Thursday, August 24, 2023

Heat Wave Ends Next Week

(Forecast)

Today (High 96, Low 72): Mostly sunny. Very hot and humid. 

Friday (High 95, Low 73): Mostly sunny. Very hot and humid.

Saturday (High 95, Low 73): Mostly sunny. Very hot and humid.

Sunday (High 93, Low 72): Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.

(Extended Outlook)

Monday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 86, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 85, Low 65): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 87, Low 64): Mostly sunny.

(Tea Leaves Territory)

Friday September 1st (High 89, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday September 2nd (High 90, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday September 3rd (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Labor Day (High 88, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

(Beach Forecast)

Today (High 95, Low 79): Sunny and hot.

Friday (High 95, Low 76): Sunny.

Saturday (High 98, Low 77): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

Sunday (High 99, Low 79): Mostly sunny with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. 

Next week (Highs in mid-90's, Lows in upper-70's): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

(Pronóstico)

Hoy (Máxima 96, Mínima 72): Mayormente soleado. Mucho calor y humedad.

Viernes (Máxima 95, Mínima 73): Mayormente soleado. Mucho calor y humedad.

Sábado (Máxima 95, Mínima 73): Mayormente soleado. Mucho calor y humedad.

Domingo (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Es posible que se produzcan una lluvia o tormenta aislada.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Lunes (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 85, Mínima 65): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 87, Mínima 64): Mayormente soleado.

(Territorio de las Hojas de Té)

Viernes primero de septiembre (Máxima 89, Mínima 66): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado segundo de septiembre (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo tercero de septiembre (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Día Laboral (Máxima 88, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Pronóstico de la Playa)

Hoy (Máxima 95, Mínima 79): Soleado y caluroso.

Viernes (Máxima 95, Mínima 76): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 98, Mínima 77): Mayormente soleado con posible lluvia o tormenta aislada.

Domingo (Máxima 99, Mínima 79): Mayormente soleado, con posibilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas aisladas.

La próxima semana (Máximas a mediados de los 90, Mínimas en los 70 superiores): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

(Notes)

Here are some reminders about staying safe in rip currents at the beach. 

We are under a Heat Advisory, and if you know of anybody who might leave their kids or even a pet in a hot car, please try to discourage that sort of thing while the heat really is dangerous, hottest it's been this year. 

The National Weather Service offices that serve Tennessee (including Huntsville) have made preparedness pages available in English and Spanish. I'm toying around with Spanish forecasts sometimes, so if any native speakers see room for improvement, feel free to leave me a comment. And I'll fix anything that needs fixing. I used to be pretty sharp with the language, but it is a matter of use it or lose it. And I've lost a lot of it. As many burritos as I eat, I almost owe it to the culture to brush up on the language again. 

(Discussion)






At 11:15 PM, due to some fog and mist in the area, visibility in Cullman is down to 5 miles. The temperature is 77 degrees, same dewpoint, making the relative humidity 100%. Winds are calm. Pressure is 30.06 inches and steady.

We had a High of 93 and Low of 72 today, but the Heat Index got up to 107 under sunny summer skies. The High in Jasper got up to 97, Heat Index got up to 113, after a morning Low of 72. Haleyville had a High of 95, Low of 72 - Heat Index topped out at 107 there. 

Decatur had a High of 98, Low of 75. Huntsville had a High of 96 and Low of 75. Fort Payne got up to 95, Low of 70. Gadsden had a High of 95, Low of 73. Other side of the state, Muscle Shoals had a High of 97 after a morning Low of 75. 

Up across the Tennessee state line, Winchester had a High of 95 and Low of 72. Fayetteville had a High of 93, Low of 73. There was a little more cloud cover throughout the day in Chattanooga, but they still got up to 95, Low of 78. Nashville got up to 98 after a Low of 77. Noticing some muggier air up on the Tennessee side, of course the big cities also get this urban heat island effect where the asphalt traps a lot of the heat overnight compared to smaller towns or places out in the country. Really see that in Memphis, High of 98, Low of 81. That's more like a stuffy day down at the beach. 

And some of the other cities in the region, Birmingham had a High of 97, Low of 77. Atlanta actually had a decent amount of cloud cover today and only got up to 92 degrees, morning Low of 82. I think that's the only site I've noticed where the Heat Index did not break 100 for Wednesday. And it has just turned Thursday, stroke of Midnight, but all these observations of course are for Wednesday August 23rd. And Tupelo had a High of 96, Low of 76. Their heat index got up to 111. 

When the heat gets this bad, heat exhaustion and heatstroke become very real concerns. So we've had heat advisories issued across the area. 


And that dome of high pressure is not going anywhere fast. We'll have to wait for a frontal boundary to change the pattern late this weekend. Other parts of the country are having some rain and thunderstorms, actually some heavy rain out in New Mexico, of all places, but a dying tropical system has been moving through there. And they recently had heavy rains in Las Vegas from another dying tropical system that hit Baja California and then moved inland. Showers and storms stretch from South Texas to Mobile down to places like Pensacola and Miami. Then a front is bringing some stronger storms to places like North Dakota, also Ohio and around the Great Lakes. Got some showers stretching up into parts of New England, like Pennsylvania and New York State. But it is dry and hot from most of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, back through Alabama and Tennessee and actually into the Mid-South and Midwest, hottest week of the year is what it's been for many of us. And as I say, it has been a time when the heat has been dangerous by anybody's standards. 



