Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Organized Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

This is unusual to see this time of year, but we may see organized severe thunderstorms today/tonight, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes. The threats look a little higher for North Alabama than for Southern Tennessee, and really, the best focus for it will probably be South of Birmingham. But we do have some potential up this way. 

If you live in a mobile home, it is a good day to spend with someone who has a sturdier house that is anchored down to the ground, just to be on the safe side. 

In a site-built home like that, or even an apartment, if you go under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning, then you want to move immediately to a small central room (like a bathroom, closet, or hallway) on the lowest floor you can get to, away from windows. And stay there until you're sure the dangerous part of the storms are past you, or the warning expires. 

Another thing, if you can safely park your car in a place that is safe from hail ahead of any storms, that is another thing to consider. Main thing is protecting life though, like don't get caught driving in any dangerous storms today or tonight, or through flooded roads. Never cross water that covers a road or bridge. 

And any route you drive regularly, you need to have at least three or four places worked out in your mind, where you could pull over, get inside, and take cover if a severe thunderstorm or tornado was moving your way. When the winds get really high in a storm, a vehicle can be one of the most dangerous places to be, although it might be a little safer than a mobile home. Especially since you can drive and park away from any trees that might fall, if you do decide to ride out a really rough storm in a car. 

But best thing to do is plan ahead and get into a sturdy building. Even a gas station or small restaurant is a lot sturdier and safer than a trailer or a car. 

Hopefully we get by without too many problems, but this is anomalous, this pattern for this time of year. You hardly ever see a Level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk for organized severe weather even in South Alabama in the summertime. 

We've got that strong Low spinning up in the Great Lakes region and westerly winds bringing us some weather down this way, along with a stalled frontal boundary. The maps look unusual for June.

So we'll have a High near 80 today. 

Tomorrow showers and storms should be more scattered in nature, still may see more clouds than sun overall, High in lower 80's.

Then as we get into the weekend, Highs should climb back into upper 80's as rain chances go down to about 30%, just widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with a mix of sun and clouds, closer to typical summer weather, Lows in lower-to-mid-60's. 

Looking like Father's Day and Juneteenth may feature another spike in a wider coverage of thunderstorms and rain, about a 50% chance of any one spot getting wet or stormy, Highs dropping more toward mid-80's again but Lows edging into upper 60's.

And then more scattered rain again by next Tuesday, not as widespread. 

If I have time for a more detailed analysis in a day or two, will be interested to see how long this weird pattern hangs on. 


   WOUS40 KWNS 140741




   0241 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi

   Valley and Southeast today into tonight...


     Southern and Central Alabama

     Southern and Central Mississippi

     Southern and Central Georgia

     Northern Louisiana

     Southern Arkansas

   * HAZARDS...

     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force

     A few intense tornadoes

     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...

     Significant severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe

     hazards, including very large hail, swaths of intense wind

     gusts/damage, and tornadoes, are possible across much of the

     Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity and Southeast states today

     into tonight.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility

   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch

   means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

   over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is

   issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 

   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.


   ..Guyer.. 06/14/2023


No comments:

Post a Comment

July Heat Returns Shortly . . .

FORECAST: Friday (High 94, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Cool in the morning, hot in the afternoon.  Saturday (High 96, Low 69): Partly to mostly s...