Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Hurricane Idalia Nearing Florida Bend With 130 Sustained Winds





Can't help sort of feeling for people in the path of this who were not able to evacuate. This storm has a smaller eyewall than usual but is still as fierce as it was expected to be. Next few hours, it will move inland. And then we'll see how things go. 

000

WTNT35 KNHC 300858

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023


...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE

FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.1N 84.1W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the

United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South

Carolina.


A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to

South Santee River.


A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina

to South Santee River South Carolina.


A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City

North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico

and Albemarle Sounds.


The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from

Bonita Beach southward is discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

* St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa

Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia

* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound

* Edisto Beach to South Santee River


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


Additional warnings could be required later today.


For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located

by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West.

Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h).

A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with

Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this

morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the

northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of

Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.


Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds

have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.

Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane

Wind Scale.  Idalia could continue to strengthen before it

reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours.  While

Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a

hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast

of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today.  Idalia should

emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday

and move eastward through late week.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches) 

based on aircraft data.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml


STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft

Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft

Tampa Bay...4-6 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft

Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft

Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft

Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's 

River...1-3 ft

Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft

South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the

relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary

greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your

area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions

spreading northward and westward through this morning.


Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm

warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.


Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area

along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and

tonight.


Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along

the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.


Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the

warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South

Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.


RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of

rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big

Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern

North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to

areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with

considerable impacts.


SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern

coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the

north-central Gulf coast through today.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across

west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the

tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon

and tonight.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake



000

WTNT25 KNHC 300856

TCMAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023

0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023


NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO

LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).

CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE

MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  84.1W AT 30/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  16 KT


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB

EYE DIAMETER  10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......120NE 150SE  50SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 135SW 135NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  84.1W AT 30/0900Z

AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  84.5W


FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N  82.7W...INLAND

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT...120NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.1N  79.6W...INLAND

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.

34 KT...120NE 170SE  50SW  30NW.


FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N  76.1W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

34 KT...160NE 140SE 130SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N  72.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...170NE  80SE 150SW 150NW.


FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.4N  70.7W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE  70SE  80SW  90NW.


FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N  69.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...130NE  60SE  80SW 120NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N  68.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 30.5N  66.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  84.1W


INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1200Z


NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z


$$

FORECASTER BLAKE


000

FONT15 KNHC 300856

PWSAT5


HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023               

0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023                                            


AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   

29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  

115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       


Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 


CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               


PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           

        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      


PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 



  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   


               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 

  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  

             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON


FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

LOCATION       KT                                                   


OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)


CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   2( 2)  15(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)


FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)


CHERRY PT NC   34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)


NEW RIVER NC   34  X   4( 4)  37(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   5( 5)  36(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


SURF CITY NC   34  X  16(16)  40(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)

SURF CITY NC   50  X   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)


WILMINGTON NC  34  X  13(13)  29(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

WILMINGTON NC  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  46(46)  33(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)

BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   5( 5)  26(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


FLORENCE SC    34  1  27(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)


COLUMBIA SC    34  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)


LITTLE RIVER   34  1  65(66)  14(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

LITTLE RIVER   50  X  13(13)  18(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

LITTLE RIVER   64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


MYRTLE BEACH   34  1  75(76)  10(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)

MYRTLE BEACH   50  X  24(24)  16(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)

MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)


GEORGETOWN SC  34  1  80(81)   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)

GEORGETOWN SC  50  X  18(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)


CHARLESTON SC  34  2  94(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)

CHARLESTON SC  50  X  69(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)

CHARLESTON SC  64  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)


BEAUFORT MCAS  34 12  86(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)

BEAUFORT MCAS  50  1  80(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)

BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)


AUGUSTA GA     34  2   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)


SAVANNAH GA    34 36  63(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAVANNAH GA    50  1  68(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)

SAVANNAH GA    64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


KINGS BAY GA   34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

KINGS BAY GA   50 20  26(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

KINGS BAY GA   64  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


WAYCROSS GA    34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WAYCROSS GA    50 80  14(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)

WAYCROSS GA    64 12   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)


MAYPORT NS FL  34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MAYPORT NS FL  50 11   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

MAYPORT NS FL  64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)


JACKSONVILLE   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

JACKSONVILLE   50 14   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

JACKSONVILLE   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GAINESVILLE FL 50 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)


DAYTONA BEACH  34 19   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)


THE VILLAGES   34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)


ORLANDO FL     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


PATRICK AFB    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


VENICE FL      34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)


CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CEDAR KEY FL   50 65   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)

CEDAR KEY FL   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


TALLAHASSEE FL 34 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

TALLAHASSEE FL 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


ST MARKS FL    34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)

ST MARKS FL    50 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

ST MARKS FL    64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)


APALACHICOLA   34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)


BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)


$$                                                                  

FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


270 

WTNT45 KNHC 300857

TCDAT5


Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023


Idalia continues to undergo rapid intensification.  Maximum

flight-level winds were 123 kt, with believable SFMR values of 115

kt.  Satellite images show a small eye surrounded by very cold

clouds tops, especially in the western quadrant.  The initial wind

speed is set to 115 kt, making Idalia an extremely dangerous

category 4 hurricane.


The hurricane still has a few hours left to intensify before it

makes landfall. The biggest change to the intensity forecast is to

increase the wind speeds over southeastern Georgia and South

Carolina as the rapid motion and track close to the coast is

expected to keep the system near hurricane strength for longer.

Thus a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of those

coasts, and the Hurricane Watch is extended northeastward.  After

the hurricane moves offshore, the wind field on the northwestern

side near eastern North Carolina is expected to be enhanced by a

cold front, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a

Tropical Storm Warning in that area.  The long-range intensity

forecast is quite uncertain with Idalia taking on some hybrid

characteristics due to a baroclinc trough. No changes were made at

this time, and the forecast remains close to the consensus.


Idalia is moving faster toward the north-northeast or 025/16 kt.

After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast

of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours.  Uncertainty in the

track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, and the latest

guidance is significantly faster.  The new forecast is adjusted

toward the consensus, but could be too slow at long range.



KEY MESSAGES:


1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet

above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere

between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.

Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along

portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in

effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by

local officials.


2. Destructive life-threatening winds will occur where the core of

Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with

hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane

Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also

spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern

Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane

Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared

for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are

likely in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South

Carolina where Hurricane Warnings are now in effect.


3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with

considerable impacts, are expected from the Florida Big Ben through,

central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina

into Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  30/0900Z 29.1N  84.1W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  30/1800Z 31.0N  82.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

 24H  31/0600Z 33.1N  79.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 36H  31/1800Z 33.8N  76.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

 48H  01/0600Z 33.3N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  01/1800Z 32.4N  70.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  02/0600Z 31.5N  69.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  03/0600Z 30.7N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  04/0600Z 30.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH


$$

Forecaster Blake

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