Friday, March 1, 2024

Mild with Some Sunshine Peeking Out This Weekend, Unsettled Next Week

FORECAST:

Saturday (High 66, Low 46): Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. 

Sunday (High 73, Low 50): Partly to mostly cloudy. Warmer. 

Monday (High 72, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with rain chances lasting into the night. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Tuesday (High 70, Low 60): Rain likely - thunderstorms possible. 

Wednesday (High 71, Low 56): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 72, Low 54): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 69, Low 56): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Sábado (Máxima 66, Mínima 46): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Leve.

Domingo (Máxima 73, Mínima 50): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Más cálido.

Lunes (Máxima 72, Mínima 58): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias y tormentas eléctricas muy dispersas, y las posibilidades de lluvia se prolongarán a través de la noche.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 60): Probabilidad de lluvia - posible tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 71, Mínima 56): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 72, Mínima 54): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 70, Mínima 55): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 56): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

A Cold Snap For Now, Then Warming Up Again with Unsettled Pattern

FORECAST:

Tonight (Low 29): Mostly cloudy. Cold and breezy.

Tomorrow (High 53): Partly sunny. Cold and breezy.

Friday (High 52, Low 40): Showers likely. Staying cold and breezy.

Saturday (High 65, Low 48): Partly cloudy. An isolated shower is still possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 72, Low 51): Partly cloudy. 

Monday (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 69, Low 57): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 70, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Quick Forecast Update

So we had a lot of clouds around today and windy conditions. We are under a Wind Advisory. Which basically means things could blow off your porch. 

We actually had some showers today, especially this morning, but mainly variable levels of cloudiness and strong wind gusts. The High in Cullman was 72 with a morning Low of 59. 

The reason I'm posting another update is that I didn't feel the formal forecast format worked too well that I posted this morning. The timing of the front keeps looking quicker tomorrow too. So here, not going to go into a lot of technical details, but going to give you a less formal, plain-language version of what to expect. We're not even going to worry about the severe weather threat going on up in the Ohio Valley, because they have their own meteorologists up that way or just guys like me who pass along weather information without having a degree. 

Tonight is going to be cloudy and windy, a Low in the lower 60's, probably not much in the way of even light rain beyond what we've had so far today. 

Tomorrow is looking like just some rain in the morning, and the high wind gusts continuing, the air looking so stable that we're really not even worried about regular thunderstorms so much anymore, just rain, wind, and then . . . we'll probably make it up to the mid/upper 60's still, but it will be in the morning. 

It is now looking like our temperature shift will come mid-to-late morning. So this is not a day it makes sense to post a High/Low and then maybe put a note trying to explain it. The temperature is likely to fall to the 40's before we even get to the Noon hour. And it will hover there as the rain slowly tapers off in the afternoon. 

By daybreak on Thursday, we should be back down around 30 degrees. Will still have a North/Northeast breeze making it feel even colder. During the day Thursday, we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies, staying breezy, but warming to about 53-54 degrees for the afternoon High. 

Then the rain comes back Friday, showers are likely, just a cold rain, High in about the mid-50's and the morning's Low back up around 40. 

Then Saturday we should make it up to the upper 60's with a lot of clouds hanging around but a mix of sunshine as well. Should start the day in the upper 40's. The chance of any one spot getting a shower on Saturday is only about 3 out of 10, or 30%. So if you have weekend plans outside, I would not cancel them, just have a way to get out of the rain if you need to. 

Basically the same for Sunday as far as rain chances except they are even lower, 20%, which is more like a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. So these weekend rain chances after Friday are only about what you'd see on a typical summer day. So yes, there are rain chances, but overall no big deal, pretty comfortable temperatures too, should start Sunday in the lower 50's and warm to about 70 degrees in the afternoon. 

Then Monday and Monday night, we do have another front coming at us. Based on current trends, the threat for any stronger storms is looking very low. But rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday into Monday night. The High should be in the lower 70's, Low in mid-50's, maybe upper-50's if it gets a little more muggy. 

And then the best bet for Tuesday, given that the computer models are wishy-washy on the timing, as is often the case a week in advance, is that rain is still likely, maybe some thunderstorms still in the mix, the High back down in about the mid-60's, the overnight Low between Monday and Tuesday somewhere in the 50's. 

