Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Staying Dry and Mild For a Few Days, Heat Returning For Next Week

Wednesday (High 80, Low 60): Patchy fog possible in the morning. Sunny and mild. 

Thursday (High 85, Low 62): Sunny. Mild. 

Friday (High 89, Low 64): Sunny. Mild. 

Saturday (High 91, Low 68): Mostly sunny.

Sunday (High 94, Low 71): Mostly sunny.

Monday (High 95, Low 72): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Tuesday (High 95, Low 73): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

We had some showers and thunderstorms last night and this morning, then the winds shifted around to the Northwest about midday today and the skies cleared. And we've been a little breezy but much drier and milder today, High of 82 in Cullman, after the Low this morning (when it was still muggy) of 72. 





That front has cleared the area, sort of unusual for mid-August, and has high pressure moving in behind it. 

With the ground wet and skies clear, we may see some fog overnight into tomorrow morning, unless the winds stay sort of breezy and break it up. 

Tomorrow looks sunny, High near 80, Low near 60, about as good as it gets this time of year. Sunny again on Thursday with high pressure over the region, High mid-80's, Low of 60 or so. By Friday the heat bubble is approaching our region from out West. We should warm sort of gradually but may still rebound to upper 80's or even 90 here on Friday, Low staying in the lower 60's, mid-60's at most. And the air staying dry. Rain chance as close to zero as it is going to get in summer, plenty of sunshine. If you've been needing to get something done outside, this stretch is the best time to do it. 

The GFS and ECMWF are becoming somewhat persistent in showing a tropical cyclone off the coast of Baja California this weekend, so we'll look at that more when we get to the tropics. But let's finish up looking at any semi-interesting details of the local forecast first. 

A trough will push through here, but not expected to bring any rain, so Saturday should be sunny again, High near 90, Low edging into the upper 60's. 

Sunday that heat bubble starts to expand and include our region, and we'll probably see a High more toward the mid-90's, lots of sunshine, and not a lot of humidity coming back, but enough so that the Low is near a much more seasonable 70 degrees again. 

Just looking at the American and European models, people along the California coast may want to watch that tropical storm or hurricane that has the potential to form out that way this weekend. Of course you really have to look at the tropical models to have a better idea what it's going to do. But when I see a pattern on both global models, even several days out, it gets my attention. Especially since I remember it being a feature on the GFS a few days ago. 

Monday and Tuesday around here, looks like mostly sunny skies, High in mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. Will bring back a minimal 20% chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Should be enough humidity to support that. 


We've got a tropical wave producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles West/Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving West/Northwest through the Tropical Atlantic at 15 miles per hour. If it develops any over the next week, it should be slow. 

And we've got another one coming off the coast of Africa, West coast, tonight into tomorrow morning. Movement is expected to be West/Northwest, and it has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. The reason it says 0% chance on the map is that it is not going to develop within the next 48 hours. The chance of it developing after that, over about a week's time, is 30%.


We do have two tropical cyclones in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Greg and Hurricane Fernanda. 



And Tropical Storm Greg is expected to maintain its strength over open waters, passing several hundred miles South of the Hawaiian Islands, before dissipating this weekend. They don't need a hurricane on land out that way, I don't reckon. They are still trying to clean up after those wildfires. 



Hurricane Fernanda is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days as it moves West at 10 knots. And this weekend, it is expected to weaken to a depression and then dissipate in a cooler, stabler airmass before it gets to the Hawaiian Islands. 


What I would be watching, anywhere along the coast of Mexico and Baja California, is this system coming up behind it. It looks like this is what the GFS and ECMWF were picking up on as potentially being a hurricane by this weekend. It should be a tropical depression within the next couple days, then we'll see, but the environment is right for it to intensify, and it is expected to move West/Northwest, about parallel to the coast of South and Southwest Mexico. 



The tropical model guidance does not look overly alarming at this point though. It does bring it up to where it would affect Baja California though, and most models bring it up to hurricane strength, probably staying a "Category One", which would be winds of about 74-95 mph. The reason I'd really watch this is because of the terrain out there. Even if it is still only a tropical depression or tropical storm, if people on the Southwest coast of Mexico are close enough to get heavy rains/high winds, then that can result in mudslides in some of that rocky land. And if it does make hurricane strength as it gets close to Baja California, then some people could be in for a sort of rough ride. Skimming where other hurricanes have hit that area before, it sounds like they are pretty good about getting people into shelters. Letting them know that's available. But even thinking about if it weakens and moves along the coast of California (can't remember which model was showing that, maybe the European), all that heavy rain and gusty winds could cause some problems for people in that very different terrain than what we have in places like Alabama or Florida. These folks have a different set of concerns they have to watch for. This may turn out to not be that big a deal, but if I knew someone who lived out there or was taking a vacation there, I'd definitely tell them to keep an eye on it. So if you happen to be reading this from out there, please do stay tuned to the latest forecasts from your local weather service offices. And depending on what happens, get to a shelter if you need to. Some people can shelter at home, but others may need a public shelter. And if this thing does become a hurricane, moving in that direction, I'm pretty sure shelters will be set up somewhere. And at this point there is a lot of speculation. But if you go under a Hurricane Watch or Warning, then you'll know, things are looking more serious. 

Around here we are mostly staying dry. Some of us will probably see no rain at all for this forecast period. It'll be mild the rest of this workweek, then we get more to seasonal temperatures, hot and pretty dry.

By the way, James Spann and Ari Hallmark are doing a book signing at the Karma Coffee House in downtown Cullman this Saturday morning, lasting until Noon. Ms. Hallmark was the survivor of the family that was killed by the Cullman/Arab tornado in 2011 and has written a book about it. Of course James wrote a book about working the event and also an autobiography. And that's a great, chill place to be. 

Just thought of this to add, but the Arab weather radio transmitter (Channel 6) has been working again for several days. The Cullman transmitter (Channel 3) has not been announced as being back in order yet, but it working fine from my weather radio already. Thanks as always to the people who keep these things running. It has been a rough summer for storms. 

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