Thursday, June 6, 2024

A Shot of Drier Air to Start Weekend

FORECAST:

Today (High 86): Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the morning. 

Friday (High 83, Low 64): Sunny. Low humidity.

Saturday (High 84, Low 58): Mostly sunny. Low humidity.

Sunday (High 83, Low 62): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 85, Low 65): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 86, Low 60): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 86, Low 64): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 88, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

READING TEA LEAVES:

Friday (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Saturday (High 87, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Today (High 84, Low 76): Thunderstorms. 

Friday (High 87, Low 75): Sunny.

Saturday (High 86, Low 73): Sunny.

Sunday (High 86, Low 77): Sunny. 

Rest of Week (Highs in 80's, Lows in 70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

DISCUSSION:

We had a partly cloudy day in the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and then some rain and thunderstorms in the evening, some of which became severe with damaging wind gusts.

We had a High of 84 in Cullman, Low of 68. The Jasper observations are back but for such a limited time range, can't really do anything with 'em. Haleyville had a High of 83 and Low of 67. 

Huntsville had a High of 85, Low of 70. 

Nashville had a High of 87, Low of 72. 





That front will finish pushing through the area today. We don't get a lot of cold fronts once we get into June most years. 



The GFS shows that the rain will be starting to taper off in the early afternoon, so most of the lingering rain chances ahead of the front should be Thursday morning. I'm writing this a little after Midnight. 


The NAM makes it look like we'll have limited rain chances. 

And I'm only going to keep a 20% chance for isolated rain in the forecast for the morning hours. Should see a High of about 85 or 86. 



High pressure will move in behind the front on Friday. We'll see sunny skies, a High of about 82-83, morning Low about 64-65.



High pressure holds on Saturday and we'll have mostly sunny skies again, High in the lower 80's, Low in the upper 50's. 



Then looks like another frontal boundary tries to push in here on Sunday. At this point I'm only going to bring the rain chance up to 40% because of the time of year. I think the models are picking up on a trend here, but fronts do run into some resistance in the Southeast this time of year. High in lower 80's, Low in lower 60's. 



Looks like the front dissipates as it moves through the region Monday. But of course these fronts this time of year lay down boundaries for other random showers and thunderstorms to form. So will keep a 30% chance of rain for Monday, High should be lower-to-mid-80's, Low in mid-60's. 



Tuesday even though the models want to keep us dry and we have that high pressure in the Gulf, this is a pretty typical early summer look. Will keep a 20% chance of isolated rain/thunder in there. And I don't really buy how the model guidance wants to take us down to 80 degrees or slightly lower for Monday/Tuesday. I think the High for Tuesday will be more toward the mid-80's, the Low in lower 60's. 



For Wednesday maintaining a 20% chance of rain, which is the typical summer chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorms, where most places don't get anything. High in mid-80's, Low in mid-60's. 



This forecast had a terrible interruption that turned out to be a big bunch of nothing. I hate this neighborhood these days. Don't blame the lady who moved her family away. 

Be that as it may, next Thursday looks like more of that same summer pattern. The GFS keeps hinting at tropical mischief in the Gulf, but it does that a lot this time of year, and it hardly ever verifies at this time range. So I wouldn't even worry about it. 

High Thursday should be in the upper 80's, Low in the mid-60's.



Then Friday of next week is getting into the land of basically tea leaf reading. 

So the hint of something tropical in the Gulf is even more dubious. The GFS likes to do that, you might as well know, if you weren't here last summer. 

Looks like upper 80's for the High, Low in mid/upper 60's, a 20% chance of rain. 



Saturday also looks like only low-end typical summer rain chances. I don't think the GFS is right in the idea of a tropical system in the Gulf, but it could be right about a little more Gulf moisture, so 30% chance of rain might be reasonable here, High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. 


And by Sunday the 16th I do not buy the GFS guidance anymore at all. Just going to cut the rain chance back to 20% and forecast a High near 90, Low near 70. 

