Wednesday, May 3, 2023

A Couple More Sunny, Mild Days, Then a Warm Summerlike Pattern Sets Up This Weekend Into Next Week

Wednesday (High 70, Low 38): Sunny. Lightly breezy.

Thursday (High 73, Low 40): Sunny. Staying dry and mild.

Friday (High 76, Low 51): Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. A few stronger storms will be possible in the night hours. 

Saturday (High 81, Low 59): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 83, Low 62): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday (High 80, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 82, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

As we approach the midnight hour, skies are clear in Cullman with calm winds. The temperature is 46 degrees. The dewpoint is 36, making the relative humidity 66%. The pressure is 29.88 inches and steady. Overall we had a mostly sunny and breezy day today, with winds generally from the West/Northwest. The High was 70, and the Low was 39, pretty mild temperatures for early May. Jasper saw a High of 73 and a Low of 37. And Haleyville got up to 69 degrees after a morning Low of 41. 

The National Weather Service in Nashville is still offering a few Weather101 classes through the latter half of this month. 

Not much to see on radar other than a few light showers in Eastern Tennessee and also a little rain down along the Gulf Coast, especially the coast of Louisiana. They do have some storms going on out in Texas. 

A few of those did produce some severe hail and some strong wind gusts today. 

Those storms appear to have been associated with an outflow boundary along a stalled front out West. Around here, a strong High pressure system continues to dominate our weather for the time being. 

And overall our week does look to stay dry. The movement of that front through the Plains is expected to be very slow. 

It should not be as windy tomorrow, as that strong Low pressure system that has been over the Northeastern CONUS is expected to move off into the Atlantic Ocean. Will still mention a light breeze. Skies will be sunny as strong High pressure continues to build in from the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures should be similar to today's. We'll get good radiational cooling tonight. 

Skies stay sunny on Thursday as the High pressure is centered over the Southeast region and Tennessee Valley. The High temperature will probably get up to about 72-73, but I'm not convinced the Low temperature can rise much above 40 with air this dry and the calmer winds allowing more radiational cooling at night.

Then on Friday, the pattern starts to change as that storm system from the Plains moves into our region, enough to bring us scattered rain chances, about a 30% chance during the day on Friday, about a 1-in-3 shot of any one spot getting a shower or thunderstorm. The High should edge into the mid/upper 70's, and the morning Low should rebound quickly into the lower 50's. Will have to watch Friday night into Saturday morning to see how well the unstable air and wind shear come together with any lifting mechanism that causes thunderstorms to fire. Have to consider at least a low-end probability of a few storms trying to reach severe limits. We had that recently, a night where storms were very scattered, but one produced golfball-sized hail and strong enough winds to damage some structures in Cullman. So the threat for any stronger storms looks on the low end for us, but since we are still in our primary severe weather season through the end of May, it is a good idea to keep an eye on just things, just in case. 

Remember that if you get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, you need to be indoors away from windows or anything electrical. Ideally in a sturdy house, rather than a mobile home, in an interior room on the lowest floor. And you really need a NOAA Weather Radio to get those warnings. Usually they are not broadcast via cell phone alerts. 

For Saturday will increase the rain chance to 40%, and again, even if it looks like the best chance is overnight between Friday and Saturday, have to watch for any stronger storms, could have one or two even get up to severe limits. And even if it is not a widespread threat, those storms do pose some danger to the communities they affect. High should get up near 80 on Saturday, and the morning Low should be near 60. I may go with a 30% chance of rain for both Friday and Saturday, depending on how I evaluate things overall after looking at each day one at a time. This overall pattern looks unsettled, and between the different models, it is a close call whether Saturday's rain chance should be any higher than Friday's. 

We may be lacking much lifting mechanism with any showers/storm on Friday and Saturday, even though the instability is expected to be ample, and wind shear is trending toward being enough to work with too. 

Once again on Sunday, outlooking a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High should be in lower 80's, Low about 60 or so. Now I'm starting to think Friday through the whole weekend should be blanketed with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. And we'll have to monitor any stronger storms, of course, but I think overall the severe weather threat will be very low due to the lack of a good lifting mechanism. It will probably be closer to how you can get an isolated severe thunderstorm on a summer's day when it is so muggy. 

And it looks to stay unsettled Monday and Tuesday. May trim rain chances back to 20% Tuesday. This is more of a summerlike pattern. And frankly, glancing at model projections into the rest of next week, it looks like an unsettled summerlike pattern will continue with some pretty warm temperatures getting up into the 80's at times. 

For this forecast period of the next seven days, rainfall totals around here are expected to average a quarter-inch or less. 

I don't have a lot of time to devote to this blog right now, but maybe later in the summer when hurricane season ramps up, I can give it more time and attention, if I keep getting readers. 

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