Thursday, June 8, 2023

A Couple Clear Milder Days, Then Rain Chances To Start New Week

(Forecast)

Friday (High 83, Low 59): Sunny. Mild.

Saturday (High 88, Low 55): Sunny again during the day. A few clouds and perhaps an isolated shower are possible during the evening/night hours.

Sunday (High 86, Low 65): Increasing clouds with scattered showers and storms possible during the day. Then rain becomes likely going into the night hours. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 82, Low 64): Gradually decreasing clouds with a 40% chance of lingering showers.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 60): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 85, Low 63): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 84, Low 64): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 87, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Father's Day (High 90, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Beach Forecast)

Friday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday (High 88, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 72): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

(Notes)

The air quality is bad right now for people who already have asthma or other breathing problems, mainly around cities like Huntsville, Decatur, and Birmingham. Some of our air quality problems are going to be coming from those wildfires in Canada. 

Down at the coast, Mobile and Baldwin counties have also been placed under an Air Quality Alert. And we are actually getting off easy around here if you look at some other parts of the country, mainly along the East Coast. The smoke from those fires is causing some problems. 

(Discussion)





It was a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, not very many clouds around, rain has been scarce, mostly to the South of our area. Winds have been variable and gotten breezy at times. The High in Cullman was 81, with a morning Low of 61. Jasper saw a High of 84 with a Low of 61. Haleyville had a High of 83, Low of 63. 

Decatur also got up to 83, after a morning Low of 65. Gadsden made it up to 84 after a Low of 63. Huntsville saw also a High of 84 but the Low only making it down to 68. They had more clouds in the city preventing as much radiational cooling overnight. Fort Payne seemed to have more of the high-level clouds, a High of 81 and Low of 60. 

Elsewhere around the region, Muscle Shoals had a High of 85 and a Low of 68. Memphis was a bit more humid and cloudy, High of 83, Low of 72. Tupelo got all the way up to 87, Low of 67. Birmingham also got up to 87, Low of 66 down that way. Atlanta got up to 84 with a Low of 70. And Nashville had a High of 82, Low of 64 this morning. 

Over the past 24 hours, we have had a fairly rare event for summer, a frontal passage. So I'm going to do something unusual and let you see the passage of that front before continuing. 









So at the moment, we've got that cold front parked down around Dothan. And if you paid attention to the upper-air analysis above, you saw that we have a strong center of Low pressure over New England, affecting the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic, all the way down the Appalachians. We've also got North/Northwest wind flow aloft that is helping bring smoke from those Canadian fires down this way, which is part of why we have some air quality issues already going on. For most of us, it probably only brings haze in the mornings, but for Madison and Morgan counties, also Jefferson county, including the cities of Huntsville, Decatur, and Birmingham, an air quality alert is in effect. If you know somebody who is sensitive to that, trouble breathing, please be cautious. The West Coast has more of a Rex Block pattern. 



Tomorrow looks like another pleasant day around here, with High pressure at the surface settling over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, close enough to be the main influence on our weather. Looks like a High of about 83-84, Low of about 59-60. Skies should be sunny again, might see an occasional cloud or two. The breezy conditions we saw at times today should be over with, with the front still to our South.



Looks like plenty of sunshine also on tap for Saturday, though we do note some moisture and rain associated with some Low pressure moving through the Midwest/Mid-South. 


Also by evening that front should be lifting back northward into the region as a warm front. 

If we see any rain on Saturday, should be isolated and at night. Overall should be another sunny day, High about 87-88 and the Low in the mid or perhaps upper 50's. 



And then on Sunday the rain chances ramp up. As we have yet another cold front expected to actually push through the region, unusually mild weather for this time of year. This scenario is supported by the NAM and ECMWF though I'm showing the GFS American model here.

During the day Sunday I'm going with a 40% chance of showers and storms, so scattered in nature at first. But as we get into the night hours, rain and storms will become likely. And we could see an isolated stronger storm or two during the heat of the afternoon and evening, capable of some gusty winds or hail in the mix. Expecting a High in the mid-80's and Low in the mid-60's.



Some rain will linger as the front finishes pushing through early Monday. We'll see a rain chance of 40% again and the High only making it to lower 80's, Low in the mid-60's again. 



Low pressure system continues to move Northeast on Tuesday. And we'll see more sun than clouds overall I think, bring rain chance down to minimal 20% like on most summer days, High in lower 80's, Low near 60.



Then rain chances increase again on Wednesday.


As the front starts lifting back to the North.

For now will just increase rain chance to 30% with a High in lower to mid 80's, Low in lower 60's.



On Thursday the GFS wants to hurry the system out of here. 


The ECMWF is not sold on the idea, and neither am I.

Originally I was going to do a 30% chance of rain for Wednesday and 40% for Thursday, but in light of this guidance, think I will reverse that. Keep rain chances in for Thursday but a little less than Wednesday's. High in lower/mid-80's, Low in lower/mid-60's for Thursday. 

Then we get into the realm of reading tea leaves, days 8 through 10. But a lot of broadcast stations are doing 10-day forecasts again these days, so I'll play along for fun. 



Right now next Friday does have a drier look, but having peeked at the European, will temper this with keeping a 20% rain chance in there. Which should allow the High to get back up toward the upper 80's, the Low in mid-to-upper-60's.



More or less a persistence forecast for Saturday, mix of sun and clouds, only a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm, High up near 90, Low could approach 70 but probably upper 60's.



Then the next Sunday, Father's Day, looks like a typical summer day too. If this was not 10 days out in the summertime, I might take out the rain chance, but going with partly cloudy skies, 20% rain chance, maybe a thunderstorm, pretty typical stuff, High near 90, Low near 70. 

And beyond seven days, it really does start to feel like reading tea leaves, not much skill anymore, looking at trends at best. At least this is the one time of year you're likely to get some accuracy with it IMHO. As long as I notice TV stations or others locally giving 10-day outlooks, then I'll try my hand at it once in a while, just to join in the foolishness. 

I do notice that the American model develops a tropical Low off the East coast of Mexico by Father's Day. And that's kind of what I mean about it being like reading tea leaves. Of course you'll monitor that trend and see if it's still there on future model runs, but you can't take stuff like that too seriously. The models are not that good yet, not even the European. 

And by the way, there are no signs of tropical mischief right now. I only mentioned that rogue guidance from the GFS specifically to tell people why NOT to worry about it. 


And this is a wet forecast. We could easily see rainfall totals averaging up to 2-3 inches for North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee over the next week. Most of that rain again coming late Sunday into Monday. 


P.S. Adding in beach forecast for Gulf Shores at 9:24 PM, knew I was forgetting something.

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