Monday, April 3, 2023

Warm and Unsettled, Then Cooler With Lingering Rain Latter Part of Week

Monday (High 69): Rainy and breezy. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. 

Tuesday (High 81, Low 62): Partly cloudy and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible, and could be on the strong side.

Wednesday (High 79, Low 66): Rain and thunderstorms likely. A few storms may be strong, or even reach severe limits. 

Thursday (High 67, Low 56): Overcast with a 50% chance of showers.

Good Friday (High 62, Low 48): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 66, Low 50): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

Easter Sunday (High 69, Low 49): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower. 

A lot of tornado surveys have been completed from Friday night/Saturday morning's outbreak. That Hazel Green/Huntland tornado is the one that really bothers me for what happened around here. 

And April 3-4 is the anniversary of one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history from 1974. Bobby Boyd who worked at the National Weather Service in Nashville for such a long time, posted today that it was the worst event he ever had to work in his career, even worse than the outbreak in 2011. 

At 11 PM, skies are clear and winds are calm in Cullman. The temperature is 63 degrees. The dewpoint is 43, making the relative humidity 49%. The pressure is 29.99 inches and falling. Overall we had a sunny day with a High of 70 and a Low of 37. Clear skies and 52 in Jasper at this hour. Had a High of 73 and Low of 39. 

We've actually got rain coming in again tonight into tomorrow morning as this warm front lifts back northward. 

There's a marginal chance of a severe thunderstorm in North Alabama on Monday, maybe somewhere like Marion or Walker County, but overall the severe thunderstorm potential is expected to stay over Central and South Alabama, and even there, the risk is definitely on the low end. 

If anybody were to see an isolated tornado, it'd be down close to the Gulf Coast. 

Going with likely rain chances for Monday now, a High near 69. Should be breezy at times, and we may have thunderstorms, but the activity should stay elevated and not pose any sort of organized severe weather potential. Even for Walker County, the risk of a storm going severe is looking very low. 

Tuesday unfortunately looks like another potential severe weather outbreak for the same basic areas as last time. Arkansas, parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri are all included in the hot-spot again. There is a significant threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Looks like it will start as supercell thunderstorms. 

Around here, our chance of a shower or thunderstorm is minimal. But we will be warming up to 80 degrees or even higher, with a Low near 60. And the forecast parameters would be favorable for severe weather if we had a source of lift and were in the zone getting any storms from this system. So it is kind of tricky, like if anything could get going, it could become severe. But probably we will barely even see a thundershower or two try to get going around here Tuesday or Tuesday night. 

And because of the expected position of this cold front and low pressure system, it looks like the severe weather threat may be confined to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region on Wednesday after all. 

We might still see some isolated strong storms around here, but the severe weather threat overall is looking low. And I'm not going to complain about that. We have had one system after another lately. 

Will still go with likely rain chances again for Wednesday. Thunderstorms should be in the mix, but if anything goes severe, it'll probably be a few isolated storms. We are going up close to 80 degrees again, overnight Low in mid-60's, so it's a low-end threat, but then I'm also considering the time of year, the pattern lately, and how even a lower-end threat can throw a nasty curveball once in a while. Even if there's only one damaging storm in the whole region, it's a big deal for whoever it does hit. 

After that, the front stalls out, and rain chances will slowly decrease each day as we go toward next weekend. Generally looking at Highs in the 60's and Lows in the 50's. 

Could see at least 2-3 inches of average rainfall totals for this forecast period, and that will lead to some flooding concerns by Wednesday. 


Just on the chance we were to get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning between now and Wednesday, remember, if you want to be really safe:

* Be in a sturdy house, not a mobile home.

* Stay away from windows.

* Get to the lowest floor.

* Get in a smaller space like a bathroom, closet, or hallway.

* Try to make that room or hallway near the center of the house.

If it is a Tornado Warning, then you might want to grab some blankets or pillows, cushions to cover your body, especially your head and neck. Or if you have a safety helmet, that is even better. Or really the best place to be during a tornado is a storm shelter or the underground part of a basement. That's ideal, but very few people have access to that these days. So we do the best we can with conditions that are way below the ideal. Once in a while, protecting someone's head from falling or flying debris can save a life. 

This last event was discouraging in some ways, but the overall severe weather threat with this system looks low, for us, even on Wednesday. Now unfortunately, Tuesday looks like it could be another nightmare situation for places like Arkansas, Missouri, Eastern Iowa, and Illinois. 

And our tornado season runs through the month of May around here. With this active a season, our number is bound to come up for a higher threat sooner or later. It would be nice if we got through the rest of the season without a really organized, significant risk around here, but if I had to bet on it, I'd say we will before the end of day, and maybe before the end of April. The pattern is just too dynamic and active this year. And we are in "Dixie Alley". So try to be prepared whenever that potential does threaten us next. Let these other events be a reminder. 

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