Sunday, May 5, 2024

Warm and Unsettled Until Late in the Week, Wednesday Night Could Get a Little Stormy

Monday (High 83, Low 64): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday (High 85, Low 64): Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday (High 87, Low 66): Mostly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the day. Rain and thunderstorms are likely at night, and some thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

Thursday (High 80, Low 69): Rain likely - a few storms still possible. 

Friday (High 74, Low 62): Gradual clearing with a 40% chance of lingering showers in the morning. 

Saturday (High 70, Low 50): Sunny. 

Sunday (High 72, Low 48): Sunny. 

Overall it was a partly to mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, though we've had some clouds and mostly light rain move in this evening and tonight. Got some heavier showers moving through far Northeast Alabama around Scottsboro and stretching back up into Middle Tennessee. Not seeing much lightning with these. But rain chances were expected to ramp up tonight. 

The High in Cullman was 84 after a morning Low of 61. Jasper saw a downright hot day, more like summer, 88 degrees for the High, 61 degrees for the Low. And Haleyville had a High of 84, Low of 59. 

We have a shortwave trough axis just west of Memphis ahead of the actual front out in the Mid-South and stretching into Texas, also up into the Ohio Valley. It's going to be an interesting few days across much of the country. 

Tomorrow I'm going to lean toward the NAM guidance more than the GFS for rain chances, thinking the truth is in between the two. Will keep a 30% rain chance in there, but as far as any widespread rain, should be over after tonight. Looking for a High of about 83, Low of about 63-64. 

Tomorrow looks like a severe weather outbreak may be setting up for the Plains (yes, another one). Especially for much of Kansas and Oklahoma, the risk for supercell thunderstorms is substantial. And these severe thunderstorms could produce tornadoes as well as very large hail and wind damage. Some of the storm damage looks like it could be significant with this system. 

On Tuesday the leftovers from that system will mainly affect from about Arkansas up into the Ohio River Valley. About the Northwestern half of Tennessee may be at risk for some organized severe thunderstorms from this, places like Nashville back to Memphis. For Southern Middle Tennessee down into far Northern Alabama, the risk looks more marginal for a few isolated thunderstorms that could reach severe limits, the main threat being for damaging straight-line winds. 

And it really doesn't look beyond the very low-end severe thunderstorm risk you'd have on a typical summer's day around here. Until this front ends up passing through the area later in the week, this pattern really looks summerlike. 

And I'm really not impressed with our overall chances for rain and storms around here on Tuesday, looks like it'll stay low, about 20-30%, so pretty isolated. The High should be about 84-85, the Low in the lower to mid-60's. 

Then on Wednesday, the severe weather risk does include the Tennessee Valley, although storms are expected to fire up earlier in the day in the Mid-South and Midwest (especially Missouri and track up into the Ohio Valley. The activity for us in the Tennessee Valley will likely come later in the evening and at night. By that point it looks like we'll be dealing with a mesoscale convective system, sort of like the ones we get in the summer from out that way, where the storms are weakening as they move into our region, but can still pack a punch. This mainly looks like a threat for damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail with any storms that can sustain and reach severe limits by the time they get here. But we are still in the month of May, the last month of our main severe weather season each year. 

And with that cold front approaching the region finally, we'll have to keep an eye on things Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It looks like the main focus for organized severe weather will stay to our Northwest, but a decaying MCS can cause us some issues even in the summer months. And here ahead of an approaching cold front in May, it could cause a few more than it usually does then. Just something to keep an eye on, doesn't look like a really big threat overall. Always good to have a weather radio on alert with battery backup before you go to bed. And just have a basic severe weather safety plan, so if you get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, you can move to a small centralized room on the lowest floor of a sturdy house. 

During the day Wednesday, rain chances should stay low, about 20-30%, and I'm leaning toward 20% here still. The High will likely edge up into the upper 80's, the Low in about the mid-60's. 

Then on Thursday, rain should hang around enough to knock the High back down to the lower 80's, or close to 80 for many of us, the overnight Low between Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 60's, pretty soupy airmass. 

Looks like Friday will be the day of our frontal passage. We've been in this locked-up summerlike pattern for a while now. And it has been very unkind to our neighbors out West. Looks like we'll have scattered leftover rain about the first half of the day, then clearing in the afternoon, the High only in about the mid-70's and the Low near 60. 

Behind the front, high pressure will move in from the West and bring back sunny skies Saturday and Sunday. Highs will not get much above 70, and the Lows near 50. Actually Saturday night and Sunday morning, some of us could dip into the upper 40's. It'll probably be the last time we see those kind of temperatures until at least September or October. And it'll feel kind of strange right after this summer preview we've had. 

By the way, everyone is ready for an active tropical season this year, with really warm waters already in place. There was a weak tropical disturbance a week or two ago that didn't really develop, but once we get into June and July, will have to keep an eye on that. The National Hurricane Center has actually made a second list of names in case we run out this season, as we have in some recent years. 

Rainfall totals will average about two inches, with isolated amounts closer to three inches possible. 

P.S. 10:12 PM Note - After backtracking and looking at radar, special weather statements, I see we did have more than light rain, had several thunderstorms, some that got strong but stayed under severe limits, earlier this afternoon and evening. I flaked out this afternoon and managed to sleep through the action. I often find rain peaceful anyway. That is a good reason to keep a weather radio around though. You can set it to only alert for your specific county. That way if a storm does get out of hand some night, or just some day you've zonked for a while, it'll let you know about it. 

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