Sunday (High 86, Low 65): Mostly cloudy with numerous rounds of thunderstorms possible - some could be strong in the afternoon and evening. Rain will become likely going through the night hours, with a few storms still possible in the mix.
Monday (High 80, Low 64): Gradually decreasing clouds. Widely scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorms, are still possible, mainly in the morning hours.
Tuesday (High 79, Low 58): Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Wednesday (High 82, Low 61): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday (High 83, Low 62): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Friday (High 85, Low 64): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday (High 88, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
(Tea Leaves Territory)
Father's Day (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Monday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Tuesday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday (High 87, Low 73): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Monday (High 88, Low 73): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Tuesday (High 88, Low 73): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
We had mostly sunny skies in the Tennessee Valley today overall, though clouds have increased through the afternoon and evening hours. The High in Cullman was 84, and the Low was 59. Winds have shifted back around to southerly directions, and it has gotten breezy at times today. Jasper also started the day at 59 degrees but warmed all the way to 86 this afternoon. Haleyville saw a High of 85 and a Low of 58.
Elsewhere around the area, I notice that the visibility is down to 9 miles in Decatur at 7 PM under mostly cloudy skies. They had a High of 86 and Low of 60 today. Huntsville got all the way up to 87 degrees after a morning Low of 62. A real temperature gradient in Gadsden, High of 86 and Low of 53. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 87 after a morning Low of 61.
Then branching around around the region, Birmingham saw a High of 87 and Low of 65 today. Atlanta had a High of 86, Low of 64. Looks like Nashville was our hot spot, High of 89, but nice and cool this morning, Low of 57 degrees. I saw very mixed reviews of the Shania Twain concert there the other night. I remember a Taylor Swift show got delayed by rain earlier in the year, and I think something similar happened last time Garth Brooks brought his tour through there. At least I saw Shania got Tanya Tucker and Wynonna Judd to join her on the stage. That would have made it worth seeing, but I bet I'd have agreed with some of the better concert reviews. Memphis got up to 85 degrees today with a Low of 72. Tupelo has actually had a thunderstorm within the last hour, and got up to 89 degrees today, Low of 67. So it got as warm as Nashville did, but it's a bit further South.
We've got a fairly typical summer pattern going on across the country with several weather systems at a standoff. In our vicinity we've got high pressure centered over the Mid-South (close to Memphis) and a front stalled down around Dothan.
That front is going to lift northward tonight and then come back through the Valley as a cold front tomorrow, bringing us some chances for organized thunderstorms. Then the rain will slowly be tapering off through Monday as the front makes it back down to about Montgomery.
They've had several thunderstorms reach severe limits this afternoon/evening in East Central back through Southern Mississippi.
Tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a chance for some of these stronger summer storms to get organized in North Alabama and more so, in Southern Middle Tennessee. There is a minimal tornado threat outlooked for mainly Northern Arkansas into Western Tennessee and Kentucky, clipping Northern Mississippi, also a sliver that clips Northern Texas out there. But for the most part, this is only a threat for some of those summer storms that can briefly produce damaging winds or some large hail around here, mainly in our Tennessee counties, but could see some on the Alabama side as well, especially the closer you get to the state line. And they could be a little more organized than we usually see in the Summer. After all, we don't get cold front passages all that often this time of year.
During the day a 50% chance of rain looks reasonable for tomorrow, and during the afternoon is when we have the best chance of any storms pulsing up in the heat and approaching severe criteria. Rain will be likely as we get into the night hours, but the chance of stronger storms will be diminishing. High in mid-80's, about 85-86, Low near 65-66.
On Monday we see some of the typical model madness with the GFS trying to rush the system through here now.
The NAM is less sold on the idea.
And the ECWMF also shows a more gradual progression of the rain moving out.
I'm going to keep a 30% chance of rain in there with an emphasis on it being during the morning hours, taking into account the overall pattern over past model runs on other days. Or may cut it down to 20%. But I think the GFS in particular is showing us too dry here. Looks like a High down near 80 and a Low in the mid-60's again.
A second system will move in here on Tuesday in the westerly upper-wind flow. Should be enough to bump rain/thunderstorm chances back up to 40% and keep High near 80, Low dropping into upper 50's with better dry air Monday night/Tuesday morning allowing for radiational cooling.
This is one of those rare times in the summer that the short term regular forecast is challenging. Or maybe I have a selective memory for how boring summer weather was in the past.
Then for Wednesday, bring the rain chance back up to 50% with a High of 80 or so, Low of 60 or so. As we go into the extended especially, have to just give good probabilities.