Friday, July 21, 2023

Clearing With Mild Temperatures and Low Humidity

Saturday (High 83, Low 67): Isolated lingering showers possible in the morning. Then clearing, becoming mostly sunny, with mild temperatures and low humidity. 

Sunday (High 86, Low 63): Sunny. Mild with low humidity.

Monday (High 89, Low 65): Sunny. Warm with low humidity.

Tuesday (High 91, Low 67): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 92, Low 69): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 91, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Because today was so busy weatherwise, this is going to be a forecast discussion that just hits the high points. 

Before the storms came through Cullman today, we had a High of 90 degrees, and our current temperature as we approach 7 PM of 70 degrees is the Low so far. So those folks at Rock the South should enjoy a good concert tonight, not even have to deal with the heat. 

So our severe weather threat is over, though we do have some rain still moving through and even some flooding issues that are ongoing. Overall I'd say we lucked out today, where the outcomes could have been a lot worse. It looks like even though there were issues and some damage in several places, the warning process worked today, and more importantly, people took some reasonable precautions. Hats off to whoever was monitoring the weather for the concert. Appreciate you making sure those folks were going to be safe before starting the show. You might remember earlier this year there was a rock concert, think it was Morbid Angel, where a tornado hit before the venue got everyone downstairs. And it's even more dangerous for an outdoor show. So I'm glad there was awareness and good decisions made. 

It's kind of unusual to have cold fronts passing all the way through the area in summer instead of stalling out and/or washing out. But this has been a crazy summer. North Carolina even had their first ever E/F-3 tornado for July, with sixteen injuries, two of them life-threatening. And this happened without a hurricane moving inland. Someone from the Huntsville NWS posted on social media that this month had felt like a year. It has for me too, but for a much different reason: I lost a cat I loved dearly, almost exactly a year after I lost my last one. (He died having a seizure, and the vet couldn't figure out what affected his brain. He was my pet through the pandemic; I got him right before all that stuff fired up.) I only had this girl about six weeks before she zoomed out the door one morning, never to return. And since this is an amateur effort, volunteer work you might say, I was ignoring the weather for much of this month, even if it got stormy where I was. I pretty much blew it off. But for people who have this as a job, they have barely caught a break, which is unusual for this month of the year. I've seen people talking about global temperatures being too warm, especially in the oceans, and yes, that is part of the madness, but it's not all of it. I don't remember another year that so many cold fronts have passed through the region in the summertime, and caused so many storms. The only year that I can sort of compare this one to in my memory is 2009. We did have a lot of Mesoscale Convective Systems that summer. I don't recall the details. But this pattern of so many cold fronts actually pushing through here in the hottest part of the year strikes me as bizarre. 

Anyway, on to the forecast. Not worried about any more bad storms tomorrow, and I think any showers we see (and we could have some thunder with a couple of them, yeah) will be in the morning and stay isolated. Since we've already had so much rain-cooling, will forecast a Low of 67 to start the day, and then keep the High at 83 per yesterday's forecast. 

Then on Sunday, high pressure settles into the region behind the cold front. We'll be sunny and warm up to about 85-86 in the afternoon, which is not cool, but it sure is for this time of year. Morning Low should be more toward lower 60's, about 64 or maybe even 63. 

The models show the high pressure more strongly established over the region by Monday, and temperatures should rebound to about 89, we might not quite see 90 again yet. Sunny skies, Low staying in lower to mid-60's. This low humidity is going to feel great, by the way, even tomorrow night for the "big night" of the Rock the South festival, when I believe the headliner is none other than Chris Stapleton. I've got at least a couple of his albums. And I'm one of those oddballs who likes to buy physical copies. That man is insanely talented, a lot like Shooter Jennings, except I think he's made it into the mainstream of modern country more. I love when people now have the guts to play the old style of country music. That's why I loved hearing Alabama last year, even if I couldn't see them . . . just listening was a thrill. 

By Tuesday we'll probably break 90 degrees again, Low in mid-60's, still mostly clear skies. 

And it looks like our streak lasts through Wednesday with minimal if any rain chances, High in lower 90's, Low in upper 60's. These low humidity levels are very rare for this time of year. 

By Thursday we should have enough Gulf moisture flow again to bring back a 20% chance of rain. And that's just our typical isolated summer shower or thunderstorm chance. High in lower 90's again, Low coming up to about 70. 

And I'll keep that same forecast for next Friday. 

Since so many people decided to stop by the blog today, I guess I'll write a more thorough forecast discussion tomorrow or tomorrow night for the week ahead. But the bottom line is, we got through the bad weather mostly okay today, and the weather that is coming in the near future looks unusually nice. So whether you've got a concert to go to or not, I hope you enjoy it. 

Nothing in the tropics worth mentioning. 

It does look kind of stormy at the beach this weekend, but that should start to ease off by Tuesday. Temperatures pretty typical down there. 

Between yesterday and today, we really did have a lot of severe thunderstorm reports across the Southeast, mainly wind damage reports to trees and power lines. But I think the warning process worked great, including people's responses to the weather. So that's good news too. 

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