speeds would be between about 96-110 miles per hour, which is between 83-95 knots. Suppose that happens, that is still a dangerous-enough hurricane. The description of a Category 2 goes like this:

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

So I wouldn't split hair about whether this ends up being a "major" hurricane or not. It is going to be dangerous for at least the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula. Even if people are able to shelter in place, they need to take this one seriously. And as I said, if given an evacuation order, even if it's optional, I believe I would with this one. I just don't have a great feeling about it. 


The official NHC track does not include any hurricane watches for Florida yet, and I think they usually wait until 48 hours prior to expected time of landfall to issue those, or hurricane warnings. But it clearly shows that this is expected to become a hurricane within the next couple days and maintain hurricane strength as it moves into the Florida Peninsula. There is a chance it could track further Northward and affect more of the Big Bend of Florida, but in my opinion, that chance is low. They are within the cone of uncertainty though, and we should all respect that. If you know anybody down there who might not have full access to the latest weather, might want to let them know about this several days in advance. Since it is probably going South of there, but it's close enough that it's worth watching. Plus, especially if it does end up being a stronger hurricane, the impacts are definitely not limited to the eyewall. The spiral bands can produce damaging winds, heavy rain/potential flooding, and isolated tornadoes. 

But my main concern with this is for flooding and storm surge along the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula. If I was along or near Tampa Bay, I would be getting ready to put my hurricane safety plan into place. And just watch this thing carefully. It's really only 3-4 days off from the most likely time of landfall. So we may see hurricane watches or warnings as early as some time tomorrow, for parts of Florida, I mean. 


We do not expect any rain up in North Alabama for the next week. Obviously this hurricane will dump heavy rain along its path, and the Florida Peninsula will have to look out for any flooding issues. Remains to be seen whether this will be a major hurricane in terms of wind, but I think the flooding may be more of a hazard with this one. 

Hats off to James Spann for this wonderful essay about how difficult it is to share accurate information in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, because of political fanaticism and general insanity. The latest episode of his podcast, Weatherbrains, also talked about the hurricane in depth. I haven't finished the episode yet, but it's a good one. 


And I think I'll limit my two cents about relief efforts to referring people to this post by the Morgan County Emergency Management Agency. That e-mail address or phone number will get you good information on how to donate responsibly or otherwise help out. In their better moments, even the warring political figures agree that everybody has to work together in a situation like what has happened from this last hurricane, especially along the mountains of East Tennessee and North Carolina where the worst flooding happened. 

SKYWARN classes are available from the Birmingham and Nashville offices. The Huntsville office even has a couple classes coming up specifically for the deaf and hard-of-hearing. And that's certainly important. 

That's about all.


After I actually watched that video I linked to from Georgia, I realized it wasn't as much about brotherly love and unity as I made it sound. But let's face it, that's as good as it's going to get any time soon. 

Hurricane Warning (Gulf Waters)

 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

1142 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024


Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico


Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average

height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be

more than twice the significant wave height.


GMZ045-060345-

W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 91W and 94W-

1142 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024


...HURRICANE WARNING...


.TODAY...SE to S winds 25 to 30 kt S of 24N, and E 10 to 15 kt N

of 24N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and isolated

thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 24N, S winds

20 to 25 kt, becoming SE to S 30 to 35 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft,

building to 10 to 14 f t late. N of of 2N, NE to E winds 15 to 20

kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

.SUN...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S winds 40 to 50 kt S

of 24N, and NE to E 20 to 25 kt N of 24N. Seas 12 to 19 ft S of

24N, and 7 to 11 ft N of 24N. Numerous squalls and

thunderstorms.

.SUN NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, E to

SE winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming NE 50 to 60 kt late. Seas 20 to 26

ft. N of 24N, NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Numerous

showers and scattered thunderstorms.

.MON...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 24N, N winds 60 to

75 kt. Seas 27 to 32 ft. N of 24N, NE winds 25 to 30 kt,

increasing to 35 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft,

building to 10 to 16 ft. Numerous showers and scattered

thunderstorms.

.MON NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. Numerous showers and

scattered thunderstorms.

.TUE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft in NE to E

swell.

.WED...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in NE to E swell.


$$

Tropical Depression 14




 000

WTNT34 KNHC 051458

TCPAT4


BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024

1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING 

IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...



SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W

ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO

ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, 

the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the 

progress of this system. 


Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for 

portions of Florida on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 

Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. 

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 

km/h).  A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is 

expected during the next day or so.  A faster east-northeastward to 

northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday.  On the 

forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the 

southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across 

the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach 

the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. 


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The 

depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a 

hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major 

hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of 

Mexico. 


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the 

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO 

header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at 

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across 

portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.


Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday 

and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall 

more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday 

through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, 

and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 

flooding.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 

Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather 

Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.


SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast 

of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected 

to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by 

early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 

local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Brown



000

WTNT44 KNHC 051459

TCDAT4


Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024

1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024


Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the 

circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the 

southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep 

convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the 

circulation with some increase in banding also noted.  Based on the 

recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on 

Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The initial intensity is set at 30 

kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data.  Another ASCAT pass 

is expected over the system later this morning. 


The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The 

system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward 

during the next day or so.  After that time, a trough moving 

southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause 

the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a 

slightly faster forward speed.  By Tuesday the cyclone is expected 

to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and 

this track will bring the system across the west coast of the 

Florida Peninsula by midweek.  The track guidance is in good 

agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in 

the forward speed.  The NHC track lies near the various consensus 

aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and 

ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users 

are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at 

the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 

miles.


The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical 

wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.  These conditions are 

expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next 

few days.  The intensification is likely to be slower during the 

next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but 

after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated.  The 

global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves 

across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional 

hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during 

that time.  The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of 

rapid intensification after 36 h.  The official forecast shows 

the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and 

eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This forecast is near the intensity 

consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies 

a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the 

exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with 

multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast 

of the Florida Peninsula next week.


Key Messages:

1.  The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves 

eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or 

near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the 

Florida Peninsula mid week. 


2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and 

wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida 

Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these 

areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow 

any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to 

the forecast. 


3.  Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday 

and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall 

more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday 

through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, 

and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 

flooding.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  05/1500Z 22.1N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 22.5N  94.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 22.9N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 22.8N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 22.9N  91.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 60H  08/0000Z 23.4N  89.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 24.3N  87.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z 27.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  10/1200Z 29.9N  78.3W   65 KT  75 MPH


$$

Forecaster Brown



439 

WTNT54 KNHC 051500

TDSAT4



Depresión Tropical Catorce Discusión Número 1

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL142024

1000 AM CDT sábado 05 de octubre de 2024


Las imágenes de satélite de un minuto de la mañana temprano por la

mañana muestran que la circulación associada con el área de baja

presión sobre el suroeste del Golfo de México se ha vuelto mejor

definida. La convección profunda ha sido persistente sobre la

porción noroeste de la circulación con algún aumento en las bandas.

Basado en el reciente aumento de la organización, se están iniciando

advertencias sobre la Depresión Tropical Catorce. La intensidad

inicial se establece en 30 kt que está respaldada por los datos

ASCAT durante la noche. Se espera otro paso de ASCAT sobre el

sistema más tarde esta mañana.


La depresión se está moviendo hacia el norte-noreste o 025/3 kt. Se

pronostica que el sistema se moverá hacia el noreste o hacia el

este-noreste durante el próximo día más o menos. Después de ese

tiempo, se espera que una depresión que se mueve hacia el sur sobre

el noroeste del Golfo de México cause que el sistema gire hacia el

este-noreste a una velocidad de avance ligeramente más rápida. Para

el martes se espera que el ciclón se mueva hacia el noreste a una

velocidad de avance cada vez más rápida y esta trayectoria traerá el

sistema a través de la costa oeste de la Península de Florida para

mediados de semana. La guía de la trayectoria está de buen acuerdo

en este escenario general, pero hay diferencias en la velocidad de

avance. La trayectoria del CNH se encuentra cerca de las diversas

ayudas de consenso, pero es ligeramente más rápida ya que los

modelos globales de GFS y ECMWF típicamente confiables están en el

lado más rápido de la guía. Se recuerda a los usuarios que no se

enfoquen en la trayectoria o el tiempo exacto del pronóstico en el

rango más largo ya que el error de pista promedio de 4 días del NHC

es de aproximadamente 150 millas.


La depresión está dentro de un ambiente favorable de baja

cizalladura vertical del viento y temperaturas cálidas de la

superficie del mar. Se espera que estas condiciones permitan un

fortalecimiento de constante a rápido durante los próximos días. Es

probable que la intensificación sea más lenta durante las próximas

12 a 24 horas hasta que un núcleo interno pueda establecerse, pero

después de ese tiempo se anticipa una tasa de fortalecimiento más

rápida. Los modelos globales predijeron una profundización

significativa cuando el sistema se mueve a través del centro y este

del Golfo de México y los modelos de huracán regionales muestran el

potencial de fortalecimiento rápido durante ese tiempo. El

pronóstico del CNH sigue el ejemplo y pide un período de

intensificación rápida después de 36 h. El pronóstico oficial

muestra que el sistema se acerca a la fuerza de huracán mayor sobre

el centro y este del Golfo de México. Este pronóstico está cerca de

las ayudas de consenso de intensidad pero puede ser necesario algún

ajuste al alza, ya que se encuentra un poco por debajo de los

modelos de huracán regionales. Independientemente de los detalles

exactos del pronóstico de intensidad, es probable que un huracán

intenso con múltiples peligros que amenazan la vida afecte la costa

oeste de la Península de Florida la próxima semana.