So there ya' go. Tomorrow looks cold and rainy and windy, if you just wanna' keep it simple. The cold may arrive as early as mid-morning, where previously, I was thinking it would get here in the afternoon. This front is moving fast. Might be good to backtrack and see which computer model was most consistent in showing this setup with the front just racing through here instead of the stormier looks that turned out not to verify at all. 

Active Weather Pattern

FORECAST:

Today (High 75): Isolated showers possible, mainly this morning. Cloudy, warm, and windy. 

Wednesday (High 69, Low 61): Rainy and windy. Temperatures dropping rapidly behind the cold front.

Thursday (High 53, Low 30): Partly to mostly cloudy and turning cold again. Still somewhat breezy, especially in the morning.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 56, Low 40): Showers likely.

Saturday (High 67, Low 49): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 72, Low 55): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Monday (High 70, Low 60): Rain and thunderstorms likely. 

Wind Advisory


 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

221 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-272200-

/O.NEW.KHUN.WI.Y.0005.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-

Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-

Including the cities of Boaz, Albertville, Lynchburg, Florence,

Muscle Shoals, Fort Payne, Estill Springs, Moulton, Fayetteville,

Decherd, Rainsville, Guntersville, Russellville, Red Bay, Arab,

Decatur, Sewanee, Sheffield, Huntsville, Tuscumbia, Cullman,

Cowan, Town Creek, Scottsboro, Athens, and Winchester

221 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest

  Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$


HC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Morristown TN

356 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024


TNZ012-013-035-036-081-082-098-272100-

/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0008.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Scott TN-Campbell-Morgan-Anderson-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Marion-

Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida,

Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle,

La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville,

Royal Blue, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Clinton, Cagle,

Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak, Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine,

Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton, South Pittsburg,

Haletown (Guild), Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell,

Powells Crossroads, and Monteagle

356 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024 /256 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS

AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/

  Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Nashville TN

238 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-272100-

/O.CON.KOHX.WI.Y.0003.240227T1800Z-240228T1200Z/

Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-

Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-

Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-

Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-

Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-

Including the cities of Murfreesboro, Linden, Smithville,

Altamont, Jamestown, Springfield, Goodlettsville, Centerville,

Cookeville, Tullahoma, La Vergne, Gallatin, Byrdstown,

Lobelville, Celina, Livingston, Allardt, Sparta, Tennessee Ridge,

New Johnsonville, Nashville, Smyrna, Hartsville, Shelbyville,

Ashland City, Gainesboro, South Carthage, Dover, Carthage,

Gordonsville, McMinnville, Waverly, McEwen, Hendersonville,

Dickson, Manchester, Pulaski, Lafayette, Lebanon, Columbia,

Brentwood, Spencer, Clarksville, Hohenwald, Kingston Springs,

Lawrenceburg, Woodbury, Erin, Waynesboro, Clifton, Franklin,

Lewisburg, Coalmont, Mount Juliet, and Crossville

238 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...A portion of Middle Tennessee.


* WHEN...From noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


&&


$$


27

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>005-007-

008-010>012-020-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-272200-

/O.EXT.KMEG.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1200Z/

Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-

St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-

Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-

Tallahatchie-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-

Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Chester-

Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-

Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro,

Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City,

Marianna, Helena-West Helena, Kennett, Caruthersville, Southaven,

Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica,

Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Charleston,

Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg,

Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington,

Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons,

Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis,

Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi,

  Southeast Missouri and West Tennessee.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Memphis TN

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


MSZ006-009-013>017-021>024-272200-

/O.EXB.KMEG.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1200Z/

Tishomingo-Prentiss-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-

Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-

Including the cities of Iuka, Booneville, Oxford, New Albany,

Pontotoc, Tupelo, Fulton, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Bruce,

Calhoun City, Houston, Okolona, Amory, and Aberdeen

234 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Jackson MS

159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


LAZ024-026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>054-059-271600-

/O.EXB.KJAN.WI.Y.0003.240227T1300Z-240228T1500Z/

Catahoula-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-

Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-

Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-

Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-

Including the cities of Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Vidalia,

Ferriday, West Ferriday, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,

Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus,

Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,

Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Yazoo City,

Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River,

De Kalb, Scooba, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest,

Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson,

Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, and Fayette

159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of northeast Louisiana and central

  Mississippi.


* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

125 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


ALZ011>015-017>041-043-272100-

/O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0005.240227T1800Z-240228T1800Z/

Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-

Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-

Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-

Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Elmore-

Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,

Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre,

Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana,

Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga,

Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville,

Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Alexander City,

Dadeville, Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Demopolis, Linden, Selma,

Prattville, Wetumpka, and Tallassee

125 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST

WEDNESDAY...


* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

  expected.


* WHERE...Portions of central Alabama.


* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Wednesday.


* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.


&&


$$

Monday, February 26, 2024

Quick Forecast Update

Only going to do a bullets-point forecast this evening. Yesterday a member of my extended family suffered a stroke and is recuperating from a very frightening couple of days. The situation has knocked the wind out of me. This is not a paying gig, so we're only doing bullet points this time. 

It was mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today with a good southerly breeze. Even this morning, winds were gusting up to 20 miles per hour or more. The High in Cullman was 73 after a morning Low of 50. Jasper got up to 75 degrees after a morning Low of 39. Haleyville had a High of 73 and Low of 49. 




So things are quiet for now overall. Tomorrow we'll get up to about 75 degrees with clouds and winds on the increase. 



A cold front will push through here on Wednesday, and we'll have rain, gusty winds, and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, with a High near 70, Low near 60. 


The Storm Prediction Center has kept us in an outlook for only general thunderstorms, since the air looks like it will be way too stable for severe thunderstorms, and as discussed even last week on this blog, things only looked favorable for a low-end threat to begin with, synoptic setup just looked too messy.

Thursday looks like a mix of sun and clouds, brief break from the rain, High in mid-50's, Low near 30. 

Without splitting hairs and looking at any remaining model discrepancies, will just mention the basic idea that we'll have at least scattered and perhaps numerous showers coming back on Friday, with a High in the 50's and a Low near 40. 

Then Saturday any showers should definitely be more scattered in nature and we have a High back in the 60's, Low in upper 40's approximately.

And to be frank, this extended period still looks unsettled and a messy forecast, sort of unclear, where we have to fall back on probabilities without being able to give as much specific detail as we might like to. 

The High should get back to about 70 for Sunday and Monday. Lows in the 50's. Sunday the chance of rain is minimal, but it might be a lot like Thursday in the sense that clouds may hang around even if there is little or no rain. 

And then Monday the rain chances start to climb again, up to about 40-50% as another cold front approaches. That next front probably will not pass through the area until at least Tuesday of next week. But we could see at least some scattered rain ahead of it Monday of next week.

I did glance at the GFS and ECMWF latest runs. The weekend rain is a little clearer than it was between the two models, and I have a better idea of where to draw probability lines. After looking at it though, I'm not sure I'd rule out Monday for our next cold front arriving. Confidence is not high in the extended period this time, only for the basic forecast over the next three days. For the other four days, we are looking at general trends with this one. None of it is clear-cut. 



Our rainfall totals for this forecast period should average about one inch. 

And I would give you a link to the weather safety classes Nashville is holding, but they took it off their website and have not recently promoted it on the X-rated tweetybird site formerly known as Twitter. Which is the only social media even halfway worth keeping up with anymore. So if you haven't already signed up for one, just forget it. Nashville has issued a wind advisory:



The Huntsville office is holding off on one for now, which is why Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin Counties stick out like a sore thumb there. I'm glad some of our local broadcast meteorologists have made efforts to improve some of these weird potholes in communicating with the general public that people working for the government are powerless to do much about. At least this is not high-impact weather. It still frustrates me sometimes when such things happen during a winter storm or something like that. The map just looks so goofy here. Anyone can figure out that the winds will be similar in those three counties as in the surrounding counties. So it just looks strange. The County Warning/Forecast Areas look pretty arbitrary sometimes, but it is not as bad as a time back in the 1990's when the Huntsville office was actually shut down. And Birmingham had to try to issue warnings for all of North and Central Alabama. We've got it pretty good these days. The offices tend to coordinate well when the weather is high-impact. When somebody I know just survived major brain surgery and can talk clearly, I'm not going to gripe too much. Though the overall situation, topped off with some other things, has put me in a foul mood. 

