Saturday, June 10, 2023

Some Summer Storms Tomorrow, Unsettled/Wet Week In General

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 86, Low 65): Mostly cloudy with numerous rounds of thunderstorms possible - some could be strong in the afternoon and evening. Rain will become likely going through the night hours, with a few storms still possible in the mix. 

Monday (High 80, Low 64): Gradually decreasing clouds. Widely scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorms, are still possible, mainly in the morning hours.

Tuesday (High 79, Low 58): Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 82, Low 61): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 83, Low 62): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 85, Low 64): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 88, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Father's Day (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 87, Low 73): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 88, Low 73): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 88, Low 73): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

(Discussion)







We had mostly sunny skies in the Tennessee Valley today overall, though clouds have increased through the afternoon and evening hours. The High in Cullman was 84, and the Low was 59. Winds have shifted back around to southerly directions, and it has gotten breezy at times today. Jasper also started the day at 59 degrees but warmed all the way to 86 this afternoon. Haleyville saw a High of 85 and a Low of 58. 

Elsewhere around the area, I notice that the visibility is down to 9 miles in Decatur at 7 PM under mostly cloudy skies. They had a High of 86 and Low of 60 today. Huntsville got all the way up to 87 degrees after a morning Low of 62. A real temperature gradient in Gadsden, High of 86 and Low of 53. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 87 after a morning Low of 61. 

Then branching around around the region, Birmingham saw a High of 87 and Low of 65 today. Atlanta had a High of 86, Low of 64. Looks like Nashville was our hot spot, High of 89, but nice and cool this morning, Low of 57 degrees. I saw very mixed reviews of the Shania Twain concert there the other night. I remember a Taylor Swift show got delayed by rain earlier in the year, and I think something similar happened last time Garth Brooks brought his tour through there. At least I saw Shania got Tanya Tucker and Wynonna Judd to join her on the stage. That would have made it worth seeing, but I bet I'd have agreed with some of the better concert reviews. Memphis got up to 85 degrees today with a Low of 72. Tupelo has actually had a thunderstorm within the last hour, and got up to 89 degrees today, Low of 67. So it got as warm as Nashville did, but it's a bit further South. 

We've got a fairly typical summer pattern going on across the country with several weather systems at a standoff. In our vicinity we've got high pressure centered over the Mid-South (close to Memphis) and a front stalled down around Dothan. 




That front is going to lift northward tonight and then come back through the Valley as a cold front tomorrow, bringing us some chances for organized thunderstorms. Then the rain will slowly be tapering off through Monday as the front makes it back down to about Montgomery.



They've had several thunderstorms reach severe limits this afternoon/evening in East Central back through Southern Mississippi.





Tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a chance for some of these stronger summer storms to get organized in North Alabama and more so, in Southern Middle Tennessee. There is a minimal tornado threat outlooked for mainly Northern Arkansas into Western Tennessee and Kentucky, clipping Northern Mississippi, also a sliver that clips Northern Texas out there. But for the most part, this is only a threat for some of those summer storms that can briefly produce damaging winds or some large hail around here, mainly in our Tennessee counties, but could see some on the Alabama side as well, especially the closer you get to the state line. And they could be a little more organized than we usually see in the Summer. After all, we don't get cold front passages all that often this time of year. 



During the day a 50% chance of rain looks reasonable for tomorrow, and during the afternoon is when we have the best chance of any storms pulsing up in the heat and approaching severe criteria. Rain will be likely as we get into the night hours, but the chance of stronger storms will be diminishing. High in mid-80's, about 85-86, Low near 65-66.



On Monday we see some of the typical model madness with the GFS trying to rush the system through here now. 


The NAM is less sold on the idea. 


And the ECWMF also shows a more gradual progression of the rain moving out. 

I'm going to keep a 30% chance of rain in there with an emphasis on it being during the morning hours, taking into account the overall pattern over past model runs on other days. Or may cut it down to 20%. But I think the GFS in particular is showing us too dry here. Looks like a High down near 80 and a Low in the mid-60's again. 



A second system will move in here on Tuesday in the westerly upper-wind flow. Should be enough to bump rain/thunderstorm chances back up to 40% and keep High near 80, Low dropping into upper 50's with better dry air Monday night/Tuesday morning allowing for radiational cooling.

This is one of those rare times in the summer that the short term regular forecast is challenging. Or maybe I have a selective memory for how boring summer weather was in the past. 



