Thursday, March 9, 2023

A Couple Clear Days, Frost Possible Saturday Morning, More Rain Sunday

(Forecast)

Friday (High 60, Low 51): A lingering shower or two is possible early in the morning, then quickly clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Staying breezy and cool.

Saturday (High 62, Low 35): Patchy frost possible in the morning, but plenty of sunshine during the day. Scattered to numerous showers are possible at night. 

Sunday (High 69, Low 53): Rain likely with gusty winds at times. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible in the mix. 

Monday (High 53, Low 37): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 52, Low 30): Sunny - widespread frost or even a freeze possible in morning.

Wednesday (High 59, Low 28): Sunny - freeze or widespread frost possible in morning. 

Thursday (High 67, Low 43): Partly cloudy. 

(Notes)

And here is a look at the tornadoes we had in the area on March 1 and March 3. Still interesting to me that nobody got hurt in the tornadoes, but a few died in the damaging wind event. 

Next SKYWARN class is 6 PM this Tuesday at the Huntsville Jaycee's Building. 

7:55 PM last minute add-on note - Hard to believe I forgot this, but Daylight Savings Time will start Saturday night/Sunday morning. So if you have clocks that need to be set forward an hour manually, reminder of that, also if you have batteries that need changing in a weather radio or anything else important, good time to remember that. 

(Discussion)





It was an overcast, sometimes breezy day in the Tennessee Valley with periods of light rain, haze, and fog. The High in Cullman was 57 after a morning Low of 50. Jasper saw a High of 59 and Low of 52. Haleyville saw a High of 57 and a Low of 50. 

Looking up further into North Alabama, Fort Payne had a High of 57 and a Low of 53. Huntsville saw a High of 59 and Low of 52 today. In Muscle Shoals the High was 60 after a Low of 52. Looks like Gadsden had a High of 57 and Low of 52. There really has not been a lot of temperature variation today because of all the moisture. Nashville did get up to 61 after.a morning Low of 45. Memphis saw a High of 58 and Low of 48. And Tupelo got up to 64 after a Low this morning of 54. 


The weather is pretty active across much of the country. The front is starting to occlude as it gets ready to move through our region. Rain extends through the Mid-South back to Texas to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. In the Ohio Valley through the Great Lakes and Dakotas, they have snow and ice on the back side of this. Still some wintry precipitation also going on in New England and the Pacific Northwest down through some other states West of the Rockies. 



By late morning tomorrow we should be well into a clearing trend behind this front. We could see an isolated shower in the early morning, but overall the day should be mostly sunny. It will still be breezy. Look for a High near 60, Low near 50. 



Saturday again we should see a High of 60 or so, more sun than clouds. The Low Saturday morning should be about 35 or 36, which will allow for a chance of patchy frost, late-season frost. Saturday night some of the rain may move in even before midnight going into Saturday morning, close call on that. 



The ongoing precipitation on Sunday will probably keep us too cool and stable to be concerned about any severe thunderstorms. 



For both Saturday and Sunday, the Storm Prediction Center is outlooking the best chance for any organized severe thunderstorms happening over parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, staying well to our West. Even there, storms are mainly expected to be "hailers" with only a secondary threat for any damaging wind gusts. 

So we'll take the good luck after having a few rounds of severe weather already this year. Around here we might see a few thunderstorms, but mostly just rain with this system. Winds could get gusty at times, but nothing like our recent damaging wind event, just in case anyone would get worried about that. If we did see a stronger storm around here, I think it would be an isolated event. 



And I really doubt we have any problems in North Alabama or up into Tennessee. Even in Central Alabama, like around Birmingham, the instability is looking marginal via both the NAM and the SREF.

So forecasting a rainy day with some gusty winds on Sunday, few thunderstorms possible in the mix, High in the upper 60's, Low of about 50 or so. 



Then behind that front, we start to get some of the seriously cold air on Monday. Looks like a High in the lower 50's, Low in the upper 30's, mostly sunny skies. 



Due to better radiational cooling possible Monday night in the less humid air, Tuesday will start out even colder, bringing possibility of widespread frost or even a hard freeze in some places. Cullman is expected to start the day at about 30 degrees and only warm up to the lower 50's again. Sunny skies.



As we get strong Northwest wind flow at 500 millibars and then the surface High moves through the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday, we will have an even colder morning. Sunny skies again, and we'll warm up to about 60 degrees again during the day, but before that, lots of places could see a freeze, with the morning Low dipping into the upper 20's. 



Thursday looks partly cloudy with a High in upper 60's, Low in lower 40's. Should start a warming trend. May see some rain by Friday or even next Thursday night, but for now, do not see enough evidence to put rain chances in for next Thursday. Most if not all of the day looks dry. 

Same as I don't see enough evidence to mention even a marginal chance for severe thunderstorms on Sunday as of right now. Something isolated could develop if any breaks in the rain allowed for the air to destabilize, but if it did, probably to our South and West, and probably the main threat would be severe hail, before any damaging wind threat. More likely it is mainly going to be another good rain. 



Looks like I can offer good news on that front too though. The Weather Prediction Center is only outlooking a marginal threat for us getting any flooding issues with this event on Sunday. We could see isolated instances of it, but it is not a higher, widespread threat. If you live in a place that floods a lot, especially close to a river or lake, then you sort of know the ropes I guess. Main thing is just not to drive into flooded roads. So many people do that, and the rescues are dangerous for everyone involved. When the National Weather Service says "Turn around - DON'T DROWN", they mean it. 


On average, most of us should see about an inch of additional rainfall from Sunday's system. In Northeast Alabama up into nearby parts of Tennessee, the totals might be more like 1.5-2 inches. 

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