Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Hurricane Idalia Has Winds of 120 MPH, Nearing Landfall at Florida Bend




 427 

WTNT35 KNHC 300555

TCPAT5


BULLETIN

Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023

200 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023


...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN 

THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.3N 84.5W

ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa

Bay


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South

Carolina

* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia

border

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Additional warnings will likely be required later today.


For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located

near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 84.5 West. Idalia is moving

toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northward to 

north-northeastward motion is expected through morning, with

Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this

morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the 

northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of 

Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.


Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds 

have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Idalia 

is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. 

Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is forecast to  

become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Big Bend coast 

of Florida this morning. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane 

while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches 

the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the 

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles 

(260 km). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 54 

mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) in the northern 

rainbands of Idalia. Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (KSRQ) 

recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to 

67 mph (108 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter

aircraft observations is 945 mb (27.91 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft

Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft

Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft

Tampa Bay...4-6 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft

Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft

Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft

Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft

South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft

South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft

Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft

Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3

ft

Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft

Florida Keys...1-2 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.


WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area in Florida in a few hours, with tropical storm 

conditions spreading northward and westward through this morning.


Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm

warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.


Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along 

the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.


Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the

warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South

Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday.  

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in 

North Carolina by Thursday.


RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of

rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big

Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern

North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to

areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally

considerable impacts.


SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern

coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the

north-central Gulf coast through today.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight from the coast of

west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.

The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal

Carolinas later today.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake

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