Saturday, August 12, 2023

Couple More Hot, Humid Days With Isolated Storms, Then Mild and Much Drier Next Week

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 96, Low 73): Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Very hot and humid, so any storms that form could pack a punch and produce strong winds. 

Monday (High 95, Low 74): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Hot and humid, with an isolated stronger storm or two possible.

Tuesday (High 83, Low 69): Mostly sunny. Much drier, milder air moving in. 

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 80, Low 60): Sunny.

Thursday (High 86, Low 61): Sunny.

Friday (High 89, Low 65): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 96, Low 83): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Very hot and humid. 

Monday (High 95, Low 80): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Hot and humid. 

Tuesday (High 95, Low 80): Partly to mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday through Saturday (Highs in the lower 90's, Lows in the mid-to-upper-70's): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 96, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con lluvias aisladas y posibles tormentas eléctricas. Muy cálido y húmedo, por lo que cualquier tormenta que se forme podría dar un golpe y producir fuertes vientos.

Lunes (Máxima 95, Mínima 74): Parcialmente nublado con lluvias muy dispersas y posibles tormentas eléctricas. Caliente y húmedo, con una tormenta aislada más fuerte o dos posibles.

Martes (Máxima 83, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado. Entra aire mucho más seco y suave.

(Perspectiva extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 86, Mínima 61): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 89, Mínima 65): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 68): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Pronóstico de la playa)

Domingo (Máxima 96, Mínima 83): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias dispersas y tormentas eléctricas. Muy caluroso y húmedo.

Lunes (Máxima 95, Mínima 80): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias dispersas y tormentas eléctricas. Caliente y húmedo.

Martes (Máxima 95, Mínima 80): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas son posibles.

Miércoles a sábado (máximas en la parte inferior de los 90, mínimas en la mitad de la parte superior de los 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 50% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Notes)

Several local National Weather Service offices have gotten together to make preparedness information available both in English and in Spanish. Following their lead, since I was pretty sharp with Spanish once upon a time, I am continuing my experiments with a bilingual forecast when I have the time. Again I welcome any native speakers to leave me a comment, as I am willing to learn, otherwise there is no point in trying it. 

While things are quiet in the Atlantic for now, here is some information if you'd like to prepare for a hurricane. Sometimes they can form quickly and close to the coast, happened to us one time visiting my grandmother who lived near Panama City. I had brought a weather radio with me, and it's the only time I've heard one go off for a Hurricane Warning. She decided to stay and ride it out, we went back home, was when I was a kid. 

But you're much more likely to have to deal with a rip current. So here is a link that everyone should brush up on, including me, before next beach trip. 

And here is another link that is experimental but tries to forecast the rip current risk down at our beaches. 

This Thursday will be the anniversary of Hurricane Camille, one of only four Category 5 hurricanes to ever make landfall in the continental United States. 

And I wanted to take the time to salute Ms. Taylor Sarallo for the outstanding job she did on-air while she worked in meteorology in the Birmingham market. Her personality was also a refreshing change of pace from a lot of broadcast meteorologists . . . not that I'm opinionated or anything. We are lucky to have several good ones in this part of the country, but if you go looking around . . . you'll realize just how fortunate we are. And even around here, some are more equal than others, as the old joke goes. 

(Discussion)

It was a partly cloudy day in the Tennessee Valley with some scattered showers and thunderstorms, several of which got strong enough to require Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. 


They had a couple of tornado reports today up in Ohio. Numerous wind damage reports across Kentucky and Tennessee, mostly of trees and power lines down. Closer to home, there were a couple trees knocked down at Holly Pond, along County Road 798. Highway 79 in Blountsville was impassable in spots due to so many trees down. By the way, a lot of the way people get hurt is driving into trees that have fallen on roads. So please keep an eye out for that, you don't want to run up on one all of a sudden. Also problems on Highway 75 in Oneonta from so many trees and power lines blown down by severe thunderstorm winds. Trees blown down in the city of Gadsden. This has been a stormy summer. 

And I can't get over the dewpoints. Our dewpoint for much of the day in Cullman has hovered around 80 degrees. That is an insane value for mid-August. That's why our Heat Index got up to 115 today. Our actual High temperature was only 90, and the Low was 73. But with that much humidity, the heat takes as much toll on a body as if it really was well over 100 degrees outside. Jasper's Heat Index actually got up to 120 today. Their dewpoint hovered in the low 80's. Actual High temperature was 93 with a Low of 72. Haleyville's Heat Index maxed out at 104 today. Their actual High was 88 after a morning Low of 75. 

