Sunday, July 7, 2024

Impacts from Remnants of Hurricane Beryl Should Be Minimal, Still Some Brief Relief from Heat Mid-Week

FORECAST:

Monday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 91, Low 71): Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday (High 86, Low 72): Mostly sunny and not as hot or humid. An isolated lingering shower is possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Thursday (High 89, Low 65): Sunny.

Friday (High 92, Low 68): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 95, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday (High 94, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Monday (High 92, Low 80): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 90, Low 80): Showers and thunderstorms likely. Dangerous rip currents expected.

Wednesday (High 90, Low 80): Showers likely. Dangerous rip currents expected. 

Rest of Week (Highs in lower 90's, Lows in upper 70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado y con brisa. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas disperas.

Miércoles (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Mayormente soleado y no tan caluroso ni húmedo. Todavía es posible una lluvia aislada.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Jueves (Máxima 89, Mínima 65): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 92, Mínima 68): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 95, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Máxima 94, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Lunes (Máxima 92, Mínima 80): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

Martes (Máxima 90, Mínima 80): Lluvias y tormentas eléctricas probables. Se esperan corrientes de resaca peligrosas.

Miércoles (Máxima 90, Mínima 80): Probables lluvias. Se esperan corrientes de resaca peligrosas.

Resto de la Semana (Máximas en los 90 grados inferiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados superiores): parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

DISCUSSION:

We had a mostly sunny day in Cullman today with a High of 90 and morning Low of 68. 

And we need an update to the forecast since the expected track of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl has changed since yesterday evening. 


Any rain around here today has been really isolated, and some of those radar echoes probably aren't even reaching the ground, just virga. 



And how about that, you can see Tropical Storm Beryl very well on regional radar and visible satellite imagery. For now it is still at tropical storm strength with winds of about 55 knots. 



And I can't get over what a sight this storm is and has been for its whole life cycle. Thought I'd collect a lot of angles on it this evening since it is expected to make landfall in Texas later tonight. 




So while Texas is dealing with that, we've got a stalled front in Alabama still. 

By the way, rip currents are a problem along the Gulf Coast right now. So just be aware of that, the only hurricane impact you'll really notice if you're down at Mobile or Gulf Shores. 

Also an odd bit of weather history today, the anniversary of the SciTanic Microburst 40 years ago today, back in 1984. 





The tropical cyclone known as Beryl is expected to make landfall in Texas at hurricane strength with winds of about 85 miles per hour overnight. 

So what does that mean for us?

We won't see any impacts from it tomorrow, just a typical July day of a mix of sun and clouds, High about 91-92, Low near 70-71, about a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. 


There will be a risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes on the East side of the dying tropical cyclone tomorrow, but that will mainly affect East Texas into Louisiana, not going to get close to us here. 


And with the more northerly track expected, it doesn't look like we've got anything to worry about on Tuesday either. The main threat for rotating storms will actually be all the way up in Kentucky by then. 

The only caveat I'll throw in is that the remnants of hurricanes can still bring surprises. Being on the East side of this system, we do have to watch in case it takes a more southerly track. Then some parts of Tennessee into North Alabama could end up seeing some issues after all. But since it's probably missing us to the North, going to take any mention of severe potential out of the official forecast. 




Just double checking, the NAM does show a decent combination of unstable air and wind shear on Tuesday around here, though the higher values are in Northern Tennessee up into Kentucky. 


Then it you look at a forecast sounding at 4 PM Tuesday it's showing really strong instability but almost no wind shear to work with as far as directional shear like you'd need for a tornado potential. I guess the bottom line is that the remnants are just passing too far to the North for us to need to be concerned about. 



It may be kind of a close call though. And if you want to be extra safe, keep an eye on Tuesday just in case. 

Most likely we'll just see general rain and thunderstorms, and even those should stay scattered, about a 2-in-5 chance of any one spot getting one. High of 90 or so, Low of 70 or so. It could get breezy Tuesday and Tuesday night. 


It is now looking like we'll get in a dry slot Wednesday. Might see a lingering shower somewhere, but will keep the chance minimal with mostly sunny skies, High in mid-80's and Low of 70 or so. 


Then Thursday definitely looks dry. We might not even quite make it back to 90 degrees, Low should be down in the mid-60's. Because of the drier air. 




Then Friday looks like mostly sunny skies still, little or no rain around, High in lower 90's again, Low in upper 60's. 

Saturday we'll let the rain chances creep back in here as more Gulf moisture might balance out the high pressure ridge that's going to build after the remnants are out of here on Tuesday. Let's stick to Saturday, yes, the High may even get to the mid-90's for many of us, the Low still near 70. 

And then Sunday, about a 30% chance of rain, High in lower-to-mid-90's, Low of 70 or so. 

Beyond that . . . who knows? Go read the Farmer's Almanac. Or just wait and see what happens. That's what I really should do instead of this blogging nonsense. 


Just because we have rain chances all the way back up to a whole whopping 30% next Sunday, don't get your hopes up. On average we're going to see a quarter-inch or less of rainfall over the next seven days. A lot of places will see less than a tenth of an inch. That's how it's looking. And it's nothing unusual for July. Although this summer is already a rough one. And the ocean temperatures globally are at record levels. As you might have surmised by us having a hurricane forming in late June that ends up doing major damage to the Windward Islands, making weather history. I can't tell you if we'll have a worse heat wave before the summer's over. I can just tell you that we get a minor break in the heat this week from the hurricane remnants even though we probably won't get any rain or storms from it directly. And then we go back to cookin' by this weekend, next weekend I mean. 

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