Then for Wednesday, bring the rain chance back up to 50% with a High of 80 or so, Low of 60 or so. As we go into the extended especially, have to just give good probabilities.


For Thursday, trim rain chance back to 40%, High in lower 80's, Low in lower 60's.



For Friday, continue the drying trend with bringing rain chance down to 30% again, High may rise into mid-80's again.



Then for Saturday, 20% chance of rain, just isolated rain possible or a thunderstorm, more of a typical summer day with the High making it back into the upper 80's, Low rebounding to at least mid-60's.

Then looking into the land of tea leaves, Father's Day looks like another typical hot summer day with a High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's, 20% chance of a shower or storm. Then there is a hint on the GFS of an increase in rain chances for Monday, but ECMWF is not on board, so probably will keep at 20% with High approaching 90, Low in upper 60's. 



And looks like a 20% rain chance is reasonable for Tuesday too, High near 90, Low near 70. 

And I do notice that the GFS is being persistent with developing a tropical cyclone between Mexico and Cuba in the extended, as we get out close to 10 days. But there are things certain models are notorious for, and even with the recent upgrade, the American model is known for throwing out some wild goose chases like this, sort of like I think it's rushing the system through too fast on Monday. And I'll keep an eye on it to see if this trend lasts in future models runs. I really expected the idea to already be gone by now. It's also worth noting that the European (ECMWF) has not picked up on this idea at all, and it usually outdoes the other models by picking up on tropical cyclones sooner. It really put the other models to shame for Hurricane Sandy in 2012, I think was the year that happened. And the model I've found most reliable for picking up on hurricanes or tropical storms at a really long-range is not showing even a hint of this. Only seeing it as an idea on the GFS so far. If you're really into weather, sure, watch this to see if the idea even lasts the next two or three days, but if you're an average person, I think you'll be fine not giving this a second thought. Every year there are many scary-looking scenarios, especially on this model, in the tropics, that do not play out at all. If you're a weather geek, they are fun to watch and wonder if anything will happen after all. Once in a while something does, but seeing it at this time range, on this model, probably not going to happen. 

And really any forecast beyond seven days is highly questionable. That's why when I do one, I call it reading tea leaves. Even in summer, it is often not that reliable. Though it can be fun to try. 


This does look like a decent soaker of a forecast. We could see average rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in the Tennessee Valley between so many chances of rain. 


Tomorrow we'll have to watch for isolated instances of a flood threat along with the potential for strong (perhaps damaging) winds and/or some large hail. 



Then between Tuesday and Wednesday, again we will have some risk of a few places getting excessive rainfall. This is not a big flooding threat, but if you live in a flood-prone area, it is worth paying attention to, in case you have the luck to get one of those rogue events in the early part of summer. The main thing to remember is to avoid crossing any water that covers a roadway, or especially a bridge. 

Turn around, don't drown, as they say. 

As far as any storms that were to produce winds strong enough to damage trees or power lines, it is better if you can be in a sturdy house rather than a mobile home, especially if you've got trees around that could fall on the structure. And ideally you want to be on the lowest floor away from windows, toward the center of the house, maybe in a hallway. You don't have to take tornado-level precautions for storms that get out of hand in the summer, but especially if you're in a mobile home, might want to have a healthy respect for them. If I was in a mobile home tomorrow and saw a line or cluster of severe thunderstorms about a county away, heading for me, I'd probably get in the car and drive to a place with something good to eat, and stay there until the storms blew past. If close to a mall with a good food court, you're in great shape. 

Overall severe storms are not that big a deal in the summer. But I remember living in a trailer with trees around and being glad to also have a storm pit right across the road for even when things got a little rowdy during some of the summertime. Most of the time we were fine though even with the stronger storms. It can be a close call every now and then, and might be better to put safety first, even though it's aggravating when the severe weather season is over with. Tomorrow is a Sunday, so a lot of people may be out eating after church services anyway. It's probably not that big a deal for most of us. But I always think, if one tree falls onto a home or one window blows out, it is dangerous to whoever it happens to, if they are in the house at the time. And something like that could happen tomorrow afternoon, even though more of us will probably see regular showers and storms that stay well under severe limits. 

And usually I'm not going to mention the threat of those pulse summer storms to produce minor tree damage and whatnot. It is just that tomorrow could get somewhat organized with a cold front coming through, which usually isn't going to happen in the summer. It is one of those days people might want to play it safe, especially up along and north of the Tennessee border. 


Silver lining: All this rain should help the air quality. And we were getting close to drought conditions, not going to be a problem now with this week's weather.

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