Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Staying Hot and Humid with Only Low Rain Chances Overall

Today (High 95): Sunny. Hot. 

Wednesday (High 94, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the evening. 

Thursday (High 90, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible. 

Friday (High 93, Low 69): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

Saturday (High 94, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday (High 94, Low 74): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 95, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

At 4:15 AM skies are clear in Cullman. The temperature is 70 degrees. The dewpoint is 64 degrees, making the relative humidity 83%. Winds are from the Northeast at 6 miles per hour. The pressure is 29.99 inches and steady. Looks like our Low this morning was 64. I noticed it was comfortable when I was out last night. For a while we had some really muggy nights.

We have high pressure over the region and a dry frontal boundary that we're on the slightly cooler side of. Technically it's a cold front, but it feels silly to use that term with the kinds of temperatures we've had so far this summer. 

Today should be another sunny day with a High near 95. 

Then tomorrow the model trends show a mesocale convective system surviving into at least Tennessee and maybe Alabama tomorrow, maybe tomorrow night. So we could see scattered thunderstorms from that. High should still be about 95, Low near 70. We'll have time to heat up before those storms move in, if they do make it down this way. 

Looks like any rain should go back to being more isolated on Thursday, but with a weak frontal boundary bringing us a High closer to 90, Low still near 70, so more seasonal heat instead of this unusual heat we've had lately. 

Friday we should be mostly sunny again with rain chances minimal, High in lower 90's again. High in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's Saturday. And it's a case of how we have a low chance of isolated rain just about any summer's day. Actually the GFS does ramp the rain chance up slightly for Saturday, which might turn out to be right, but this time of year, I'm skeptical. Then Sunday and Monday as we start the month of July, looks like another frontal boundary will dally with our region but sort of move back and forth. Might have a slightly higher chance of rain Sunday, then slightly lower Monday as a result of that. Highs expected to be back in mid-90's, Lows in lower-70's, maybe mid-70's on the more muggy nights. 

None of that stuff in the tropics developed after all, nothing after Tropical Storm Alberto. There is a weak tropical wave, really disorganized, near the Windward Islands. By the time it makes it to the Caribbean Sea, it has a low chance of some development into a tropical depression. Folks in the Yucatan Peninsula may want to monitor the progress of that in case it ends up bringing heavy rainfall with about the next week. 

By the way, I know some places are already forecasting for the 4th of July. I'm not putting that in the official forecast here, but a pretty safe bet is a mix of sun and clouds, hot and humid, High in mid-90's, Low in lower-to-mid-70's, rain chance only about 20-30% for any one spot. 

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