Thursday, June 20, 2024

Hot Summer Pattern, Keeping an Eye on Tropics

FORECAST:

Friday (High 93, Low 67): Sunny. Hot and humid. 

Saturday (High 95, Low 69): Sunny. Hot and humid. 

Sunday (High 96, Low 71): Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 95, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 94, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 92, Low 72): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Thursday (High 91, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 87, Low 78): Sunny. Dangerous rip currents. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 77): Sunny. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 79): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. 

Next Week (Highs ~90, Lows ~80): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 93, Mínima 67): Soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

Sábado (Máxima 95, Mínima 69): Soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

Domingo (Máxima 96, Mínima 71): Mayormente soleado. Caliente y húmedo.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 95, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Máxima 94, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 91, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 87, Mínima 78): Soleado. Peligrosas corrientes de resaca.

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 77): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 79): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvia o tormenta eléctrica aislada.

Próxima Semana (Máximas ~90, Mínimas ~80): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

NOTES:

May 2024 was the warmest on record. And these record-level sea temperatures are a big reason our hurricane season is expected to be active this year.  

It is good to keep up with rip currents this time of year if you're going to the beach, so here is a handy reference on that

Next week will be lightning safety week. The basic rule of thumb is that if you're close enough to a storm to hear thunder, you need to get inside. 

And the fugitive who was recently roaming around in Cullman was apprehended and taken back into custody in Birmingham the other day. I try to follow up on these things when I notice them, sort of like Amber Alerts, you'd be surprised how many of them have "happy endings" where nobody got seriously hurt. And as far as I know, that was the case here, sounds like nobody got hurt. 

DISCUSSION:




Skies were partly to mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today. The High in Cullman was 90 after a morning Low of 70. (At least if you round to the nearest whole number. At some point I probably need to ask a meteorologist whether or not this is the correct approach. The format of the observations recently changed to show the exact temperatures, which for Cullman today topped out at 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit and bottomed out at 69.8 degrees. Which I rounded to 90 and 70 degrees.) Jasper saw a High of 93 and Low of 66. The High was 90, Low of 65 in Haleyville. 

Elsewhere around the region, Fort Payne had a High of 89 and Low of 64. Decatur saw a High of 92, Low of 66. Huntsville saw a High of 93, Low of 70. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 92, Low of 66. Tupelo saw a High of 92, Low of 69. The High was 90, Low of 72 in Memphis. And they saw more clouds today. And then Nashville had a High of 93 and a Low of 69. 

Rain has been very scarce around here lately. And you can see that heat bubble of high pressure has expanded again, as the models were showing days ago. 



That pattern will hold tomorrow. We'll see sunny skies, a High about 92-93, a Low about 66-67. 



Then Saturday again sunny skies, looks Like a High in more the 93-95 range, Low about 68-70 range. 




The ridge of high pressure should weaken some by Sunday, but we stay mostly sunny with a High near 95 and Low near 70. 



On Monday it looks like the pattern may allow for a little more seasonable moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. And we'll have a low-end 20% chance of isolated rain again. The High should be in the low to mid 90's and the Low in the lower 70's. 



Basically the same thing for Tuesday. Our weather in the summer doesn't get all that exciting most of the time. Today is the summer solstice, most of you probably already know. But it's already felt like July for a week or more now. 



Looks like a trough will bring us more rain chances next Wednesday. This is enough to bring the rain chance up to about 40%. High should be in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 



Then for Thursday it looks okay to scale the rain chance back to 30% and forecast a High near 90, Low near 70. 


In the tropics, first off, Tropical Storm Alberto dissipated into just a big mass of rain and gusty winds as it moved across Mexico. But these kinds of heavy rains can produce flooding issues and mudslides over the rough terrain of the country. Especially across the states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, flooding issues are a real concern and could pose a threat to life and property. This includes the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. Getting this information from the National Hurricane Center. 

Through Friday, swells affecting the Texas coast and Northeast Mexico will continue to produce dangerous rip currents and hazardous surfing conditions. 


We have another tropical wave coming up behind it. It should move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and then it may slowly become a tropical depression as it moves West/Northwest. 


If you look at the seven-day tropical outlook from the NHC, this system is likely to develop. So some of those same areas may be in for another round of heavy rains next week, depending on what this system does and where it moves inland. The track does look similar at this point. 

The broad low pressure North/Northeast of the Northern Bahamas does not have a well-defined center of circulation, aircraft found today, but it will approach the coast of Georgia or the Northeast coast of Florida over the next day or two. It has about a 50/50 shot of becoming a tropical depression. 

So the tropics are active early this year. Looks like those ideas of it being an active season were spot on. Usually it doesn't get active like this until July or August, or sometimes later. Not sure how soon we'll see an actual hurricane anywhere, but these weaker systems give us an idea of what kind of season it's likely to be. And we've known for months it was going to be an active one, or had a pretty good idea that it would be. 


And of course the really big rains are expected to be down in Mexico with the tropical activity and perhaps also in parts of Florida/Georgia, where another tropical system is trying to get organized. Around here, our rainfall totals will general stay under a half-inch or even a quarter of an inch for many of us. And you know how uneven and random the distribution of summer rain and thunderstorms can be, if you've lived here even one year. 


Thanks for reading. Even though you'd probably be better off borrowing a book from your local library and reading it organically than staying on your cell phone, tablet, or laptop reading my drivel. Probably even better for your eyesight as you get older. Nonetheless, if you find some value in said drivel, feel free to buy me a coffee via the link above or follow on Twitter/X/Elon Musk's New Playground. 

Decided not to bother with a 10-day outlook this time, but if you're concerned about next weekend (June 28-30), a safe bet would be a mix of sun and clouds, about a 20-30% chance of isolated rain or a thunderstorm each day, Highs in the low-to-mid-90's. Lows would be near 70 or in the lower 70's. If anybody comes up with a better guess than that, I might have to be the one to buy them a coffee. 

By the way, we do have a strawberry full moon tomorrow night. The background on it is interesting to read, but I was surprised to see ABC news offering detailed astrological advice. Sort of put me in a Harlan Ellison mood. I'm told a girl in my family is into a therian movement and currently identifies as a wolf. (Hey, when I was a kid, I wanted to be Oscar the Grouch so much that I couldn't understand why my parents wouldn't buy me a garbage can for Christmas. So who am I to judge . . . ?) So there is a lot of chaff to sort through these days. And I guess you just have to accept that a lot of life is learning to sort through the nonsense. Nonetheless, for my wolfish relative, I hope she enjoys tomorrow night and the beauty of a full moon. And you don't have to be a therian to do that. (Maybe it helps.) Or since I've always liked wolves, and can get a little crazy on a full moon, maybe I'm a therian closet case and don't know it yet. (Isn't it therian pride month anyway? No, wait, just pride month for homosexuals and bisexuals . . . and maybe cross-dressers . . . boring. Although some disturbing trends in culture remind me why people are proud of being able to actually live.) If I become a werewolf before Halloween though, somebody come put me in a straitjacket, please. Because I have this hunch I'd be a really mean one. Nothing like Michael Landon in that Highway to Heaven episode where it's all a gag brought on by a guy eating subway sandwiches before taking a nap. But seriously, don't go clawing anybody up (that's my cats' job), but I wish you a pleasant strawberry moon. Especially if you can enjoy it with strawberry wine. Or even something less intoxicating but more delicious like strawberry cheesecake . . . or best of all, strawberries from the garden patch. 

Strawberry fields forever . . . I'm afraid of Americans . . . I'm afraid of the world . . . I'm afraid I can't help it . . . hungry like the wolf . . . I'm outta' here. 

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