And as I'm looking over everything again, maybe we do get a shot of drier air briefly Monday or Tuesday of this coming week, but I don't think it'll be as pronounced as this first shot even if we do. This time of year, a lot of times the model guidance, you have to take with a grain of salt. But may put the overnight Low at about 60 to adjust for that. Not going to knock the High temperature way down for Tuesday though. 


And our rainfall totals for the next week should average less than a half inch. 

Now for some personal ramblings, definitely not pleasant ones, before I close this out. I don't really do trigger warnings. If you read my stuff long enough, you'll eventually be offended by something, even if it's a tasteless joke. And I can't avoid that even when I'm trying. But as a gesture of common courtesy, I'll let you know, what I'm about to go into is not pleasant, lighthearted reading. 

Last week, the U.S. Marshals came knocking in my neighborhood, looking for a fugitive named Rodney Dale Kilgore. It was very difficult to find information about him online, and I wasn't able to get anyone to help me out there. A friend of mine even called local law enforcement and got a standard brushoff line, that nothing could be confirmed or denied, and that the Marshals did business separately anyway. At least that's what he told me. I didn't hear the call, but that's how it was described to me. And it matches my experience well enough in trying to find out anything by e-mail, not only locally, but from Georgia. 

The way I finally confirmed I had found the right person, in the Georgia Bureau of Investigation's sex offender database, was that one of his pictures from there hit the press a day or two ago, think it was Tuesday. 

The whole situation has nearly driven me insane, because while the crimes I could find for him online seemed only somewhat concerning (obscene communications online, unlawful possession of a firearm by a felon), what I was told the marshals described was worse. And via other word of mouth by people in the area, some of whom said they were members of his family, this guy reminded me of a particularly vicious sexual abuser way back in my family tree, a "man" who fortunately died when I was still a little kid, too young to understand what he was like. He was a Baptist preacher and lived back in those "good old days" some people seem so eager to go back to. When people like that were rarely held accountable anyway, and it was a lot easier to hide behind being a holy man. A lot of problems in my family resulted from that man raping his daughter and her (misguided) attempts to deal with it. I felt the aftershocks of it even in our household . . . I can largely thank that bastard who died when I was probably less than eight years old for having such a broken home, and where the madness never ended, even after my parents finally did get divorced. I had a brother who literally became a foreign exchange student and moved to Japan for a while mainly to get away from all the lunacy in our family. I was glad to see him come back at first, but now think he should have stayed over there and built a new life. He hasn't spoken to me much in nearly ten years now, but from what I've heard of his life now, I really wish he had stayed in Japan. At least he was happier overall. He might have married the Japanese woman he was dating and had a wonderful life with her. But he came back to the madness. And in my opinion, his life circled the drain from there. One person who went to church with my father said that it sounded like he was the only member of my family who had any sense, because he got away from it. She said that before he came home. 

So this situation pushed all my worst buttons. And it was a lot worse because I couldn't find much reliable or trustworthy information, or get much of anybody to talk to me sensibly about it. Like I say, my first confirmation that I'd found the same guy the marshals were looking for . . . was when local news outlets ran the story with his picture a couple days ago. 

Tonight I made an emergency call on behalf of an old woman in the neighborhood who thought she was hearing a person coughing or moving around (not the first night she's heard something . . . the cough was a different night, now that I think of it . . . but I am really tired by now) in what should be a vacant apartment next door to her. The cops checked it out, and there was nothing. Nobody was in there. 

That was how this forecast discussion got interrupted. That woman called me because she heard the noises again, and I tried to help out . . . 

