Friday, March 31, 2023

Mesoscale Discussion

5:56 PM - There has been a lot going on today to our North and West. Supercell thunderstorms have produced tornadoes that hit Little Rock and Iowa City with what looked like really significant damage. Looks like some chasers had some close calls. If I can mention a silver lining, it is that I saw a couple of stories about people surviving even these worst tornadoes by getting into an interior room on the lowest floor like a bathroom, remember for sure seeing where an elderly couple survived even though the winds did get in there and tore up part of the bathroom, and there was debris in there. So it's pretty safe to say that getting there saved their lives. 

Our threat for damaging winds and tornadoes around here is expected to be somewhat lower, but it is still well worth respecting. I saw where Sam Shamburger posted something to that effect for the folks in Nashville and Middle Tennessee. I wouldn't become complacent just because the storms should be a little weaker overall. They could still become severe. The damaging winds could do not only routine damage, but with this setup, I would not rule out structural damage. And tornadoes are possible with this squall line. Like last week, a few may do fairly significant damage even though they are part of a squall line rather than out by themselves. So it is important to take any warnings seriously tonight and have a reliable way to get them. A way that will wake you up. 

6:05 PM - And the tornado watch has come out for the Shoals. 

Mesoscale Discussion 0411

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0528 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi...far northwestern

   Alabama...and Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 312228Z - 010000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour downstream

   of WW94.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across western Arkansas and eastern

   Tennessee will gradually continue to track eastward, with additional

   development expected downstream, over the next several hours. The

   environment is expected to become increasingly favorable for

   tornadoes, a few of which may be strong. Upstream SRH profiles

   observed at KNQA (Memphis, Tennessee) indicate 0-1 km SRH around 560

   m2/s2. Large curving hodographs will support the potential for

   long-track supercells with risk of strong tornadoes. This

   environment will translate downstream into Middle Tennessee and

   northern Mississippi/Alabama over the next 1-3 hours as surface

   destabilization occurs. A downstream Tornado Watch will be issued

   within an hour.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33649038 34148991 35698888 36468830 36688761 36628668

               36418628 36088620 35668630 35278656 34678707 33968758

               33508808 33168846 32918877 32778910 32838959 33079033


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