Saturday, May 27, 2023

Mostly Sunny Skies With Temperatures Lower Than Average

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 78, Low 52): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the morning.

Memorial Day (High 75, Low 53): Mostly sunny. Mild. 

Tuesday (High 81, Low 56): Mostly sunny. A little warmer but staying dry.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 84, Low 61): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 83, Low 63): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday (High 85, Low 64): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 87, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Sunday (High 88, Low 67): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 89, Low 68): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

(Discussion)

We had a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with a High of 75, Low of 61 in Cullman. Jasper saw a High of 79 and Low of 55. In Haleyville the High was 76 after a morning Low of 58.



And at this late hour (after 10 PM) we do have a few isolated showers and storms moving through Limestone, Marshall, and also up in Lawrence/Wayne Counties in Tennessee. The one near Athens looked like it was producing the most lightning. But this is typical summer convection, even if summer has come a little early this year, and we're still kind of mild. We'll warm up more next week. 



The bigger rains are up in the Carolinas and Virginias, where a frontal low is producing disorganized showers/storms and gusty winds, also prompting some gale and storm warnings there for hazardous marine conditions over those waters. 



That activity is showing up well on satellite imagery even at night. And back out along the Rocky Mountains into the Plains and Dakotas, we have thunderstorms going on. 



There is another low pressure system over our region, but the weak front associated with it has pretty well dissipated already. That front that is occluding off the Carolina coast is not expected to develop into a tropical or even subtropical cyclone as that disorganized activity moves more into the Atlantic Ocean.




Taking the national view, we have high pressure and fair weather up in New England, the Great Lakes region, and by contrast we have plenty of rain along and West of the Rocky Mountains region. Some severe thunderstorm potential in Western Texas and another area further North. Some flash flooding risk in Texas and also up in Montana. 



Tomorrow the GFS shows that Low trying to move out of our region but hanging around enough to kick up enough moisture for just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. 

The NAM has us high and dry. Sometimes it is better at this time range, but taking into account all the model runs I've seen the last few days, I think it's reasonable to allow for an isolated shower or two, at least early tomorrow. Overall the day should feature much more sunshine than even any clouds. Should see a High near 77-78 and a Low near 52-53. 




Memorial Day looks mostly sunny too and dry, so if you are fortunate enough to be off work and have any plans outside, should be great. We could see a few more clouds than tomorrow if moisture wraps around as that Low shifts more Southeast. But I question even that happening. Overall it looks like a sunny day for most of us. 



Then plenty of sunshine again for Tuesday, High near 80 or so, Low in the mid-50's.



Then similar weather for Wednesday, think it is safe to take the rain chances out that we had in previous forecasts. But we should have enough moisture return to bring Low temperatures back up into the lower 60's with a High in the lower 80's.



The GFS develops another Low in the Western Gulf now that should affect us Thursday increasing our rain chances. The ECMWF did pick up on this too, but the timing and track was too messy to really compare. I think the American model here has the right general idea. Sticking with lower 80's for the High, lower 60's for the Low, and introducing a 30% chance of rain. Even though the GFS has an aggressive look here, taking the European model into account as well as climatology. And going to cap the probability of precipitation at 30%. 



Another day of unsettled weather on Friday, but I think we can trim the rain chances back to 20%, just isolated showers and storms possible. The High might edge more into the mid-80's.



Then Saturday definitely looks like only a 20% chance of rain. Looking at the overall pattern, I think I need to adjust rain chances to 40% for Thursday, 30% for Friday, and then dropping to 20% for Saturday. That seems most reasonable in a setup like this where we do have to go with probabilities and understand that this is likely to be scattered rain, just one of those low pressure systems coming out of the Gulf in early Summer. High should finally make it up into the upper 80's, more seasonable, and the Low in about the mid-60's.


Peeking a little beyond a reasonable forecast time-frame, next Sunday looks like a drier trend. And temperatures should be in upper 80's again, maybe approaching 90 for some of us. 


Again on Monday the 5th of June, some high pressure may keep us dry. It's a close call, this far out, how much to believe model forecasts and how much to defer to climatology, so may keep a minimal chance of rain in the forecast. But we could get up to 90 degrees with this setup. 



Then on Tuesday June 6, it is showing that High moving off into the Atlantic and relaxing things enough we'd definitely need to bring back the 20% rain chance around here. And I'm not sure how much I buy into these model trends this far out, even this time of year. But a lot of people are doing 10-day forecasts again these days. If they really think the science is that good, then I'll give a try too, but urge you to take any such forecasts with a shovel full of salt. In the official forecast above, I compare it humorously to trying to read tea leaves. I had someone in my family who read fortunes, and I could sort of see where some of it, like reading cards or reading someone's palm had some structure to it, maybe people believe they're really doing something. But I never did buy into tea leaf reading. This gal's mom that I used to work with would come by to visit her daughter and would read tea leaves sometimes at a restaurant. And I just never bought it. I don't think you can look at tea leaves and make anything out, and I always thought people who said they were reading tea leaves were just making it up as they went along. Recently I saw a lawyer on YouTube who called his personal hunches reading tea leaves. So that's what I call it when I venture beyond seven days for a forecast. Don't take it to the bank. It's better than the Farmer's Almanac, but it's really not much better than what you could figure out for yourself with your experience of what the weather does this time of year, and watching the sky. Now out to 5-7 days, the forecasts are pretty good, especially in summer when things get kind of boring compared to other seasons. Beyond that, I strongly urge you to roll your eyes at it, even when I'm the one doing it. By days 8-10, we are looking at trends, at best. 


Rainfall totals should average a quarter-inch or less over the next seven days. And I'm rarely going to show that in summer. Because of the hit-or-miss nature of the showers and storms. 

@thatweatherdude

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