Friday, June 28, 2024

Tropical Depression Two


This one is worth keeping an eye on, looks like it will become a hurricane. It's crazy to see that when we're not even into July yet, but the ocean temperatures are about as warm as we've ever seen them this year. Right now the main concern is for the Windward Islands, and then we'll see how the track of the storm looks after that. 


WTNT42 KNHC 282033


Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024

500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the

central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep

convection in bands around the center.  In addition, visible

satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the

center now appears well-defined.  Thus, a tropical depression has

formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the

latest Dvorak classifications.  Development this far east in late

June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in

history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical

Atlantic this early in the year.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt.  A strong subtropical

ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively

quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days.

The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the

forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially

in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the

ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies

near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the

guidance envelope.  Based on this forecast, the system is expected

to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and

track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the

middle of next week.

Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for

intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.

However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear

conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.

Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows

the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday

and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It

should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive

and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast.  For

example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a

major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below

970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a

hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or

Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,

and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for

portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight

or early Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the

progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large

uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific

details of the track or intensity forecast.


INIT  28/2100Z  9.1N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  29/0600Z  9.4N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  29/1800Z 10.1N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  30/0600Z 10.7N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  30/1800Z 11.3N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  01/0600Z 12.0N  58.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  01/1800Z 13.0N  61.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  03/1800Z 17.5N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH


Forecaster Cangialosi

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