Sunday, June 11, 2023

Bare Bones Forecast

 As a stormy night winds down, let's take a glance at what is next. 

While the cold front is expected to park down around Montgomery, our weather pattern should remain unsettled through most of this week. 

And by the way, this is another case where I owe the American GFS computer model an apology, since I think it got tomorrow's forecast right after all, picked up on it more than the other models. (And I thought it was rushing things.) 

Because tomorrow, Monday, looks like it will feature plenty of sunshine, gradually decreasing clouds even during the morning hours. High should reach about 80 degrees in the afternoon. 

Might be a degree or two cooler for Tuesday (by the way, overnight Lows should be about 60 or so) as rain chances edge back up as the front waffles back and forth some. I think showers and storms will be scattered on Tuesday, about a 40% chance of any one spot getting wet. 

Then basically a repeat on Wednesday, with the rain chance about 50%, so showers and thunderstorms more numerous across the map. 

So basically a break in the action Monday, mostly sunny skies, High near 80. Not much temperature change Tuesday or Wednesday, High near 80, Low about 60 or so. But on Tuesday rain chance goes back to 40%, Wednesday more like 50%. So showers and storms will range from scattered to numerous across the map. 

Then for the extended, we go into a drying trend. High should climb to mid-80's on Thursday, rain chance down to 40%. Then on Friday, looking at upper 80's, 30% rain chance. 

And for Saturday and Sunday, which will be Father's Day weekend, going with only a 20% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, which is more seasonal, High in upper 80's, Low in mid-to-upper-60's.

I used a National Weather Service forecast to jog my memory from the last forecast I did, I think last night, but did not agree with all of their forecast, so tweaked it according to what I think it's really gonna' do. 

We could easily see 3-4 inches of average rainfall totals and will have to monitor for flash flooding in any stronger showers or storms, or flooding of bodies of water if the same places get the showers and thunderstorms one day after another. 

So this fixes our air quality problems and keeps us out of a drought. And then by the weekend, looks like we get to swelter again. So pick your poison. 

And the forecast for stronger storms definitely verified today across the region. Several instances of wind damage, large hail, and looks like even a couple of isolated tornadoes. Based on the video I saw, I think that one in Crossville, TN will be added to this list later. 

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