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Warm and Sunny Tomorrow, Then Clouds and Rain/Storms Return by Wednesday

Today (High 66): Sunny. Mild.

Tonight (Low 46): Clear. Cool.

Tomorrow (High 71): Mostly sunny. Warmer and becoming breezy.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 57): Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm and windy.

Wednesday (High 72, Low 61): Rainy and windy. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, and some could be strong.

Thursday (High 53, Low 32): Mostly sunny.

Friday (High 56, Low 38): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 61, Low 43): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 65, Low 46): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Winter Storm to Affect the Rockies and Nearby

Just passing this along since usually I stay locked into our local weather, but this is a story in the bigger picture.  

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

234 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2024


Valid 12Z Sun Feb 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024


...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain

Region, Northern/Central Rockies, and higher elevations of the Great

Basin...


...Light snow over parts of the Northeast and snow over the Northern

Plains on Monday...


...Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday...


A strong winter storm and cold front will move into the Northwest on

Sunday and progress southeastward into the Northern Rockies on Monday.

Heavy mountain snow over the Cascades will impact the passes by late

Sunday, with greater than 80% chance of at least a foot of snow above

1500ft through early Tuesday. In addition, snowfall will sometimes become

heavy, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, along with windy conditions,

creating areas of blowing snow and drifting snow and significantly

reducing visibility.


Furthermore, snow squalls are likely along the path of the cold front on

Monday over the Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies, which could create

a rapid drop in visibility and icing on roadways, leading to dangerous

travel. Additionally, much colder air behind the strong cold front will

drop temperatures into the teens and colder by Tuesday morning.


Further, the system will produce coastal rain over the Northwest, with

snow levels lowering to near sea level after the front passes. Overnight

Sunday, rain will move into parts of California, with higher-elevation

snow. Moreover, on Monday, heavy snow will impact the Sierra Nevada

Mountains. A wave of low pressure will move over parts of the Northern

Plains by Monday evening as snow develops over the region. There is also a

risk of rain/freezing rain moving over parts of the Upper Mississippi

Valley.


Meanwhile, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward

over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio

Valley. The moisture will aid in creating scattered light rain showers

over parts of the Ohio Valley overnight Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday,

the moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio

Valley. Furthermore, upper-level energy will assist in creating light snow

over parts of the Northeast overnight Sunday into Monday evening.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Cold Tomorrow Morning, Then a Warming Trend/A Couple Sunny Days, Then Storms Coming in Wednesday

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 67, Low 30): Sunny. Cold morning, mild afternoon.

Monday (High 71, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Warmer. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 58): Partly to mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Warm and breezy.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 72, Low 63): Thunderstorms likely - a few could become severe. 

Thursday (High 54, Low 35): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower.

Friday (High 56, Low 39): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 61, Low 44): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 67, Mínima 30): Soleado. Mañana fría, tarde templada.

Lunes (Máxima 71, Mínima 46): Mayormente soleado. Más cálido.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 58): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada. Cálido y ventoso.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 72, Mínima 63): Es probable que haya tormentas eléctricas; algunas podrían volverse severas.

Jueves (Máxima 54, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia.

Viernes (Máxima 56, Mínima 39): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 61, Mínima 44): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Friday, February 23, 2024

Plenty of Sunshine Through Early Next Week, Unsettled Pattern Returns Wednesday

Today (High 65): Sunny. Mild and breezy.

Tonight (Low 40): Clear skies. Breezy and cool.

Tomorrow (High 59): Sunny. Staying cool and breezy.

Sunday (High 64, Low 30): Sunny. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon.

Monday (High 69, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Milder temperatures. 

Tuesday (High 75, Low 56): Partly to mostly cloudy.

Wednesday (High 72, Low 60): Showers and thunderstorms likely - some storms could become strong.

Thursday (High 55, Low 40): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 60, Low 41): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Mild with Some Sunshine Peeking Out This Weekend, Unsettled Next Week

FORECAST: Saturday (High 66, Low 46): Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild.  Sunday (High 73, Low 50): Partly to mostly cloudy. Warmer.  Monday (Hi...