Thursday, May 25, 2023

Isolated Rain Possible Over Weekend, Mostly Dry Pattern with Mild Temperatures

(Forecast)

Friday (High 80, Low 57): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday (High 78, Low 58): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 73, Low 54): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower is possible, especially early in the day.

(Extended Outlook)

Memorial Day (High 78, Low 52): Sunny.

Tuesday (High 84, Low 57): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 86, Low 63): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 85, Low 65): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday (High 87, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 88, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 87, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Discussion)






Overall it has been a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, though we've had some clouds and haze here and there. And we did see some fog this morning. Our High in Cullman looks like it is going to be 79 after a Low this morning of 54. Jasper made it up to 82 this afternoon after a morning Low of 55. Haleyville is at 81 at 4 PM, probably their High, Low of 55 this morning. Fort Payne saw a High of 81 and Low of 54. Gadsden had a High of 81 and Low of 56. Huntsville saw a High of 84 and a Low of 59. Looks like the High will be 82 for Scottsboro. They had a Low of 57 this morning. On the other side of the state, Muscle Shoals also started the day at 57 degrees but got up to 83 this afternoon. Looking up across the Tennessee border, Savannah had a High of 82, Low of 57 today. Winchester had a High of 81, Low of 52. Corinth, Mississippi saw a High of 82, Low of 57. And Tupelo had a High of 85, Low of 63. 

We will start to see more of those summertime temperatures over the next few weeks. For right now, we have a weak front draped across Southern Tennessee. It is not bringing us any moisture though. And that front down in Florida is kicking up some weak tropical activity in the Atlantic. A special marine warning had to be issued for some Florida counties today. 

Let's go ahead and take a look at that, since it is the only tropical activity going on, and is no big deal. This disorganized activity is expected to move up into the Carolinas this weekend. It is still expected to produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and some dangerous surf and rip current conditions over the coastal/offshore waters, where some gale warnings have already been issued. 

But it is not expected to develop into a tropical storm. This is getting into the time of year you have to start watching for that, but this looks like it will stay frontal and only produce some minor hazards from Florida up to the Carolinas, less than a tropical storm or hurricane would.



Models have back off on the idea of much rain tomorrow, even the widely scattered rain. Going go with the MOS guidance of a High of 80, Low of 57. And because of the overall pattern and model trends overall (not just latest runs), I'm thinking I'll keep a 20% chance of rain in here for tomorrow. 



Then it still looks like a closed Low will form in our region on Saturday at the southern end of the upper-level trough. Still the rain chances look to stay minimal, about 20%. 



To explain the temperature change between Friday and Saturday, feel like I need to show this more colorful map from WPC, where we have that weak frontal boundary passing through and washing out. 

The night temperature should stay about the same, but the daytime High should drop into upper 70's, about 77-78.



Started to take rain chances out for Sunday, looks like temperatures will be down to lower 70's for Highs and lower 50's for Lows. Probably better to keep a 20% chance of rain in for Sunday. Right now I'm thinking 20% of rain for tomorrow, 30% for Saturday, and then dropping back to 20% for Sunday. Just the progression of this low pressure system makes that look like the best strategy.



Now after that system clears out, the pattern does look like it turns dry. Expecting a High in the upper 70's under sunny skies, morning Low still down in lower 50's. 



Then on Tuesday we stay under that ridge of high pressure. Low temperatures should rebound to the upper 50's while Highs during the day should get back up into the lower 80's. 



May see isolated showers again on Wednesday, but most places probably stay dry. Highs should be in mid-80's and Lows in lower 60's. 



And Thursday looks about the same, minimal chance of rain or a thunderstorm, High in mid-80's, Low  in mid-60's.



Beyond a week out, there is not a whole lot of skill in forecasts, but summer weather tends to be more predictable. And since some media outlets (traditional and newer) are trying to sell this idea to people, of forecasts beyond a week in advance, I'll play along, just for fun. This guidance suggests another day of a High in mid, maybe upper 80's, Low in mid/upper 60's, rain chance of about 20-30%.



Especially taking climatology into account, not sure I'll increase rain chance to 30% for that Saturday, think this is June the 3rd. Mainly just inclined to edge the Highs into upper 80's instead of mid-80's.


Then some hint of moisture levels increasing Sunday into Monday. I guess I'll bump up the rain chance to 30% based on that, but really . . . I'm more taking the piss at these people who expect forecasts at this time range to be taken seriously. 

It's fun to try, but if in doubt, just remember it is getting to be summertime in Alabama. And use your own common sense. Or check the official government forecast, which only goes out seven days, and is usually the most accurate. 

And I may not continue doing these forecasts that include the half-joking tea leaf reading section. For now it makes me chuckle. Maybe this is the thrill people get out of betting on horse races . . . it'd be awesome if I did get something right ten days in advance. Though in summer, the odds are a little better. 

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