Monday, July 1, 2024

Drier Air Through Tomorrow Before Summer Heat/Humidity Cranks Back Up, Hurricane Beryl Moving Into Caribbean Sea

FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 91, Low 67): Mostly sunny. Lower humidity. 

Wednesday (High 93, Low 71): Partly cloudy, hot and humid. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Independence Day (High 92, Low 72): Partly cloudy, hot and humid. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 91, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 92, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

READING TEA LEAVES:

Tuesday July 9 (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday July 10 (High 92, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday July 11 (High 93, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 91, Low 78): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday (High 89, Low 79): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Thursday (High 90, Low 78): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Weekend (Highs ~90, Lows in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 67): Mayormente soleado. Menor humedad.

Miércoles (Máxima 93, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado, caluroso y húmedo. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado, caluroso y húmedo. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 40% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Máxima 92, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Lunes (Máxima 92, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

LEYENDO LAS HOJAS DE TÉ:

Martes 9 de Julio (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles 10 de Julio (Máxima 92, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves 11 de Julio (Máxima 93, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 78): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Miércoles (Máxima 89, Mínima 79): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Jueves (Máxima 90, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

Fin de Semana (Máximas ~90, Mínimas en los 70 superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

DISCUSSION:




At 2 PM skies are fair in Cullman. The temperature is 86 degrees. The dewpoint is 59 degrees, making the relative humidity 40%. Winds are from the Northeast, sustained at 16 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 22 mph. The pressure is 30.07 inches and steady. The Low this morning was 73. 

Skies are also sunny in Jasper with a temperature of 91 degrees. The dewpoint is 63, making the relative humidity 38%. Winds are Northeast at 8 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph. The pressure is 30.04 inches and steady. 

It is sunny and 86 in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 62, making the relative humidity 45%. Winds are North at 9 mph with gusts up to 16 mph. The pressure is 30.09 inches/1017.5 millibars and falling slowly. 

It is mostly sunny in Huntsville with a temperature of 91 degrees. The dewpoint is 54, making the relative humidity 28%. Winds are Northeast at 13 mph. The pressure is 30.05 inches/1016.7 millibars and falling slowly. 

Nashville is partly cloudy and 84 degrees. The dewpoint is 56, making the relative humidity 38%. Winds are from the Northeast at 8 miles per hour, with higher gusts up to 20 mph. The pressure is 30.12 inches/1019.4 millibars and falling slowly. 

That frontal boundary, guess it's technically a cold front, is down to Birmingham by now. And we've got no cold air coming in any time soon. It is bringing us some lower humidity for a short time though, and tomorrow morning will be sort of cool compared to what we've gotten used to, about as cool a morning as you're going to get this time of year. After that it looks like we go back to the typical summer pattern, except that we did get the heat in a hurry this year. But now that we're into July, it's more expected. 

We'll probably get up to about 89-90 degrees before this afternoon is over. Any rain should stay to our South and East. 




Tomorrow the heat bubble of high pressure should settle more over the region. Our air should stay really dry, and mostly sunny skies are expected with no significant chance of rain. High should be about 90-92 degrees, the Low about 66-67. 



Then Wednesday looks like another hot one, High of about 92-93 degrees, Low about 70-73 range. A mix of sun and clouds and enough wind flow from the Gulf of Mexico to support bringing back that typical 20% chance of isolated rain that we see most summer days. 




The heat ridge relaxes some on Thursday, July 4th, and models have stayed consistently in bringing our moisture levels up, so forecasting a 30% chance of rain where, which still means widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, pretty standard for this time of the year. Overall the day will be a mix of sun and clouds, but there's about a 3 out of 10 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. Or to keep it even simpler, about a 1-in-3 chance. The percentages don't always translate exactly, but forecasting summer weather is not rocket science usually. You get the general idea. We'll have a High in the lower 90's, Low in the lower 70's. 



Then on Friday, we actually have another frontal boundary (ahem, cough, cold front) coming at us. 


And at this point I'm only inclined to increase the rain chance to 40%. This is subject to change after I've gone through the rest of the forecast period and review the overall pattern from day to day. But my first thought is to temper what the models are showing with past experience of our local climatology. Still looks like a High in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's. 



This one looks to behave more like cold front boundaries usually do this time of year around here, move slowly, stall out, have weak impacts. 



Going to hold rain chance for Saturday in the 30-40% bracket, leaning toward 40% even though the GFS looks less aggressive here. I guess I could show the European, the ECMWF, but that seems like overkill for such a routine summer forecast. I did look at it. It shows a little more rain. Which is why I lean toward 40%. It does perform a little better at this time range. And the GFS has a tendency to rush things and not always take the local climatology into account. High should be near 90, Low near 70. 



Looks like by Sunday and Monday, that front will be weak and stall out. 



