Friday, June 28, 2024

More Heat, Humidity, Low-End Rain Chances . . .

FORECAST:

Friday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 89, Low 72): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 92, Low 73): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 90, Low 69): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 94, Low 66): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 95, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Independence Day (High 93, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

DISCUSSION:




It was a partly cloudy day in the Tennessee Valley with very scattered rain, light showers for most places. The High in Cullman was 88, and the Low was 72. Jasper saw a High of 90 and Low of 72. Haleyville had a High of 85 and Low of 72. Huntsville appears to have had a High of 91 and Low of 76, but the wild jumps in temperatures from hour to hour make me question whether the observing station at the International Airport may not have had some weird glitch at some point today. And in Nashville, the High was 88 with a morning Low of 73. 

We have a weak frontal boundary pushing to our South. Our temperatures are closer to seasonal norms now. But we've got more extra-hot-and-humid days on the way during this forecast period. And the soupy ocean temperatures are also causing the tropics to get more active sooner than they normally do. So we have to keep a casual eye on that. 



Tomorrow looks like a typical day for late June, a mix of sun and clouds, a High near 90, Low near 70, chance of rain only 20% for something isolated. 



Saturday the GFS wants to increase rain chances from a lot of southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Tempering that with knowledge of local climatology, will only increase rain chance to 30% for Saturday. The High should be about 88-90 range, Low about 70-72.



Then for Sunday, we actually have another weak frontal boundary coming our way. "Cold fronts" this time of year don't tend to do much. But this is enough reason to bump the rain chance up to 40% for Sunday. Rain could become more numerous across the map Sunday night, but that's kind of a close call this time of year, where it's often a stalemate between areas of high pressure and whatever is trying to bring us rain, Gulf moisture, a weak front. High should be in the lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 



Monday looks mostly sunny with rain chance so low they are not worth worrying about. Should have  brief shot of drier air behind that weak frontal boundary. High should be near 90, Low near 70 or perhaps upper 60's with the drier air and better radiational cooling at night. 



Tuesday also looks mostly sunny with lower humidity levels but some heat coming back, temperatures rising into the lower-to-mid-90's, probably about 93-94 for the High temperature. The Low should be in the mid-to-upper-60's because we should cool a good bit overnight into Tuesday morning. 



Looks like humidity levels rise and we have to reintroduce a 20% chance of isolated rain/thunderstorms for Wednesday of next week. High should be in the mid-90's, the Low near 70 again. 



Then our rain chances come up a little bit for Thursday, the 4th of July, but for now, I think rain chances of 30% are enough. Can see how that trends over the next few days. Decided against a 10-day-outlook this time because the tropics are unusually active. There are no clear signs that any of it will affect our region directly, but tonight it just didn't feel right to try to look out ten days. If the holiday was still within the 10-day range then I might. But it is Day 7. High should be in the lower, maybe mid-90's, the Low in the lower 70's. 


The disorganized low pressure system in the Western Caribbean Sea is getting ready to move over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It only has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. 

There is another tropical wave a few hundred miles Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that has a much better chance of doing something. It is already beginning to organize, and we may see this become a tropical storm before this weekend is over. It is moving West at 15-20 miles per hour and will be a concern for the Windward Islands and the Lesser Antilles. 


Most of us will see rainfall totals of a quarter-inch or less for this forecast period. 


We had several reports of wind damage to trees and power lines yesterday. I believe it was a mesoscale convective system. I haven't really been on the grid keeping up with the weather all the time lately. There were no injuries in our region from these damaging wind gusts. And they do happen every summer. After living here a year or two, you sort of figure out how our summer storms go, pretty much random and can pulse up and become really strong or even severe sometimes, just from the heat and humidity, but then rain themselves out quickly. 

And this is being published late because I started to go on a personal/social tangent and then scrapped it after working on it for several hours. Sometimes I think I should have had a newspaper column. I'd probably get death threats, but I wouldn't be the first by any means. If I'm going to comment on things publicly, not getting paid, I need to wait until I'm in a better frame of mind, and can say what I mean, make it clearly understood. 

Believe it or not, even analyzing summer weather without any personal asides can take some time and energy. 

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