Friday, August 25, 2023

Watching the Tropics


A few of my own comments: That system moving through the Caribbean/Gulf is well worth watching for folks in Florida as well as for people in Cuba and the Yucatan. It is unlikely to directly affect Alabama even if it does fire up as it moves more into the Gulf. Sometimes the ECMWF has wanted to bring it up through Florida and Georgia, but it is too soon to put a whole lot of stock in speculations like that. I do think it will form a tropical cyclone by next week. Might even become a hurricane. If I was in Florida, I'd be watching this one closely, especially the panhandle. 

The latest European guidance is showing it eventually next week, Wednesday into Thursday, moving through about where the Florida Panhandle and Peninsula meet and tracking through at least Eastern Georgia before going into the Atlantic. The GFS guidance did not impress me but has a fairly similar track and keeps the system a lot weaker. If the ECMWF is right, this could become a hurricane before landfall. And I've found it really reliable over the years with tropical cyclones. 

Truth is it's too soon to make a good forecast for this potential tropical cyclone though. 

It's just fun to speculate on. And if I lived in Florida, I would be watching and preparing to be on the safe side. 

Tropical Storm Franklin will likely pass to the West of Bermuda at hurricane strength Monday and Tuesday. Any impacts to the island will probably be minimal. 

Local weather, we stay in mid-90's with heat indices well over 100 due to the humidity, sunny skies through tomorrow. Tomorrow night into Sunday we'll have a shot at some isolated showers and thunderstorms, and that will last into Monday with Highs near 90, maybe dropping into upper 80's by Monday as a frontal boundary moves through. Lows will start to dip into the upper 60's in the wake of that boundary, and we'll see mostly sunshine again from Tuesday through the rest of next week, Highs in mid-80's and Lows in the lower 60's generally. Air will be really dry in the extended. 

Yesterday was the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. This time of year also brought us some other historic hurricanes such as Katrina and Isaac.  

My gut feeling is that by Wednesday or Thursday of this coming week, we'll have a tropical storm or hurricane aiming at that sweet spot where the Florida panhandle and the peninsula meet, or maybe the northern part of the peninsula. For now, I wouldn't make any plans based on such speculations though. I'd wait for this system to at least become a tropical depression this weekend or early part of next week, and see how the forecasts look then. 

Here is a review of hurricane safety. It's better to be prepared, and then if the system turns out to only be a tropical storm, you can breathe a sigh of relief and go on about your business. It is looking likely for something to develop and come up into the Gulf though. 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of 

the Turks and Caicos Islands. 


1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is 

producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 

conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 

during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to 

form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally 

northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of 

Mexico.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, 

and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):

A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast 

of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is 

producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and 

thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are becoming less 

favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected 

to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in 

the next day or so.  For additional information on this system, 

including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 

National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


3. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 

an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde 

Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions 

could become more conducive for development this weekend, and a 

tropical depression could form by early next week while the system 

moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical 

Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 

found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 

online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Kelly/Blake




000

WTNT33 KNHC 250840

TCPAT3


BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023


...FRANKLIN HOLDING STEADY BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS

WEEKEND...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 68.0W

ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was 

located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 68.0 West. Franklin is 

moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this 

general motion is expected to continue today.  A sharp turn toward 

the north is expected tonight and Saturday, with a northward or 

north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing 

through early next week.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 

gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin will likely 

become a hurricane over the weekend.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)

from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi


000

WTCA43 TJSJ 250930

TCPSP3


BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Franklin Advertencia Número 19

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL    AL082023

Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR

500 AM AST viernes 25 de agosto de 2023


...FRANKLIN SE MANTIENE ESTABLE PERO SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE 

FORTALECERÁ ESTE FIN DE SEMANA...



RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

LOCALIZACIÓN...22.7N 68.0O

ALREDEDOR DE 215 MI...345 KM ENE DE LA ISLA DE GRAND TURK

ALREDEDOR DE 690 MI...1110 KM SSO DE BERMUDA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ENE O 75 GRADOS A 6 MPH...9 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS



VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.



DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 

Franklin estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 22.7 norte, longitud 

68.0 oeste. Franklin se está moviendo hacia el este-noreste a cerca 

de 6 mph (9 km/h) y se espera que este movimiento general continúe 

hoy. Se espera un giro brusco hacia el norte esta noche y el 

sábado, con un movimiento hacia el norte o hacia el norte-noroeste 

sobre el oeste del Atlántico continuando hasta principios de la 

próxima semana.


Los vientos máximos sostenidos permanecen cerca de 60 mph (95 km/h) 

con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento gradual, y 

Franklin probablemente se convierta en un huracán durante el fin de 

semana.


Vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 105 millas (165 km) 

del centro.


La presión mínima central estimada es de 1000 mb (29.53 pulgadas).



PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Ninguno.



PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.


$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi


000

WTNT43 KNHC 250841

TCDAT3


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023

500 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023


Franklin has generally changed little during the past several hours. 

 The storm remains strongly sheared with the low-level center 

partially exposed near the western edge of the main area of deep 

convection.  Cloud tops are quite cold on the system's east side, 

but the storm continues to lack convective symmetry.  The initial 

intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier Air Force 

reconnaissance data, which is a little above the current satellite 

intensity estimates.


The storm is moving slowly to the east-northeast at about 5 kt in 

weak steering currents near the base of a broad mid- to upper-level 

trough.  A north to north-northwest motion is expected to commence 

tonight or early Saturday as ridging builds to the east of Franklin 

over the central Atlantic.  This motion should bring the core of the 

system to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.  The storm is 

likely to turn northeastward and accelerate by the middle of next 

week when it should move in the faster flow between the ridge and a 

mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeast 

U.S.  In general, the models have shifted westward this cycle, and 

the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.


Continued moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear should 

limit strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours.  However, more 

significant strengthening seems likely in a day or two when the 

shear decreases while Franklin remains over warm water and in a 

relatively moist environment.  Franklin is expected to become a 

hurricane over the weekend and should reach a peak intensity near 

major hurricane strength early next week.  The strengthening trend 

should end around day 4, at which time the storm is forecast to 

begin moving over cooler waters and into an environment of stronger 

shear. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and this 

forecast is quite similar to the previous one.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT  25/0900Z 22.7N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  25/1800Z 22.8N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  26/0600Z 23.3N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  26/1800Z 24.1N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  27/0600Z 25.3N  67.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  27/1800Z 26.9N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  28/0600Z 28.6N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 96H  29/0600Z 33.0N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  30/0600Z 39.2N  63.9W   85 KT 100 MPH


$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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