Friday, May 26, 2023

Mild, Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Continues Through Memorial Day Weekend

Saturday (High 78, Low 56): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. 

Sunday (High 74, Low 53): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower is still possible, but most places stay dry.

Memorial Day (High 77, Low 52): Sunny. Mild temperatures and dry air.

Tuesday (High 82, Low 55): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 85, Low 62): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Thursday (High 87, Low 64): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday (High 88, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

We had more sun than clouds overall in Cullman today with a High of 79 and a morning Low of 55. 

We've had isolated showers and thunderstorms today, right now mainly along the AL/TN state line. 

The bigger rains have moved up into the Carolinas, associated with that front that was in Florida yesterday.

Those showers and thunderstorms are not well-organized, even though they do extend into the Atlantic Ocean, causing gusty winds and hazardous surf/rip current conditions. It is not trying to develop into any sort of tropical cyclone, and neither is any other activity.

Incidentally NOAA thinks our hurricane season this year will be about normal.

Showers/storms and even clouds have been scarce around here today.

And the focus for those showers and thunderstorms has been along that frontal boundary that is stalled along the state line. This is a weak front, but it is enough to kick up a little bit of scattered rain and even, I saw a storm with small hail near Hazel Green, I think it was, earlier today. We've also still got that closed Low trying to form along the southern end of that upper-level trough.

Tomorrow it looks like the moisture will remain limited to about a 20% chance of rain, more sun than clouds overall, a High of about 77-78 and Low of about 56-57 tonight. That front passing through will knock temperatures down a little, even though the system is very weak in terms of moisture. Then on Sunday again looks like only a minimal 20% chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. High should be down more like 74-75, Low about 53-54. Then on Monday, Memorial Day (quick salute to those people, by the way), we should be sunny again as the low pressure system exits our region to the Northeast. Temperatures should stay mild, High in mid-to-upper-70's, Low in the lower 50's. 

This is a really calm-weather forecast. 

Tuesday looks like another day with plenty of sunshine, not expecting even isolated rain, with a High in the lower 80's and Low in mid-to-upper-50's. As we get toward mid-week temperatures will gradually start to warm, and some moisture will come back, enough for typical summer chance for isolated rain and storms. Looks like on Wednesday we'll still be in the lower-to-mid-80's, Low in the lower 60's with better moisture, also a 20% chance of rain. High might edge into upper 80's on Thursday, rain chance staying the same, minimal, just typical summer type weather. And that trend continues Friday. 

Not feeling like an imp this evening, enough to do a 10-day outlook, but there really are no signs of a big pattern change any time soon beyond the trend toward typical summer weather we are expecting to see middle of next week into the weekend. 

And that's about it. 

Since we are getting into the summer heat soon, I'm going to offer a quick reminder that a lot of kids and pets (sometimes elderly people too) do lose their lives from being left in hot cars every year. I already saw the Weather Channel mentioning some specific cases this year I believe. So as John Gordon (who spun up the Huntsville NWS office with Bud Cramer but is now in Louisville, Kentucky) likes to say: "Beat the heat - check the back seat." 

As far as summer storms, I kind of figure if anybody doesn't have enough sense to get inside when it's lightning, they probably deserve to get torched, if they do. Some people do forget that you can get struck if you're close enough to hear thunder though. And that's true even if the sun is out. So another jingle the National Weather Service likes to use for this time of year is, "When thunder roars, go indoors." 

But to be frank, the weather is so quiet and relatively nice overall for this forecast that I sort of got bored and felt like saying something extra. 

For the most part, my advice to anyone reading this is to enjoy the calm, pleasant weather while we've got it. For all we know, it might be one of our easier summers. Unless I just jinxed it by saying so. And don't take that literally either . . . it's really the luck of the draw . . . but on an amateur weather site, might as well josh around a little. 

Or admit that as great as the folks at NOAA are, they probably don't have a clue what the hurricane season is going to be like. They have to wait and see just like the rest of us. They make their best estimates, but I say, take even those with a chunk of salt. 

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