Monday, June 17, 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Developing in SW Gulf of Mexico



 444 

WTNT41 KNHC 172054

TCDAT1


Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024

400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024


Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of 

the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a 

central pressure near 1001 mb.  The system currently does not have 

the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection 

is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 

200-250 n mi northeast of the center.  The various global models 

forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the 

western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is 

required at this time.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on 

Potential Tropical Cyclone One.


The initial motion is 345/6.  This general motion should continue 

for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic 

motion due to center reformation.  After that, the cyclone is 

expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side 

of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast.  This 

should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h.  

While there are differences in details due to the disorganized 

nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on 

this general scenario.


The global models suggest that some deepening of the central 

pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the 

system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone.  Based on 

that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening.  

There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the 

large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a 

tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this 

possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in 

about 36 h.  However, there is a chance the system will never 

become a tropical cyclone.


Key Messages: 

1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of 

this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal 

flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center 

along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.


2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will 

impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico 

and southeastern Texas.   This rainfall will likely produce 

considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed 

river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher 

terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.


3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas 

Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 


4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over 

portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port 

O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  17/2100Z 20.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  18/0600Z 21.1N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 24H  18/1800Z 22.2N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 36H  19/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 48H  19/1800Z 23.4N  96.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 60H  20/0600Z 23.8N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 72H  20/1800Z 24.0N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 96H  21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Forecaster Beven

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