Thursday, August 3, 2023

Heavy Rain and a Few Storms Possible Through Tomorrow, More Moderate Summer Weather For Next Week

(Forecast)

Friday (High 88, Low 72): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible - could even see an isolated strong storm.

Saturday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 87, Low 66): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Thursday (High 90, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 89, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 90, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Beach Forecast)

Friday (High 98, Low 79): Hot and humid with only a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Saturday (High 98, Low 79): Partly cloudy, hot and humid, but with a 50% chance of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 96, Low 78): Partly cloudy, still pretty hot, with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

(Pronóstico)

Viernes (Alta 88, Baja 72): Mayormente nublado. Numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas son posibles, incluso podría ver una tormenta fuerte aislada.

Sábado (Alta 90, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

Domingo (Alta 91, Baja 71): Parcialmente nublado. Posibles chubascos y tormentas aisladas.

(Perspectiva extendida)

Lunes (Alta 91, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Alta 89, Baja 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Alta 87, Baja 66): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica.

Jueves (Alto 90, Bajo 69): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica.

(Territorio de las hojas de té)

Viernes (Alta 90, Baja 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Alta 89, Baja 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Alta 90, Baja 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Pronóstico de la playa)

Viernes (Alta 98, Baja 79): Caliente y húmedo con solo un 20% de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica.

Sábado (Alta 98, Baja 79): Parcialmente nublado, cálido y húmedo, pero con un 50% de probabilidad de numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Alto 96, Bajo 78): Parcialmente nublado, todavía bastante caluroso, con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

(Notes)

We are under a Flood Watch through tomorrow. 

If you'd like to learn more about weather on your own, might check out NOAA's Jetstream page.

And here is some information about staying safe in rip currents, if you are headed to the beach any time soon. 

(Discussion)




At 1:19 PM in Cullman, we have a thunderstorm moving in. The temperature is 90 degrees. The dewpoint is 77, making the relative humidity 67%. The Heat Index is 104. The pressure is 30.05 inches and falling. Winds are from the Southwest at 7 miles per hour, with gusts to 13 mph. Visibility is great for now though, 10 miles. It is fair and 91 degrees in Jasper, Haleyville has a Northerly breeze of 14 mph and a thunderstorm moving in, 86 degrees there. 






So that mesoscale convective system is already moving through the region, and these storms are staying below severe limits at this point. With that front stalled in our vicinity, we may have other rounds of rain and storms later today. Can't rule out a couple of stronger storms, like we do have sometimes in summer in the heat and humidity, but for the most part, expecting general rain and thunderstorms for most places in the region. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a risk area, but I think that is probably overkill for today. Then again it's been a strange summer, so visit their site if you think they may be right. I just don't feel like screaming "danger" all year round. It's in the Spring months and in November that we have serious concerns with organized severe weather, and I'd rather respect that and keep it separate from routine summer storms, where a few can briefly pulse up and become severe. 




This pattern will hold into tomorrow, when showers and thunderstorms will be likely again, could see several rounds of them. I'd say about a 50/50 shot of any one spot getting wet tomorrow, but where we have rain and thunderstorms, today through tomorrow, they could dump a lot of rain. That's why we are under a flood watch. Going to estimate a High near 88 tomorrow, Low overnight of 72.



On Saturday it looks like the high pressure will reassert itself enough one way or the other that rain chances should decrease slightly, more scattered in nature, about a 40% chance of rain. And the High should be closer to 90, Low more like 71 or 70. 



Sunday looks about the same, scattered rain/thunderstorm chances, High near 90, Low near 70.



And it looks roughly the same for Monday, might decrease rain chance slightly.




Then on Tuesday it looks like we might get enough of a frontal passage to see some cooler temperatures next week, not really cool, just milder considering we're still in summertime. 

So for Tuesday it looks like only scattered rain chances again and a High in the upper 80's, a Low in the upper 60's.



Things will stay unsettled on Wednesday even with that push of milder air, and we could see some more rounds of rain, but it will tend to be more isolated by this time. Expecting a High in the upper 80's again but Low may only be in the mid-60's due to limited moisture, good conditions for overnight cooling.



And by Thursday of next week, rain chances should be minimal, High back up near 90 with the Low in the upper 60's.