As much as I just criticized the GFS, I think its forecast for Sunday is closer to being right than the ECMWF's. It shows mainly high pressure in place and limited moisture. It suggests the stalled front may "wash out" to some extent. So I'm going to bring the rain chance down to 20% for Sunday. High still near 90, Low near 70. 

Before I proceed, I'm going to poke fun at one TV station where the forecast actually says "Midday Storms" for next Monday. If anybody is that accurate with the timing of summer storms seven days in advance, I hope they're already a member of MENSA. Not even my Indian Weather Rock is that amazing. 



Seriously though, Monday will be more-or-less the same as Sunday with only a 20% chance of rain/thunder, a mix of sun and clouds, a High of 90 or so, Low near 70. 



Looking out ten days, to July 11, it looks like Highs in the lower 90's, Lows in lower 70's, a 20% chance of rain for Tuesday and Thursday, think will defer to model trends and increase it to 30% for that Wednesday. Though the European guidance got super messy at this time range. There's a reason I call it reading tea leaves. The confidence drops beyond a week in advance, especially in summer. But it can be fun to try when the weather is not high-impact. 

Now we do have to watch the heat and humidity, especially Wednesday and Thursday (Independence Day). Local National Weather Service offices are talking about maybe issuing a Heat Advisory for at least one of those days if Heat Indices look to be at least 105 degrees. 

And a lot of people forget, heat ends up being the #1 weather killer every year. My Papaw on my mother's side would have said, "Sure it is . . . if yer stupid and stay out in it!"

So he was a bit taciturn, and I miss the guy. But the reality is that it doesn't only happen to stupid people, heat-related illnesses. A big part of why people get sick so easily now is probably that our bodies have gotten used to always having air conditioning. So a lot of times people don't realize how hot they're getting until they start feeling sick. You're more likely to get heat exhaustion than actual heatstroke, but still, it pays to be careful. I guess I thought of my Papaw because that's who we used to shoot off fireworks with the most. He made it a lot of fun. We usually started around sunset and did most of it after dark. And it's not as hot by then. As long as you pace yourself, should be fine. 

The last time I remember a really bad 4th of July was in Arab, where my neighbors (who were almost always drunk) managed to set the woods on fire while we were under a Red Flag Warning. Fortunately the fire department got there quick and put it out before it became a major problem. But as soon as they were gone, those idiots started shooting fireworks into the woods again. 

You know what they say: The Lord takes care of drunks and fools. They were both that day. 

I know for sure the father of the family was drunk, because he kept running back and forth looking at the fire from different angles and just screaming in a tone that let you know he'd been drinking: "AUUUGGGGHHHHHH! AUUUUUUGGGGHHHHHHH! It's gonna' burn all our asses up! It's goan' burn all our asses up!"

I was planning on keeping this post professional and classy for a change. So much for that. I've already blown it. 

Maybe I should make the distinction that it was mainly the stepson shooting the fireworks into the woods. I don't think the dad of the family approved. It was always hard to tell with them. 




The tropics are where the high-impact weather is right now. Tropical Storm Chris has basically fizzled out over Mexico now. Hurricane Beryl has ravaged the Windward Islands today. And we'll have to watch that disturbance behind it, about 1000 miles East/Southeast of the Windward Islands. They will need to watch this, and so will the Lesser Antilles. It will likely become a tropical depression by about Wednesday. And the track is looking similar to Beryl's. 



The pressure has dropped to 956 millibars in Hurricane Beryl, and maximum sustained winds are now at 150 miles per hour as it continues to move through the Southern Windward Islands. This makes it a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. 

It is expected to keep that strength through tomorrow but then encounter some Westerly wind shear in the Caribbean Sea before it reaches Jamaica on Wednesday. Jamaica is under a Hurricane Watch. And tropical storm impacts are also possible in Southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic even though the hurricane will pass well South of there tomorrow. They could get some of the outer bands. 

It has had an eyewall replacement cycle today and is stronger than before. As you can see from the satellite imagery, the eyewall is very well-defined. The aircraft investigations backed up what can be seen on satellite, that this is a major hurricane still. 

It will probably be more of an average hurricane by the time it gets to Jamaica, but that's dangerous enough. And I wouldn't let my guard down if I was on vacation down that way. I'd take it seriously and take reasonable precautions against hurricane impacts. And even people upstream in the Yucatan Peninsula are likely to deal with this hurricane by this weekend. After it passes over there and gets into the Bay of Campeche, then it will probably weaken back to a tropical storm. 

As of right now, there have been no reports of injuries from the Windward Islands, but the damage from this hurricane does sound pretty bad, which was expected. 


Rainfall totals for this forecast period will average about an inch, but we all know that is more variable in summer than in the other seasons. 

If I'm going to keep doing this blog, I'm trying to find a balance point between just sticking to the facts and keeping it professional, which can get kind of dry, and mixing in some chitchat without making things as cringe as that "presidential debate" the other night. I've seen classier and better choreographed wrestling matches. 

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