Friday, January 12, 2024

Accumulating Snow Possible Monday

Saturday (High 46, Low 25): Sunny. Cold and breezy.

Sunday (High 39, Low 22): Mostly sunny. Staying cold and breezy.

Martin Luther King Day (High 33, Low 23): Cloudy, breezy, and very cold. Scattered snow showers are possible, and the snow could accumulate. 

Tuesday (High 26, Low 15): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of lingering showers. 

Wednesday (High 30, Low 7): Sunny.

Thursday (High 43, Low 18): Partly cloudy.

Friday (High 39, Low 24): Mostly sunny. 

Skies are still overcast in Cullman with at temperature of 55. The dewpoint is 52 degrees, making the relative humidity 88%. Winds are from the Southwest at 10 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 20 mph. The pressure is 29.49 inches and rising slowly. 

Jasper is also overcast with a temperature of 57 degrees. The dewpoint is 54, making the relative humidity 88%. Winds are from the Southwest at 8 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 16 mph. The pressure is 29.50 inches and rising slowly. 

And it is overcast in Haleyville. The temperature is 54. The dewpoint is 51, making the relative humidity 90%. Winds are from the Southwest at 12 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 18 mph. The pressure is 29.49 inches/997.6 millibars, and steady. 


We did not have any severe weather from this system, although they did back in Mississippi this morning. And there were some damaging wind and hail reports back in Arkansas last night. 

Around here, we did have some trees down here and there across the region of North Alabama into Southern Tennessee, also some power outages, including a lot reported by Huntsville utilities. They had over 2,000 customers without power earlier today, but now are down to only about 800 or so. And they are working on restoring that. Major hats off to everyone doing such work during a time like this. We have some bitterly cold air on the way tonight, and the fun will only increase next week as we get a couple of blasts of arctic air and some potential for snow as well. 

A Winter Storm Watch has already been posted for much of Arkansas and surrounding areas served by the National Weather Service in Memphis. 







This occluded front is about through with us, and we can turn our attention to the system on Monday and the brutally cold blast of air that is about to affect us next week. Our winds have died down to the point I'd describe it more as breezy than really windy now. And like I say, power is being restored to a lot of people as soon as possible, before we get the first wave of cold air tonight. And the rain is exiting the Northeast parts of the area now. We did not have any problems with severe weather. The air did indeed stay too cool and stable for that. 



Tomorrow we will have high pressure in place. It will still be a little breezy at times, with winds taking on more of a westerly component. Skies will be sunny, and we'll start the day in the mid-20's, warming to about the mid-40's. 



Then on Sunday we'll start the day down in the lower 20's and only struggle to warm up to about 40 degrees. We'll have some clouds moving in ahead of this next approaching system, but overall the skies should be mostly sunny. And we'll still have a little bit of a breeze, so you have to think about the wind chill factor too. This is going to feel colder than the thermometer shows, and it also increases the chance that people or pets exposed to this cold for too long could be in danger. 




And now the GFS is showing snow showers moving into Northwest Alabama and much of Tennessee by midday Monday, this is valid at Noon. 



The NAM shows a slower timing, more toward the evening for the onset of snow, but at 72 hours out or more, its reliability can suffer. The ECMWF looked about the same as the GFS, only minor differences that I decided did not matter enough to show. 




I did find the GEM look interesting, potential for snowflakes all the way from Monday morning through to Tuesday morning. 


And the GFS snow depth forecast as of now is showing basically a dusting to an inch for North Central Alabama, then about 1-2 inches for up to the AL/TN state line, about 2-4 inches for Southern Tennessee, and about 4-6 inches for Middle Tennessee. At least that is my reading of this map above. 

Going to forecast a High in the lower 30's for Monday and a Low in the lower to mid-20's. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I think for North Alabama up into Southern and other parts of Tennessee, the precipitation will be all snow. I guess we might see some light sleet mixed in there, but the way things are trending, I am starting to think we'll see mostly or all snow falling around here. If there is a wintry mix with ice, I think it will stay to our South and West. 

Will trim the chance of snow to 20% on Tuesday, and it will probably be over before Noon. High in the 20's, Low in the 10's. 

Wednesday we will see high pressure return and bring us sunny skies, but we'll still only get up to about 30 degrees for the High, the Low likely down in the single digits. 



We do have another front coming through Thursday and Friday. It looks like it may be a dry one. 

By the way, it may take until Thursday or Friday for any snow to start melting. And the temperatures could be even colder if we do have a snowpack in the region. And this is a potentially dangerous cold snap. We'll be below freezing from Sunday night until about midday or Thursday afternoon, according to the latest forecast trends. So that's a 3-4 day stretch of bitter cold, which we are not used to around here. You do need to be prepared for the severe cold. 

Will mention some clouds coming back on Thursday with a High of 40 or so, holding off on any precipitation chances for now. And the Low should rebound into the upper 10's. 

Then clouds likely on the decrease Friday behind the front, High may drop back into 30's, Low should rebound into 20's with the extra moisture. 



Concern is growing for the potential for accumulating snow in North Alabama and more so into Southern Middle Tennessee, and really all across the state of Tennessee, with this system coming in Monday. 



Regardless of what happens with that, confidence is very high in severely cold conditions next week. The wind chill factor will even make it feel below zero at times, and for any people or pets caught without proper warmth for extended periods of time, there will be a serious risk of hypothermia. This is also a time you want to make sure you protect any plants and your water pipes, and make sure that any sources of heating your home are safe ones. 

Nothing wrong with stocking up at the grocery store, but if you do, please consider things that make more sense than milk. Nonperishable foods, bottles of water or other drinks that don't spoil, basic first-aid supplies or medicines your family might need, or even things like a sleeping bag or a hand-held can opener make a lot more sense, if you're really prepping for a winter weather situation. Even dollar store workers understand this and roll their eyes when people come in trying to buy all the milk and bread. But I guess it's amusing . . . vaguely. 

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