Now beyond seven days, it almost gets to the point you might as well read tea leaves or a farmer's almanac, but in the summer, I guess it can't hurt to try a 10-Day Outlook, if only to poke some fun at the TV stations that are trying that again. It seems to go in and out of fashion over the years according to who's in charge at whatever broadcast outlet. 



The GFS sure wants to rush some rain chances back in for next Friday. Will probably temper this with climatology, but if going only by the model, I'd bump the rain chance up to 40%.



And that trend actually continues into Saturday, so maybe I'll show this some respect, along with deferring to climatology, especially since it is summer. The models are not that great with summer rain and storms. I'm actually going to go back through the whole forecast and make sure it is not too reliant on the models, more than on common sense about how the weather behaves around here. Notice the strong heat bubble retreating into the Desert Southwest.



And then rain chances may decrease slightly for Sunday of next weekend. Temperatures next weekend should be High near 90, Low near 70, with minor variations according to rain chances. You'll get the bullet-point fluff above in the forecast, but if you care enough to read down this far, you deserve to know just how speculative this is and how you should always take a 10-Day Outlook with a chunk of salt. 



In the tropics, we do have Hurricane Dora, a major hurricane, which is moving Westward, away from Mexico and expected to pass well South of Hawaii as well. And over the next several days, it is expected to weaken as it encounters a lot of wind shear. But still be a hurricane by next Tuesday. 


And we may see an inch or two of average rainfall totals for this forecast period. Isolated instances of localized flooding are possible, which is why the local National Weather Service offices have posted a Flood Watch for some of our counties. Remember that you never cross water that covers a roadway - turn around, don't drown. Other than the chance of an isolated strong storm or some flooding issues today or tomorrow, this is fairly typical summer stuff. The only thing that might be different is getting a weak cold front about as far South as Birmingham on Tuesday and then having some milder temperatures. We've seen that happen a few times this summer. It has been more active than usual. 

And I don't want to totally downplay the strong storm threat. It is always a good idea, any time of the year, to have a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup, and to be able to move to a reasonably good shelter if a storm becomes severe and is approaching you. That means a small central room (or it can be a hallway) on the lowest floor of a house. It is better if you can shelter in site-built, anchored-down house, even in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Of course you'll remember that in the Spring months, you always hear: Never stay in a mobile home during a Tornado Warning. When our summer storms go severe, they usually produce straight-line winds that damage trees and power lines, and maybe some large hail. But I wouldn't get overly worried about summer storms. If you're going to let it make you really nervous, save your nerves for the month of November. Even when summer storms do reach severe limits, they usually weaken quickly and rain themselves out. So I don't want to ever discourage anybody from taking reasonable precautions, but please don't see it as a big danger thing - ! SEVERE WEATHER ! - like you would in the main severe weather season or in the late Fall when we really do have to watch in case of big problems. Any storm strong enough to blow a tree over on your house is a hazard. And I know someone in another state who had some major property damage this summer, no injuries, from falling trees. But we learn to live with these things. Driving to work or school every day is a lot more dangerous than these routine summer storms. So it's worth a little caution, sure, but I wouldn't want anybody to get worked up over it. Even when we do have the organized severe weather days at other times of the year, it is better if you can stay calm and just do the right things when you need to. I really think the hazard the rest of today and tomorrow will be for flash flooding or river flooding, where the heavier showers or storms hit, or where the same place gets more than one round of rain. I think the risk of storms becoming severe is pretty low, but with that front in the neighborhood, the chance is a little higher than it would be on a typical summer's day.





And it is now 2:38 PM. As I'm finishing up here, I see that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have come out for Central Alabama from this MCS that we thought was under severe limits for North Alabama. 


And we've got trees down in Curry, Oneonta, Walnut Grove, Baileyton, and the roadway is actually blocked by fallen trees at the Apple Grove Road Auction House. Have heard of no injuries, but a lot of times, people do get hurt that way, by coming up on trees in the road that have already fallen. So just passing those reports along. With only a few hours of daylight left, it is unlikely that North Alabama will see much more activity like this, after the rain-cooling earlier, but it's one of those things where you just have to watch the radar trends and the sky in case anything else does try to get started. Having that front stalled out around Memphis really provides a better focus for rain and storms right now. 

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