Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Rain Chances Back in the Forecast, Pretty Seasonable

Wednesday (High 92, Low 67): Mostly sunny. Seasonably hot.

Thursday (High 90, Low 70): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Friday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 92, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Monday (High 89, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 90, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST (Gulf Shores and Thereabouts)

Wednesday (High 96, Low 77): Partly to mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

Thursday (High 93, Low 78): Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. 

Friday (High 94, Low 78): Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. 

Saturday through Tuesday (Highs in the lower-to-mid-90's, Lows in the upper 70's or near 80): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

It is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Erin

I don't know who the poet is at the National Weather Service in Birmingham lately, but I thought I'd try a haiku myself. 

It's still summer, man. 

Sure, it'll rain a little; 

Mainly it stays hot.

And this is neat too: We have two supermoons this month, first one is this evening. 

We had a mostly sunny, seasonably hot and humid day in the Tennessee Valley. We've had some breeze and clouds around at times, but to get any substantial rain, you have to look to the Florida Peninsula. The High in Cullman was 88 with a Low of 70. Jasper saw a High of 91 and a Low of 73. And Haleyville had a High of 89, morning Low of 72. 

Our main two weathermakers remain the high pressure ridge out in the Plains and the longwave trough that covers much of the country including the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. 

Looks like tomorrow the heat bubble will come closer to us with the trough farther away, so expecting a mostly sunny day again, High getting up to 90 or maybe even 91-92. And the Low tonight may dip into upper 60's, about 67-68. 

Then on Thursday it looks like the ridge relaxes and allows some of those Northwest winds aloft down in here from the upper-level trough. And it looks like a Mesoscale Convective System will clip our area, maybe the bulk of the stronger storms passing just to our Northeast. So for Thursday, High near 90, Low near 70 with more humid air, and scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, about a 40% chance. And I wonder if the model is overdoing that, if it should be more like 30%. 

Basically the same thing Friday except looks like a little less moisture in the region, so High may rise to a little above 90 again with slightly lower rain chance.

For Saturday looks like High in lower 90's, rain chance coming back down to about 20%, minimal, typical summer popcorn thunderstorm chance. Might see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night into Sunday morning, but in the summertime, it is getting nitpicky to try to pinpoint things like that. Going into Monday the modelling is more convincing in us getting a shortwave trough passing through, not an actual frontal boundary, so for Sunday, a 30% chance of rain, High in lower 90's looks reasonable. Then bump that up to 40% for Monday, adjust temperatures down a little, High may not get out of the upper 80's with more cloud cover and better chance of rain and thunder. Then things probably settle back down with only a 30% or lower rain chance for next Tuesday. 

There is an area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 600 miles Southeast of Bermuda. This is moving northward, and is expected to become absorbed in a frontal system within the next couple days or so, and is not likely to develop into any kind of a tropical cyclone. 

Rainfall totals around here should be the usual hit-or-miss fare for this month of the year. 

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