Someone on the NextDoor site seemed to think I was overblowing his crimes, from what I posted yesterday, since the only thing that came up via the GBI was obscene communications over the internet. I certainly have not tried to. I am not a fan of things being overblown these days, in weather or in anything else. And it does happen a lot. But I've heard from the more sensible people around here that he is dangerous and has a history of more serious wrongdoing here in Alabama. One person even warned a lady in the neighborhood not to approach him if she did see him, to definitely keep her distance and call 911 if she saw him. That's despite the fact that a sex offender search for this guy in Alabama turns up nothing. I assessed what information I had logically, and I also trusted my gut feeling, since the information was frustratingly limited. This is not a person I would ever trust. 

And by the way, I did have to deal with a sexual abuser outside of my family later in life, as a very young man. Even in the modern day, he was able to hide behind a sort of good-guy badge facade. The less details said about that, the better. I was able to terminate my association with him so that I never heard from him again. And he did face some minor consequences for the one time he got caught doing such things. I genuinely hate such people, even when I'm calm or in good spirits. I think those countries that flog them in ways that leave permanent scarring have the right idea. 

I try to be extra-careful these days, because I've seen numerous examples in the celebrity world where allegations turned out to be badly exaggerated or just plain false. So that's a whole other can of worms to deal with. It can happen to ordinary people too. The one I still can't get over is Johnny Depp. I kept expecting there to at least be a little evidence against him, thinking it just got exaggerated. I figured he did something, even if it wasn't as bad as the claims. But I don't remember seeing anything that pointed to him being an abusive spouse, let alone a rapist. When the evidence was all examined. 

Since I got off on that tangent, I have to laugh at how one woman I know told me that even though he didn't physically abuse his wife, he was still abusive "because he wasn't very enjoyable to be married to . . . he just stayed drunk all the time and didn't do anything she found enjoyable."

So I definitely get it when people don't want charges to get exaggerated. I hate to see that too. And I sure didn't try to do it. 

After tonight's exhausting and humiliating experience, that total false alarm, I think I'm going to just try to put it out of my mind. The guy looks very distinctive, and I'd know that face if I saw him out somewhere. 


This is the picture the media is passing around. You can find several more via the Georgia Bureau of Investigation if it interests you. There are some where he's not wearing glasses. 

I hope he is caught soon. 

Certainly if you see him anywhere, call 911. And it may be common sense, but make sure you're at a safe distance where the fugitive could not hear you making the call. 

The cat drama tonight did not amuse me after I realized I'd made a frivolous call to emergency services. It was not intended to be frivolous; if this guy had really been in that apartment, then I'd consider it very dangerous for the old woman who lived next door. If this guy has a history of rape, as I have been told, then no old woman needs him camping out next door. I had no way of knowing, and I feel like an idiot for having taken it so seriously . . . only to realize there was nothing to it. 

This guy was not in that vacated apartment. 

I don't know what that woman keeps hearing, or thinks she is hearing. 

But the cats have acted like complete idiots. Stormy started yowling her head off after seeing me go out and come back, wanting to go outside maybe. I opened the windows for her, which did not help. 

Then when I closed them, she scratched me pretty good. I picked up a pillow and let her attack it instead. By this time, I was in a very foul mood. Some of the things I said to her were not nice at all, and her cat language as she continued to assault that pillow didn't sound nice at all either. 

Since then, she has been even more hostile to Salem than usual. And it has put his nerves on edge and set him to bouncing around the place like he did last year before he broke his hip, just jumping in and out of windows, not caring how much damage he might do to the blinds in the process. 

So as I wind this down tonight, I feel like I hate everyone, and everything, including my cats. 

So there ya' go. 


We did have a lot of damaging wind reports today with those storms that moved through in the evening. There was a time when most the counties of North Alabama were under a severe thunderstorm warning. And I was surprised to see that Marion County, AL and Itawamba County, MS were under a tornado warning earlier. 

I guess these seasons don't always transition neatly. Spring is slow to let go this year maybe. The cold front allowed the storms to be more organized. Usually if storms become severe from about June through September (sometimes as late as October), they tend to be pretty isolated. Today, or now it's yesterday, was one of those weird days where things got a little crazy. 

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