Friday, March 31, 2023

High Risk Severe Weather Outbreak Possible in Midwest and Mid-South


 If you know anyone in these highest threat levels especially, maybe encourage them to make use of a storm shelter or a basement that is at least partly underground today, if they have it available. 

Even in the hot zones, most people will be okay as long as they do the right things in a site-built home/other sturdy structure and do not stay in a mobile home. 

* Away from windows.

* Lowest floor

* Small room like a bathroom or closet, or hallway

* As many walls between you and storm outside as possible

* Shield body from falling or flying debris, especially head/neck

Around here, we do not have as much of a severe weather risk, but it is still somewhat significant. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible tonight along and within a squall line. It will probably start in Northwest Alabama between about 9 PM and Midnight, and that is when/where the tornado potential or potential for especially damaging thunderstorm winds is expected to be highest.

The main around here is that when you go to bed tonight, have a way to get warnings that will wake you up. And be able to get to that safe place in your house within five minutes. 

If you have to leave to go to a better shelter, like from a mobile home, then you'll need to do more planning, get up ever so often and check the progress of the storms. Or you could choose to go to the shelter or a friend's sturdy house when the watch comes out and not wait for the storms to get close. I know it is inconvenient, but today/tonight is dangerous. 

12:39 PM update - Watching trends. Be alert even this evening going into the night hours. Some supercells might try to form in Northwest Alabama or adjacent parts of Tennessee earlier than what was previously expected. It is basically down to watching the radar and whatever ground truth there is, and a little bit of watching mesoscale trends like during any severe weather event. I guess a best-case scenario around here would be for a mixed, messy storm mode to lessen our severe weather threat somewhat. But we can't count on that. Even if that happens to an extent, one or two spots in our TN Valley region could still get hit with significant damaging winds or a tornado. Please stay safe and check on the people you love until this is over with. 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL

   WOUS40 KWNS 311639

   ALZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-WIZ000-010200-


   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1139 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023


   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over

   parts of the portions of the Midwest and the lower MS/TN River

   Valleys this afternoon and tonight...


   * LOCATIONS...

     Illinois

     Iowa

     Arkansas

     Mississippi

     Tennessee

     Missouri

     Kentucky

     Alabama

     Indiana

     Wisconsin

     Louisiana

     Ohio


   * HAZARDS...

     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track

     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force

     Scattered large hail, some baseball size


   * SUMMARY...

     A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely, centered

     on this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the

     Mississippi Valley. At least a few long-track, strong to

     potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over

     portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths

     of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are

     expected as well.


   Preparedness actions...


   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility

   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 

   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado

   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form

   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for

   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or

   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.


   &&


   ..Bentley.. 03/31/2023


   $$        

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