The storm surge with this could be insane, and the latest forecast of wind speeds is now up to 115 knots, 130 miles per hour, which would make it a "Category Four" hurricane, on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, where Five is the highest. Unlike tornado ratings, where wind speeds are estimated after looking at the damage, these hurricane ratings are given in real time, from actual observations of the maximum sustained winds. The people who fly into these storms sometimes seem to me like heroes. I'm sure it's a thrill too, but they sure provide us with valuable data. Even the best computer models could not forecast these things without people willing to get their hands dirty. I hope people have already evacuated for the most part.
It seems I was not alone in my frustration at a lot of residents in the path of this hurricane shrugging off the evacuation orders. The British paper the Daily Mail wrote an article about it. Maybe some people will luck out or get to a shelter before the worst gets to them. It hasn't been even a full year since further to the South in Florida, they had to deal with Hurricane Ian. And this part of the state hasn't had a major hurricane in a long time, as Governor DeSantis pointed out. So we'll see how it goes.
And this storm even looks impressive on radar. Notice that almost the entire west coast of Florida is under a Tornado Watch, because tornadoes can form very quickly in those spiral bands on the Eastern side of a hurricane.
Tornadoes associated with hurricanes tend to happen fast and be short-lived. Remember that in a Tornado Warning, you need to move to a small interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy house or other strong building that is not a mobile home. Even places that do not see hurricane impacts or flooding may have a low risk of seeing a tornado out of this, or some minor wind damage from just strong gusts out of some of these rain bands from a rather powerful hurricane.
363
WTNT35 KNHC 300256
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
...IDALIA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued,
and the Tropical Storm Watch for the Lower Florida Keys is
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast
to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late
Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
major hurricane during the next few hours before it reaches the Big
Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane
while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches
the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida early Wednesday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will begin within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast
soon.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the coast of
west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.
The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas on Wednesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
571
WTNT25 KNHC 300254
TCMAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 84.7W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 80SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 80SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 84.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
323
FONT15 KNHC 300256
PWSAT5
HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) 1(31) X(31) 1(32)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 8(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 7( 7) 45(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 12(12) 48(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 13(13) 46(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 70(71) 17(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 11(11) 31(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 89(91) 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 48(48) 15(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 93(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 48(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KINGS BAY GA 34 34 64(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
KINGS BAY GA 50 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WAYCROSS GA 34 48 51(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WAYCROSS GA 50 1 73(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 32 64(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
JACKSONVILLE 34 37 59(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 86 11(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 7 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
THE VILLAGES 34 42 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
ORLANDO FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
TAMPA FL 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ST MARKS FL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
ST MARKS FL 50 58 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
ST MARKS FL 64 33 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
APALACHICOLA 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
APALACHICOLA 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
APALACHICOLA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 300259
TCDAT5
Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming
increasingly more organized. The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is
becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery
consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong
convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure
is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb. Flight-level and
SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the
aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.
Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of
north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving
between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The system is expected
to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall
along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to
eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the
northeast U.S. coast. The 12-hour track forecast point for this
advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model
consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. It
should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and
HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west.
After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast
of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the
track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of
the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the
regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea. Given
the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow
southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days.
Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable
thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening
seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast
calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is
fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model
simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic,
significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to
the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear.
Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of
Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.
Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force
winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.
3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend,
central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina
into Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST
24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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