Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Quick Forecast Update

So we had a lot of clouds around today and windy conditions. We are under a Wind Advisory. Which basically means things could blow off your porch. 

We actually had some showers today, especially this morning, but mainly variable levels of cloudiness and strong wind gusts. The High in Cullman was 72 with a morning Low of 59. 

The reason I'm posting another update is that I didn't feel the formal forecast format worked too well that I posted this morning. The timing of the front keeps looking quicker tomorrow too. So here, not going to go into a lot of technical details, but going to give you a less formal, plain-language version of what to expect. We're not even going to worry about the severe weather threat going on up in the Ohio Valley, because they have their own meteorologists up that way or just guys like me who pass along weather information without having a degree. 

Tonight is going to be cloudy and windy, a Low in the lower 60's, probably not much in the way of even light rain beyond what we've had so far today. 

Tomorrow is looking like just some rain in the morning, and the high wind gusts continuing, the air looking so stable that we're really not even worried about regular thunderstorms so much anymore, just rain, wind, and then . . . we'll probably make it up to the mid/upper 60's still, but it will be in the morning. 

It is now looking like our temperature shift will come mid-to-late morning. So this is not a day it makes sense to post a High/Low and then maybe put a note trying to explain it. The temperature is likely to fall to the 40's before we even get to the Noon hour. And it will hover there as the rain slowly tapers off in the afternoon. 

By daybreak on Thursday, we should be back down around 30 degrees. Will still have a North/Northeast breeze making it feel even colder. During the day Thursday, we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies, staying breezy, but warming to about 53-54 degrees for the afternoon High. 

Then the rain comes back Friday, showers are likely, just a cold rain, High in about the mid-50's and the morning's Low back up around 40. 

Then Saturday we should make it up to the upper 60's with a lot of clouds hanging around but a mix of sunshine as well. Should start the day in the upper 40's. The chance of any one spot getting a shower on Saturday is only about 3 out of 10, or 30%. So if you have weekend plans outside, I would not cancel them, just have a way to get out of the rain if you need to. 

Basically the same for Sunday as far as rain chances except they are even lower, 20%, which is more like a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. So these weekend rain chances after Friday are only about what you'd see on a typical summer day. So yes, there are rain chances, but overall no big deal, pretty comfortable temperatures too, should start Sunday in the lower 50's and warm to about 70 degrees in the afternoon. 

Then Monday and Monday night, we do have another front coming at us. Based on current trends, the threat for any stronger storms is looking very low. But rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday into Monday night. The High should be in the lower 70's, Low in mid-50's, maybe upper-50's if it gets a little more muggy. 

And then the best bet for Tuesday, given that the computer models are wishy-washy on the timing, as is often the case a week in advance, is that rain is still likely, maybe some thunderstorms still in the mix, the High back down in about the mid-60's, the overnight Low between Monday and Tuesday somewhere in the 50's. 

So there ya' go. Tomorrow looks cold and rainy and windy, if you just wanna' keep it simple. The cold may arrive as early as mid-morning, where previously, I was thinking it would get here in the afternoon. This front is moving fast. Might be good to backtrack and see which computer model was most consistent in showing this setup with the front just racing through here instead of the stormier looks that turned out not to verify at all. 

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