Mensajes Clave:

1. Se pronostica que la depresión se intensificará rápidamente

mientras se mueve hacia el este a noreste a través del Golfo de

México y estará en o cerca de la fuerza de huracán mayor cuando

alcance la costa oeste de la Península de Florida a mediados de la

semana.


2. Hay un riesgo creciente de impactos de marejada ciclónica y

viento que amenazan la vida para porciones de la costa oeste de la

Península de Florida a partir del martes o el miércoles. Los

residentes en estas áreas deben asegurarse de que tienen su plan de

huracanes en su lugar, siga cualquier consejo dado por los

funcionarios locales, y vuelva a verificar para obtener

actualizaciones del pronóstico.


3. Las áreas de fuertes lluvias afectarán porciones de Florida el

domingo y el lunes bien por delante del sistema tropical, con

fuertes lluvias más directamente relacionadas con el sistema se

esperan para el martes más tarde hasta el miércoles.Esta lluvia trae

el riesgo de inundaciones repentinas, urbanas y áreas, junto con

inundaciones menores a moderadas aisladas del río.



POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS


INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

 12H 06/00Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

 36H 07/00Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

 60H 08/00Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH


$$

Pronosticador Brown



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***


673 

WTCA44 KNHC 051459

TASAT4



BOLETÍN

Depresión Tropical Catorce Advertencia Número 1

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL142024

1000 AM CDT sábado 05 de octubre de 2024


...SE FORMA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL EN EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MÉXICO...

...PRONÓSTICO DE FORTALECER Y TRAER EL RIESGO DE IMPACTOS QUE

AMENAZAN LA VIDA A PORCIONES DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA LA PRÓXIMA

SEMANA...



RESUMEN DE 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...22.1N 95.1W

ALREDEDOR 210 MI...340 KM NNE DE VERACRUZ MÉXICO

ALREDEDOR 350 MI...565 KM O DE PROGRESO MÉXICO

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NNE O 25 GRADOS A 3 MPH...6 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


Intereses en la península de Yucatán de México, la Península de

Florida, los Cayos de Florida y el noroeste de Bahamas deben

monitorear el progreso de este sistema.


Probablemente se requerirán vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada

Tormenta para porciones de Florida el domingo.


DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical

Catorce se localizó cerca de la latitud 22.1 Norte, longitud 95.1

Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el norte-noreste cerca de

3 mph (6 km/h). Se espera un movimiento lento hacia el noreste o

hacia el este-noreste durante el próximo día más o menos. Se

pronostica un movimiento más rápido hacia el este-noreste a noreste

para el lunes y el martes. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se

pronostica que la depresión permanecerá sobre el suroeste del Golfo

de México hasta el domingo por la noche, luego se mueva a través del

centro sur del Golfo de México el lunes y el martes, y acérquese a

la costa oeste de la Península de Florida para mediados de semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento rápido durante

los próximos días. Se pronostica que la depresión se convertirá en

una tormenta tropical más tarde hoy y un huracán para el lunes

temprano. El sistema podría convertirse en un huracán mayor mientras

se mueve a través del centro y este del Golfo de México.


La presión central mínima estimada es de 1007 mb (29.74 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para la Depresión Tropical Catorce se pueden

encontrar en el

Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el encabezado de

la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml


Lluvia: El sistema puede producir lluvia de 2 a 4 pulgadas a través

de porciones de la Península de Yucatán y el oeste de Cuba.


Las áreas de fuertes lluvias también afectarán porciones de Florida

el domingo y el lunes bien por delante del sistema tropical, con

fuertes lluvias más directamente relacionadas con el sistema se

esperan para el martes más tarde hasta el miércoles.Esta lluvia trae

el riesgo de inundaciones repentinas, urbanas y áreas, junto con

inundaciones menores a moderadas aisladas del río.


Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con la Depresión Tropical Catorce, por favor vea el Gráfico de

Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,

disponible en hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.


OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por el sistema comenzarán a afectar la

costa del suroeste del Golfo de México hoy. Se espera que estas

marejadas se extiendan hacia el norte y hacia el este a lo largo de

gran parte de la Costa del Golfo para principios de la próxima

semana.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje

y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 PM CDT.


$$

Pronosticador Brown



*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Tropical Storm Milton - Expected to Affect Tampa Bay as Major Hurricane

Everyone in or near the track of this developing hurricane needs to be going over their safety plan . This is not looking good, especially f...