Saturday, September 2, 2023

Fairly Mild, Sunny, Dry Pattern Most of This Week

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 86, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Some fog possible in the morning. 

Labor Day (High 87, Low 64): Mostly sunny. Staying fairly mild with low humidity.

Tuesday (High 89, Low 65): Mostly sunny. Warm with low humidity.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 91, Low 67): Sunny.

Thursday (High 93, Low 69): Sunny.

Friday (High 90, Low 70): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 87, Low 64): Mostly sunny. 

(Beach Forecast)

Sunday (High 88, Low 74): Thunderstorms.

Labor Day (High 90, Low 76): Partly to mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. 

Tuesday (High 93, Low 75): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

Rest of Week (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in mid-70's): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 86, Mínima 66): Mayormente soleado. Posible niebla por la mañana.

Día Laboral (Máxima 87, Mínima 64): Mayormente soleado. Mantenerse bastante templado con poca humedad.

Martes (Máxima 89, Mínima 65): Mayormente soleado. Cálido con poca humedad.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 91, Mínima 67): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 93, Mínima 69): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 87, Mínima 64): Mayormente soleado.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 74): Tormentas eléctricas.

Día Laboral (Máxima 90, Mínima 76): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con numerosas lluvias y tormentas eléctricas posibles.

Martes (Máxima 93, Mínima 75): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Resto de la Semana (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, mínimas a mediados de los 70 grados): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has already scheduled SKYWARN classes ahead of our secondary severe weather season, which is usually the month of November. They are also holding open house on October 14th. They are down by the Shelby County Airport in Calera. 

If you are headed to the beach any time soon, always good to review this information about how to stay safe if you encounter any rip currents. I know of a family who got caught in one in California, and best I remember, the daughter was the only one who got out herself, two parents had to be rescued by a lifeguard. So this is no longer an abstract thing for me, I know somebody it happened to. 

We just had a major hurricane hit Florida again, and the hurricane season is far from being over. So here is some information about hurricane preparedness

The National Weather Service in Huntsville, along with the offices in Nashville, Memphis, and Morristown, have put together a page about weather preparedness in general, bilingual, in English and in Spanish. Following their lead, I am brushing up on my Spanish a little and trying some forecasts in both languages here at times. I figure as much Mexican food as I still eat, I might as well keep the language alive in my head. Maybe somebody will find some use for such forecasts. 

Hurricane Idalia really did a number on Florida, mainly in the Big Bend region, but also at Crystal River along the West coast, where they had a bad storm surge. I was surprised at the low death toll, but a paper from Tampa has written that more people heeded the forecasts and took precautions, including evacuation, because of Hurricane Ian last year. 

President Biden is going to look at the damage from the hurricane, and it sounds like he and Governor DeSantis have not suddenly developed any warm fuzzies for each other. What else is new in the world?

Well actually, interesting timing, Jimmy Buffett has died. So it's a holiday weekend. How about turn off the news, have a margarita or another favorite beverage (my main addiction is hot cocoa year-round, more flavor than coffee) and appreciate all the good music he gave us. Thinking of his music makes me wish I was on some beach, somewhere. 

In all seriousness, a lot of people are having it rough in Florida after that hurricane, without power, some without their homes still intact. I'm going to provide several links about disaster relief here, but I urge you to screen them carefully. Hate to have to say it, but a lot of people pocket the money instead of using all of it to help survivors when things like this happen. I've even heard of it happening from some of the main reputable organizations sometimes. I don't have the time and energy to try to figure out who's doing things straight and who's exploiting the situation. So if you donate some money, please do your best to make sure you can trust the people to use it for what it's really meant to be used for. Here is a page from FEMA where people can apply for disaster relief. Here's what CNN has to say about it. Here's what FOX has to say about it. And here's an article from USA Today. Personally, if you find a place you feel good about, I think it's fine to just throw them a dollar or a few dollars. Because those little bits add up. Times are tough for a lot of people, but we're still in this thing called life together. A major hurricane for them is like a major tornado outbreak around here. 

(Discussion)








We have a few showers left around in the Southeast and in North Alabama this morning. And most of us are overcast. It is 72 degrees in Cullman, with a dewpoint of 64, which makes the relative humidity 78%. The visibility is good though, 10 miles. Winds have been variable at 7 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 13 mph. The pressure is 30.24 inches and steady. It is overcast and 73 in Jasper. Overcast and 69 in Haleyville. 

Elsewhere around the area, Fort Payne is overcast and 74. Decatur is overcast and 70. Huntsville is overcast and 71. Across the Tennessee border, skies have already cleared in Fayetteville, and they have warmed to 77 degrees. Winchester is also at 77 but still overcast. 

That weak low pressure system down around the Gulf Coast will continue to bring us clouds and chances for isolated rain this morning, but as we go through the afternoon, high pressure with drier air will work into the region from the Northeast. And we'll see skies becoming mostly sunny. We'll probably only get up to about 80 degrees today. 



Tomorrow also looks mostly sunny, though we might see some fog overnight. High should be about 85 or 86, Low near 66. 



Labor Day also looks mostly sunny, High getting into the upper 80's. Model guidance keeps trending warmer. Low should be about 65, since humidity levels will be low. 



That high pressure ridge is hanging around a while. Looks like upper 80's and mid-60's again for Tuesday.



Looks like sunny skies again for Wednesday. Could see some showers in Tennessee, but more likely in the Northern half of the state. Look for a High near 90, Low still in mid-60's.



And for Thursday, sunny skies again, high pressure holding around here. High of about 90 or so, Low in the mid-to-upper-60's.



But the ridge will relax, retrograde farther out West in the extended period. By Friday we may see at least isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast again with a High close to 90, Low in the upper 60's.



Then looks like dry conditions may return Saturday with a High near 90, Low near 70 or maybe again in upper 60's. 




We'll have a cold front coming through between Friday and Saturday. So I think I'll mention scattered rain, about a 40% chance, for Friday. With a clearing trend on Saturday. At the moment, doesn't look like this front will do much besides bring us a chance for rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures probably not going to drop sharply behind it. But you know what, I double-checked some stuff, mostly MOS temperature trends. And I think it's reasonable to forecast a High in upper 80's, Low back down mid or even lower 60's for Saturday with clearing skies. 

Not doing the 10-day outlook thing even as a joke this time. That gets so silly after a while. We're getting into Fall, when things are not as boring and predictable as Summer. Of course, this summer was not a typical one anyway. 



The tropics are quieting down a little bit, although we need to watch that latest tropical wave to the South/Southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Over about the next week as it moves into the Central Tropical Atlantic, it is likely to become a tropical depression. 



There is more bark than bite to the tropics right now though. Tropical Storm Katia is expected to dissipate over open waters by Monday. 



Tropical Storm Gert's second wind is not expected to last long either. 



Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia will continue to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda through early tomorrow (Sunday). And while it is expected to turn North and gradually weaken through this coming week, it will continue to cause swells that make for dangerous rip currents and very unfriendly surf conditions along the East Coast of the U.S. mainland. 


Not expecting much rainfall over this next week, hardly any, but we'll watch things on Friday with that front coming through. 

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