The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning to account for that through tomorrow. Our temperatures are nothing unusual for this time of year, but the humidity is something else. 





The heavier thunderstorms have pushed off into Georgia and the Carolinas, and really, the rain has mostly cleared North Alabama, is more down around Birmingham and Central Alabama. We are in a standoff for a few days between high pressure and an approaching frontal boundary. 



The GFS is showing barely any chance of rain around here tomorrow. 


The NAM looks more realistic to me, but it is showing moisture mainly over Northeast Alabama as we get into tomorrow afternoon. We could easily see another Mesoscale Convective System in this Northwest upper-level flow (that you saw with the four maps together, that third map down in the series is the upper-air 500 millibar chart, can see winds aloft are from the Northwest, which is why a lot of storms have come our way lately from Tennessee, Missouri, and Arkansas). My opinion is that it's a roll of the dice. Summer storms are hard for even the best models to forecast with any precision around here. 

Mainly it looks like a hot and humid day with a few clouds, High may actually get up to about 96-97 degrees, and of course the humidity will make it feel like over 100 degrees. Only going to include a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. So that's a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting wet (or stormy). 


The chance of any severe thunderstorms around here is marginal, but with this kind of heat and humidity, can't rule it out for isolated spots that do get a thunderstorm, could pulse up and briefly produce enough wind to bring down trees or power lines. Notice the risk is a little higher for Tennessee counties, because the storms will initially form closer to there. They have more time to weaken before they get into Alabama. 



Monday looks similar. Should have a High in mid-90's, Low in lower 70's, and with a front getting ready to move through, will bump the rain chance up to 30%. 


And again we could see a couple of those storms at least flirt with severe level winds. 



Model guidance has been consistent in allowing that front to pass through our area, with high pressure, some milder and drier air behind it on Tuesday. And we've had several fronts actually make it through here this wild and wacky summer. Usually you have to second-guess model guidance like that. And it looks like our High will only be in the lower 80's for Tuesday, about 83, with a Low in the upper 60's. Mostly sunny skies. If we see any more rain at all, think it will come early in the day. 



Wednesday looks like our driest day. And I don't want to get too carried away, but the latest guidance is showing a Low near 60 that morning, and temperatures struggling to get up past about 80. Regardless of whether that temperature forecast is overdone, looks like a sunny day, and quite the opposite of the muggy air we've had for a while now. 



Should stay sunny for Thursday, High rebounding to about the mid-80's, but Low staying down around 60 or so. 



I think we'll stay mostly sunny on Friday, chance of rain too low to worry about. Technically no summer day is safe from an outside chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm around here. But I'd put the chance at about 10% here, too low to put into a forecast. High should be closer to 90 again, but probably stopping just short of that mark in the upper 80's, Low rebounding to about the mid-60's. 



By Saturday of next week I think we have enough flow from the Gulf of Mexico again to bring back a 20% chance of rain, which means it stays isolated. So the High should be near 90 again, though more likely upper 80's, close shave, and the Low in the upper 60's. 

I do notice the hurricane showing up near Baja California, but you really can't read too much into that seven days in advance, especially with the GFS. Only if you see a trend like that consistently with several models should it become a real cause for concern. And if that happens, the National Hurricane Center will be issuing products about it. 


Speaking of the tropics, you can find information about Typhoon Dora at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It has moved out of the National Hurricane Center's jurisdiction. 

There is another area of broad low pressure, a tropical wave of showers and thunderstorms about 1,400 miles East-Southeast of Hilo, Hawaii that is likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple days or so. 


There is another system behind it that you see on the left side of the image above that will continue to move West-Northwest at 10 miles per hour and is likely to become a tropical depression soon. 

Then another system expected to move parallel to the coast of Southwest Mexico over the next few days is also expected to become a tropical cyclone, not within the next couple days, but over the next seven days. That's the one you see on the right there in yellow, with only a 20% chance of development in the short-term. But the chance of it developing in the long-range, over the next seven days, is 90%. So people in that region will want to keep an eye on that, see what it does. 



Then several hundred miles South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, we do have a tropical depression. Winds are currently at 30 knots, 35 miles per hour. As you can see above, the forecast track keeps is over open water, but does bring it to hurricane strength for a while, then weakens it in the long-range as it moves into a much drier airmass. 


Rainfall totals for the next seven days will probably average between a quarter-inch and a half-inch. Tomorrow and Monday should be most of the rain we get for this forecast period, and even that looks to stay pretty widely scattered. Of course locally heavy showers or storms are possible, but overall, not much rain for most of us during this forecast period. 

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