Friday, March 31, 2023

Public Severe Weather Outlook


This looks like a full-blown tornado outbreak for parts of the Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Midwest, into Ohio River Valley. 

The safest place in a tornado is a storm shelter or a basement.

TORNADO WATCH means conditions are becoming favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, in and close to the watch area.

TORNADO WARNING means a tornado is thought to be developing or already happening within the warning polygon. People in that area need to take shelter immediately and gather more information only once they are in a safe place.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is a storm producing winds of at least 50 knots (58 mph) or hail at least 1 inch in diameter (size of a quarter). Sometimes these storms produce a tornado with little or no extra warning.

Key messages:

* Do not stay in a mobile home for this event, and be able to get to your place of shelter within five minutes of getting a warning.

* Have a reliable way to get warnings such as a NOAA Weather Radio, WeatherCall, or at least Wireless Emergency Alerts enabled on a cell phone, something that will wake you up if need be. Of course radio, television, and internet sources are good once you are awake.

* In a site-built house, apartment, or other strong building, move into a small central room (or hallway) on the lowest floor, away from any windows. And cover your body the best you can from falling or flying debris, especially protect your head and the back of your neck.

The severe weather in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee will probably start around 9-10 PM around the Shoals and be winding down around 4-5 AM around Fort Payne and other places in far Northeast Alabama. We are mainly expecting a squall line capable of damaging thunderstorm winds around here, maybe some hail in storms, and a decent chance of a few tornadoes within the squall line as well. An isolated supercell thunderstorm or two is also possible apart from the line, that risk is more likely in Northwest Alabama up into Tennessee generally along and West of I-65. 

If you know somebody more in the hot zone, maybe give them a call or other type of message and make sure they know that this could be a significant day for organized severe weather that could cause a lot of damage and really be a threat to life. 


   WOUS40 KWNS 311239




   0739 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mississippi

   Valley this afternoon and tonight...


     Much of Illinois

     Eastern Iowa

     Western and Middle Tennessee

     Eastern Missouri

     Northern Mississippi

     Western Kentucky

     Central and eastern Arkansas

     Southwestern Indiana

     Northwestern Alabama

     Far southern Wisconsin

     Extreme northern Louisiana

   * HAZARDS...

     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force

     Several tornadoes, a few intense

     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...

     A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely this

     afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi

     Valley and into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At least a

     few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are

     probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi

     Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts

     along with very large hail are expected as well.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility

   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch

   means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

   over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is

   issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 

   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.


   ..Goss.. 03/31/2023


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