Monday, May 22, 2023

More Clouds and Showers Possible Tomorrow, Drier Midweek

Tuesday (High 74, Low 61): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday (High 80, Low 53): Sunny. Warm but with lower humidity.

Thursday (High 82, Low 55): Sunny. Warm.

Friday (High 79, Low 58): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 78, Low 59): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 80, Low 57): Partly sunny.

Memorial Day (High 83, Low 55): Mostly sunny.

At 4 PM the latest observation from Cullman shows partly cloudy skies and 77 degrees. The dewpoint is 66, making the relative humidity 69%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour, gusts to 13 mph. Pressure is 30.01 inches and steady. Our High today is 79 so far and the Low this morning was 57. It got up to 82 degrees in Jasper this afternoon, also in Haleyville, they are still currently at 82 degrees. Fort Payne has seen a High of 78. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 83. Decatur is currently at 82, High so far. Ditto for Huntsville. It is 81 in Nashville, may end up being their High for today. Birmingham got up to 80, back to 79 now. Tupelo is at 84 degrees, their High today so far. 

Summer has basically come in early this year, even though we're not in the thick of the summer heat yet. It's warm, muggy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the map each day. At least we're starting the transition into a summer pattern.

The weak low pressure systems over Georgia and Florida show up pretty well on satellite imagery, which are kicking up the scattered showers and storms.

We've got those two weak fronts and low pressure systems to our East and a lot of high pressure to our north and west across the great fruited plain. 

Tomorrow looks like a cooler day as these features shift a little West, High near 73-74 after a Low of about 60 or 61. More clouds than sun overall but only a 20-30% chance of rain. Further south you go, better chance of getting one of those scattered showers.

Then we'll clear out Wednesday as the system pushes out of our region, High near 80, Low near 52-53.

Basically same thing, plenty of sunshine on Thursday, slight temperature change, lower 80' sfor the High, mid-50's for the Low.

Going into the extended, basically same temperatures for Friday, but a weak disturbance is showing up in modelling, so will reintroduce a minimal 20% chance of rain, an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

This looks like a backdoor cold front. Moving in from northeast to southwest. A low pressure system will form along it, but showers and storm still look isolated for Saturday, temperatures come down into upper 70's again. Then Sunday and Monday, the rain chances and clouds start to fizzle down again, and we'll have mostly sunny skies, back into lower 80's for Memorial Day.

We are not quite into our typical summer pattern yet, but enjoy the easier temperatures while they last. In another couple weeks, might be a different story, although I think I remember some of the climate models were showing temperatures below average for at least the early summer. That's way out of my league. I just take it a week at a time when I do still try to make forecasts. Most the people forecasting 10 days or more in advance are bluffing anyway. Beyond seven days, you're more looking at general trends than able to forecast a day at a time with any detail and skill. 

There was a weak tropical wave in the Atlantic, but it doesn't look like it is going to do anything. 

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