The morning round of rain really stabilized the atmosphere, and it is going to be hard for it to recover enough to support any of this afternoon or evening's thunderstorms becoming severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept trimming the severe weather outlook area farther to the East so that now is is for places like Huntsville, Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Guntersville, Arab, maybe Holly Pond down to Blountsville, certainly includes Gadsden. Fayetteville and Winchester are included in the risk on the Tennessee side of the border. The risk is East of I-65.
And the reason for that is that the Eastern counties are the only places with any hope of the air destabilizing before this line of showers and storms back in Mississippi catches up. From now to about 7 PM there is a very low risk of an isolated storm or two within that outlooked area reaching severe limits.
On the off-chance you were to get a warning today, just remember the basic ideas:
You want to be in a sturdy house or other building anchored to the ground if possible, rather than in a mobile home.
Get to a small room or hallway on the lowest floor, and try to make it near the center of the house if you can, instead of at the edge of the house. Make sure you stay away from any windows, just in case the winds could break the glass.
But this risk is really low.
Our wind advisory from the brief wake low this morning was allowed to expire on time.
But a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Alabama, including Walker, Winston, and Blount Counties. Which are all counties that border Cullman. We do have more rain coming this afternoon and evening.
If any storms really fire up, it should be East of the interstate, probably in far Northeast Alabama or adjacent parts of Tennessee.
And it does bear watching up that way, because dewpoints are already recovering into the 60's while that line of rain approaching the Alabama state line.
It is a borderline situation, but we do have just enough breaks in the clouds to allow some marginal destabilization. The wind shear is also strong in Northeast Alabama.