Saturday, October 7, 2023

Cool and Dry Pattern

(Forecast)

Sunday (High 66, Low 40): Sunny. Cool.

Columbus Day (High 73, Low 43): Sunny. Cool.

Tuesday (High 77, Low 46): Mostly sunny. Mild.

(Extended Outlook)

Wednesday (High 76, Low 51): Partly cloudy.

Thursday (High 78, Low 57): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Friday (High 75, Low 60): Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 69, Low 53): Mostly sunny.

(Pronóstico)

Domingo (Máxima 66, Mínima 40): Soleado. Fresco.

Día de la Raza (Máxima 73, Mínima 43): Soleado. Fresco.

Martes (Máxima 77, Mínima 46): Mayormente soleado. Leve.

(Perspectiva Extendida)

Miércoles (Máxima 76, Mínima 51): Parcialmente nublado.

Jueves (Máxima 78, Mínima 57): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 53): Mayormente soleado.

(Notes)

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is doing SKYWARN classes and is holding Open House a week from today as well. The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding Weather101 classes starting mid-month. 

(Discussion)







At midday, skies are sunny in Cullman with North winds in the 10-20 mile per hour range. The temperature is 57 degrees. The dewpoint is 41, making the relative humidity 55%. The pressure is 30.20 inches and rising slowly. The Low this morning was 48. 

It is sunny and 63 in Jasper. The Low this morning was 54. It is sunny and 57 in Haleyville. The Low there was 48. 

Fort Payne is sunny and 60 degrees. Gadsden is sunny and 62. Sunny and 59 in Decatur, winds have been gusting over 20 mph there. Huntsville is sunny and 61. Chattanooga is sunny and 61, more of a Northwest component to the winds there at 10 mph. Northwest winds at 9 mph in Memphis, sunny and 61 degrees there. Partly cloudy, North winds at 13 mph in Nashville, temperature of 59 degrees. 

The latest cold front has cleared the area, and we have some cool dry air with that high pressure system moving in behind it. 

We'll probably get up to about 65-67 degrees this afternoon. 



It's great weather for the fair. We'll get down to about 40 degrees tonight and then another sunny, cool day tomorrow with a High again in the mid-to-upper-60's, probably about 66 for the High tomorrow. 



Then on Monday we'll start the day again in the lower 40's, sunny skies, warm to at least 70 degrees in the afternoon, probably looking at lower 70's.



And we stay sunny on Tuesday with temperatures rebounding a little bit, High in the mid-70's and Low in the upper 40's. 



On Wednesday a shortwave trough moves into the region, but it is looking like the rain will mainly stay to our South with this one, just an increase in clouds up this way, and Low temperatures rebounding to the lower 50's, High staying in mid-70's.



Might bring back rain chances for Thursday, but if so, only a 20% chance, and for now, leaning toward just leaving them out, probably a mix of sun and clouds, High in mid/upper 70's and Low in mid/upper 50's.



A more organized system will be moving from the Plains into the Ohio River Valley on Friday, and the trailing cold front may bring us some rain and/or thunderstorms on Friday. Still think I'll keep the chance at 20-30% here. High should be in mid-70's, Low closer to 60 with some humidity ahead of this front. 



Then on Saturday we should be on the other side of the front, clearing skies again, High back into the upper 60's and the Low back down in the lower 50's or at least down to mid-50's.


A tropical wave at the lower latitudes off the West coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and is expected to move West-Northwest across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and form a tropical depression over about the next week. 


Then we have Tropical Storm Lidia in the Eastern Pacific. 



Which is expected to reach hurricane strength Tuesday before moving inland into West-Central Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Once it's inland, of course, the rough terrain, lots of mountains down there, is likely to weaken it quickly down to depression strength over about a day's time. But I'd encourage anyone in the path to still take reasonable hurricane precautions


Our rainfall totals around here are not going to be that much for this forecast period. Regionwide it should be less than one inch, and most of us are likely to see less than a half-inch over the next seven days. Any rain would probably be Thursday and Friday. Could see a shower or two Wednesday, but the chance is pretty low. This is the driest time of year. 

After looking back over everything, I think a 40% chance of rain is justified for next Friday, which still means scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most or all the rain will probably be over Saturday morning. 

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