The pattern will continue today with mostly sunny skies, High near 95, but with the humidity, it will feel like it is over 100 degrees, and be just as dangerous to stay out in as if it really was. Low tonight near 73. 



And on Friday the upper-level heat dome retreats a little to our West, but surface high pressure remains firmly in place here. Still see no reason to bring back enough rain chances to shake a stick at, just more blistering heat, High of 95-96, Low in lower 70's again. 

Might reverse the order based on this guidance though, High of 96 for Thursday and 95 for Friday. 



Then on Saturday as the heat dome relaxes majorly, a front will be dropping into our region, probably a dry one, or mostly dry. 




Here is a better visual of it between Saturday evening and early Monday. Than what you can see on the raw model data. 

Looks like another sunny day Saturday though, High in mid-90's, Low in lower 70's. And as in all recent days, the humidity will likely jack the heat indices up over 100 for many of us. 



By Sunday we need to mention a minimal 20% chance of rain. And the High might drop a degree or two. But the models have slowed down the timing of this front slightly so that we may not get much relief from the heat until Monday. 



Again on Monday a minimal 20% chance of rain, mix of sun and clouds, and the High may just barely dip back into the upper 80's, Low near 70. 



Again for Tuesday, just a mix of sun and clouds and that standard 20% chance of a passing summer shower or thunderstorm or two. The upper-level Northwest wind flow may keep temperatures down some, probably mid-to-upper-80's here, Low in upper 60's. Which compared to what we've had is really mild. 



By Wednesday the Northwest flow and the troughing over the Eastern CONUS should be getting better established. The models are not great at predicting rain chances per se this time of year, but they often get the upper-level pattern right anyway. 

One example of the crazy scenarios models can paint at long-range is that glancing at the European model, it wants to bring a hurricane up through the Florida panhandle and Georgia. Not even going to show that graphic, as such wacky scenarios are notoriously unreliable at this time range. Only mentioning it because I'm not keeping up with Twitter now that Elon Musk has succeeded in basically destroying what was left of it. And I can only imagine how some people are raving about this rogue guidance on there and other social media platforms that I quit a long time ago. There used to be a woman in the Birmingham television market who loved to post rogue guidance like that, especially if it showed a lot of snow. Probably still working at the station I'm thinking of. But that was so goofy to do. 

Anyway Wednesday looks the most comfortable day we've had in a while, High in the mid-80's, Low in the mid-60's. Plenty of sunshine, and we can drop the rain chances again. 



Looks like the pattern flattens out some on Thursday, and temperatures should moderate, but still just upper 80's for the High, and mid . . . maybe even lower 60's for the Low, air looks to stay pretty dry. 



And I'll take the piss out of the TV stations doing 10-Day Outlooks, show that I can do it too, but with the understanding that reliability really drops off in this time frame. In the summer/early Fall, maybe you can get away with it. In the really dynamic weather patterns, an outlook this far out is next to useless. You'd probably do as well reading a Farmer's Almanac. But it looks like a High in the upper 80's, Low in the mid-60's, enough Southwest flow to bring back a minimal 20% chance of rain Friday.



Basically the same for Saturday, High might rebound to about 90 by then. 



Then on Sunday, the GFS wants to drop that longwave trough down into our region and really spike up the rain chances all of a sudden. Which is why I make fun of 10-day forecasts. It would be ridiculous to base a forecast on this literally. But I'll bring the rain chance up to 30% for Sunday the 3rd of the new month. We'll have a High in upper 80's, Low near 70 probably. 


The tropics are getting active lately. The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily are about 1,000 miles East/Southeast of Bermuda. This tropical storm will likely regenerate by Friday as the system moves Northward and upper-level winds relax enough to allow it to redevelop.

There is also an area of low pressure several hundred miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands. Low chance of it developing over next couple days, but then over the weekend, it may form a tropical depression as it drifts West/Northwest into the Central Tropical Atlantic.



Tropical Storm Franklin is on its way out of the Dominican Republic but is still causing some heavy rains and strong winds there tonight. It is expected to reach hurricane strength as we get into next week, and Sunday and Monday, folks in Bermuda will want to keep an eye on it just in case. Depending on how close the spiral bands or even the eyewall were to get to the island, they might need to open up the shelters for tourists and residents. They take great care of people there whenever there is a hurricane. I forget the name of it, but they had a major hurricane hit there a few years ago, and I don't recall hearing about anybody getting hurt. They use good sense on that island. I wish people around here used half that much sense during tornado season. Thinking back to that tornado that hit Rolling Fork, Mississippi, and how a lot of people really didn't have a safe place to go, really poor communities. And then you've got this tiny island that doesn't even fear the really bad hurricanes, because they've made plans to take care of everybody. It looks like Bermuda could get some impacts from Franklin as it gets up to Hurricane Franklin status early next week, but it is a close call. It may stay far enough to the West that they barely get any impacts. Too soon to make that call. 


Rainfall amounts around here are expected to stay under a quarter-inch for this forecast period, and probably under a tenth of an inch for most of us. 

Decided to make it a 12-Day Forecast just for fun. But only the first eight days are reliable. 

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