Monday, June 19, 2023

Forecast on the Fly

What a stormy Father's Day/Juneteenth it ended up being for some people tonight. Sounded really rough in Owens Crossroads.

Monday through Wednesday, not much pattern change, rain chance about 40-50% each day, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with a mix of sun and clouds, Highs near 80 overall, might get to about 82-83 today, Monday, but in general High should stay near 80 through Thursday. Lows should stay in mid-60's.

Then Thursday through Sunday, rain chances dropping to 30-40% range, partly cloudy skies, Highs edging back into mid and perhaps even upper 80's. 

As we get into this coming weekend and next week, hopefully this wacky pattern will be gone and we'll get back to more typical weather for early summer. 


We have a couple of tropical disturbances moving West through the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa at about 15-20 miles per hour. The one furthest west you see there in the red is about to become a tropical depression. The one behind it is developing a lot more gradually. Even if you look at computer model guidance, last I saw, the tropical models were split as to whether it heads for the East Coast of the U.S. or goes into the Caribbean, and really, this early, nobody knows what it is going to do. It has a long way to go across the Atlantic anyway. And there are so many details that can make a difference in how well a tropical cyclone sustains and where it ends up. There will be a lot of speculation, but until we get some official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, take all those speculations with a chunk of salt. This season is unusually active early this year. Several meteorologists have been wondering out loud what month this is, because of that and because of the locally severe storms lately. It is not typical for June weather.

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